Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Quote from NoDoji:

The initial short entry was much earlier, break of the descending triangle.

....Chasing momentum once a move is well underway is low probability; ...

Inexperienced traders can end up with a bad losing day if they chase momentum, ...

Or they'll keep jumping in and out of trades in the same direction as the momentum move, taking loss after loss, again long after price has stated clearly, "I'm going the other way now!"

Chasing, then revenge trading, very common.
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As day traders, we like to stay positioned if a trend is on, or reverse if a reversal signal is put in.

... Keep your eye open for 2-leg pullbacks to the 20, very common, as it was here. That's why I personally use the either/or for entering. Either price doesn't make it to the 20 bar MA, meaning the downside pressure is strong, so I short the breakout of the previous S level; or price works its way back to the 20 MA via a little 2-leg pullback, so I short the break of a previous bar's low IF price doesn't break through the 20 first.

If price breaks through the 20 and a bar closes above it, on it, or only a little bit below it, that is a red flag for me and I may then wait for a bear trap long setup....
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If long, I would then reverse short again when price broke the 20 MA, failed to break previous R, and broke back down through the 20. That small red bar with the low at the 20 MA is my setup bar, and a break of its low is my entry trigger to the short side.
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If price found support again near previous S in the range, I wash, rinse and repeat until finally positioned for the break either direction (though down was most likely, because one should always assume continuation until proven otherwise and we're still remaining closed beneath the moving average).

Once that range breaks, a possible measured move is in play. Take the distance from the opening spike high to the 8:30-ish pivot low, then subtract that number from the range high around 8:00am. I can't tell exact numbers from your chart but it looks like an initial target for a measured move would be about 12100.
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Thanks for the chart! Loved it as usual! You taught me what a daytrader should be thinking. I want to build my intuitive thoughts routine too.

I reviewed all my past stats(from passt 100 trades). I took 10 of "chasing momentum" trades. 9 failed, only 1 trade nailed a tiny points. I either didn't chase it properly, or I shaked out from the trade. Good thing is I took the trade out when I saw no FT. But like you mentioned, the stopped out from Momentum trades clouded my decision, I often lost focus and missed the best pullback trade setup that came in later. So the opportunity cost of trying the "chasing MO trades" are high. So I am completely taking "chasing MO" trades now from my trading plan. I prefer to let it pass since it's not part of my plan now.

The first triangle breakout trade is something I get hurt very often too. Because most of breakout fails in YM. But in this case, The breakout bar has a solid shaved body close; it violated the previous support level. It formed a LL then a LHs; triangle formation, and its a 2 attempt failed to break to the up side. Odds more to the down side. So this should be the breakout I will consider to take next time!

The 2 leg pullback trade (especially PB to EMA) is the only major setup I am currently focusing on. The set up that I want to "OWN". It seems easy, but to me it does take a lot more practice! Especially when it happened in bear trend. I often missed it since it's either never look good or it happened fast. Need more work on that! Lately I have been paying a lot more attention to Bar close and open at EMA. Thank you for letting me know how you viewed it.
I remember you mentioned before. It's very important for daytrader to plan/think step ahead while trading. This is very true.
 
Quote from Matcha:

The first triangle breakout trade is something I get hurt very often too. Because most of breakout fails in YM. But in this case, The breakout bar has a solid shaved body close; it violated the previous support level. It formed a LL then a LHs; triangle formation, and its a 2 attempt failed to break to the up side. Odds more to the down side. So this should be the breakout I will consider to take next time!
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The breakout of a descending/ascending triangle in 6E and CL most often just run hard, so I take them first time every time.

However, if in YM those types of breaks tend to fail more often, consider the second-mouse entry. In the example I posted on your chart above, it appears that there's an excellent second mouse entry if you look at your 1-min chart. Price breaks a little, wiggles a little, and you enter at the same price off the wiggle, and can then use a very tight stop!
 
Quote from xroads:

You will be able to judge if you are progressing when you notice that you are recognizing price activity in a manner that becomes intuitive to yourself. This is no easy task and may never be realized. However, if there is recognition, further development/evolution will manifest itself naturally through the identification of parameters and construction of a setup that becomes one's own. Only then, you will know that you have arrived.
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Wow, this really resonated with me. I've done exactly that and I naively believe I can easily share with others what took me thousands of hours of analysis, screen time and experience to achieve.

In reality, we must all put in the time and then create something that's our own.

I had a very experienced trader try to drum common sense trend-following in to my head for a year and a half; but, no, I had to take a long and dangerous road to get to the same destination that he'd basically handed me a first class airline ticket to. :eek:
 
Glad that I stayed disciplined today. Took 3 trades.

I missed the morning 7:40 shorts today. I was thinking of going long at that time. After a strong 7:40 breakout bar that break down from EMA and major support level. I thought about taking the short here and just “get in with the flow”, but still too slow to react.

From last few weeks lesson- after missing a move, I should stay focus and patiently wait for another setup. So I did today. Trade 1 is the 2nd signal of my setup.

Trade 1: 9:51short. Failed H2. Breakout from triangle pattern. Strong signal bar. Took 20Pts profit here as planed.

Then market turned to a messy trappy area here. This was where I used to take all the “oh, no, I missed the move, I want to be in, isn’t this is my setup?” kind of revenge trades. Today, I SOH.

Trade 2: 11:58. Breakout PB; D/B PB and a 2 leg pullback long setup. Stopped out. Lesson learned: if the entry bar immediately turned to be a doji bar. Time to get out and wait for more confirmation. Besides I was still in a BW zone here. -15Pts

Trade 3: Stay focus and alert helped to enter this trade. After being stopped out from Trade2, I didn’t give up this time. I wend long after I saw a strong Break out bar @12.:20. Its another 2 leg pullback setup +Breakout Pullback long. Trailed my stop, took profit at Measuerd move point and next S/R level. +24pts Market continued to head higher.

Stay 100% focus really helped today’s trades. I begin to understand more how important it is. Because you just never know what market is going to give you @ next 0.001 second.

MD- “every moment is different and unique”. “Anything can happen”

PnL: 29Pts. 3 trades
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Matcha,

"Now you begin to understand"

I watch here from the ether of cyberspace as you progress and grow, and you are indeed a joy and a wonder to behold.

As the months pass and you continue to move forward, learn to know and understand your method, such that your continued use of it becomes, "unconscious and increasingly more proficient".

Study and nurture your method from the perspective as if you would, if you were looking into the eyes of your own child. Because in truth,....it really is. The seedling ideas may have come from many others on the outside, but what is now blossoming for all to see comes from inside of you.

Just remember that along the way,......plant some seedlings for others, under who's shade you may never sit.

You have boosted my spirit,.....and that I believe, .... is how one gets to the next level.
 
Quote from KDASFTG:

Matcha,

"Now you begin to understand"

I watch here from the ether of cyberspace as you progress and grow, and you are indeed a joy and a wonder to behold.

As the months pass and you continue to move forward, learn to know and understand your method, such that your continued use of it becomes, "unconscious and increasingly more proficient".

Study and nurture your method from the perspective as if you would, if you were looking into the eyes of your own child. Because in truth,....it really is. The seedling ideas may have come from many others on the outside, but what is now blossoming for all to see comes from inside of you.
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Thank you for nice words, Master K! You are the one that woke me up from fairy tale dream last week. And thank you for give me some more advice on how to study and nurture the method.

"Understanding the lesson is infinitely better than knowing, but it doesn't mean you own it".

I am in the process of OWN IT and CONSISTENTLY ACT ON IT. There will be a lot more kick in the asses ahead, back and forth. I am prepared.

Quote from KDASFTG:


Just remember that along the way,......plant some seedlings for others, under who's shade you may never sit.
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WIll sure do!!:p
 
Quote from Matcha:

Glad that I stayed disciplined today. Took 3 trades.
......
Then market turned to a messy trappy area here. This was where I used to take all the “oh, no, I missed the move, I want to be in, isn’t this is my setup?” kind of revenge trades. Today, I SOH.
.....
Stay 100% focus really helped today’s trades. I begin to understand more how important it is. Because you just never know what market is going to give you @ next 0.001 second.
...

PnL: 29Pts.
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Hi Matcha,

I am so happy for you for your excellent performance in today's trading. Not only the very nice PnL, it's the discipline and the thought process that went into it. You deserved an "A" for your effort!!!!!

I loved this: :) "..... “oh, no, I missed the move, I want to be in, isn’t this is my setup?” kind of revenge trades. Today, I SOH. :) Next time I am in this situation, I will remember what you said!

I made a few more trades than you today. Net +1.50 ES pts. Today, I tried to stay focus on the price action 90% of the time and only used the indicators as a quick confirmation.

Keep up the good work!

--po
 
Took 3 trades. Need to continue working on entries and trade management.

Trade 1: 7:11 long. Pullback. The maximum initial run up is 37pts. I didn’t take profit there, instead I decided to hold through one retrace. When the bars started to overlapping. I took the 22pts profit. I think I need to look into taking the next ideal profit at 30pts if market offers the strong initial run up.

Market formed some large bear bars, 8:15. market sets up a H-S continuation pattern, Breakout pullback and a failed D/T pullback short. I passed the trade since I was still a little too concerned about the overlapping horizontal flag PA behavior. But now in hindsight, this should qualify as a strong buy even it’s in overlapping behavior. (Jan 14th chart has the same setup). The retrace is shallow, not even at 38% Fib level. There is large “space” between swing low 12136 and the break out point/resistant level at 12120. All of the bars have “some distance” with EMA. The signal bars is very strong. And possible the 2nd push of the day. All these conditions signal the trend is very strong. I will have to take this next time. No reason to let it pass!

Trade 2: Long 11:19. Large 2 leg pullback long. Failed Break out. First EMA gap buy. Took the trade out when I saw the follow through bear reversal bar that close below EMA. b/e. Then I took a short to fade the large bull bar.

Trade 3: short. 11:30 L1 short, or 3rd push down in a bear leg(a wedge bull flag). I only took scalp points since it’s still a strong bull day.

Then I look for an entry to go long but nothing sets up. So I called it a day.

PnL: 32Pts. 3 trades.
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Took 3 trades today. One trade was done by platform error.

Trade 1: 7:00am Short. I clicked “Ask” in the Maxtrix, nothing was executed. I thought it was either my mouse problem or the TS SIM platform problem. I clicked order again. 2 contracts were filled. So I quickly exit one contract at market. The other order was stopped out by the bull reversal bar. It was a rapid +16 pts initial run to B/E type of trade. Total-7Pts

Trade 2: Long.8:35am First pullback long after micro-wedge reversal in trading range day. It’s also a 2nd entry to go long. A HL. Good entry but the trade management was poor. I was shaken out by bear reversal bar @8:45 and the Doji bar at 8:50. I exited without waiting for the market hit my trailing stop. Gave up half of the run. “Shaken out of the trade” shows I wasn’t confident enough to enter the trade initially. It was true that this was the first time that I enter a first pullback trade after a strong bear micro-wedge reversal in a potential large trading range day. The outside in type of trade. More practice will help me stay in with the trade next time. +16pt

No set up for me in later session. SOH

PnL: 9pts. 3 trades
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