Mathematically Predicting the Future?

[Thunderdog]

Quote from MarkBrown:

ok it has been said that someone possibly could predict the market one bar in advance. what about predicting the price action like 20-30 bars in advance?

if you could do that you could make some money. but i dont even think you would have to be that accurate either to make big bucks.

You are referring to the earlier comment that "...there is a small degree of predictability for the next bar, only." So if it can be barely done with one bar, if that, then why would you venture to 20, 30 or beyond, where it only gets that much murkier? What could possibly be your theoretical basis for trying?

Put it this way. If you could definitively predict only one bar in advance, even if it were just a one-minute bar, you would eventually control the world.

 

[ElCubano]

if u can "predict the next bar" then why not the next and the next and the next???

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from ElCubano:

if u can "predict the next bar" then why not the next and the next and the next???

And they told two friends who told two friends and so on...

 

[indahook]

First off let me say that this is one of the best threads that has shown up in awhile! Thanks to Mark Brown for hanging around and sharing.

Quote from MarkBrown:

Mathematically Predicting the Future?

Are we not mathematically predicting the future by calculating our Expectancy?


Good trading to you,
C

 

[bgp]

go down 3/4 of this page and look at the dow chart. yes this is mathematic's .

bgp

www.quicktakespro.com/blog/index.blog?start=1192810559

 

[bgp]

that post was put out by fsc back in august, so it is legit.

bgp

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from indahook:

...Are we not mathematically predicting the future by calculating our Expectancy?

You may call it that, but it's not really the case. To calculate expectancy you need a probability distribution of future market prices. Such a thing doesn't really exist for future prices no matter how much we may squint to try and make it so. What you have is an approximation based on guesstimates or past data. Hardly the stuff of mathematical precision.

Similarly, a calculator is an electronic instrument that allows you to take two seat-of-the-pants estimates, multiply them, and get accuracy to the 8th decimal point.

 

[MoveTimer]

Quote from MarkBrown:

Mathematically Predicting the Future?
...
Inquiring Minds wanna know, your thoughts. mb

it is possible

read posts by harrytrader. His model is an ultimate one. Read my journal
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=95127

my model is coarse approximation of harry's stuff. The core idea is the same but realization differs.

Read also posts of my2cents, his model is based on program trading analysis and it's much more powerful than mine.

The most important thing here: market driven by human sentiment cannot be modeled because people are irrational. The existence of such models is the indirect proof of the statement that market is not driven by human sentiment rather by computer generated trading. Computer generated trading activity can be formalized, modelled and so predicted.

 

[Cesko]

First off let me say that this is one of the best threads that has shown up in awhile! Thanks to Mark Brown for hanging around and sharing.

What??
:eek: :eek:

This thread is totally absolutely useless for practical purposes.

 

[indahook]

Quote from Cesko:

First off let me say that this is one of the best threads that has shown up in awhile! Thanks to Mark Brown for hanging around and sharing.

What??
:eek: :eek:

This thread is totally absolutely useless for practical purposes.

From a philosophical standpoint it is not...

Lets face it, lately ET is not standing out for its discussion of practical trading ideas.