NoD - Priceless summation; Great technical review
Matcha - Hang in there sweetie
Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal
- Thread starter Matcha
- Start date
Matcha - Hang in there sweetie
I think you are evaluating too many things and missing the context as a result.
Remove everything from your chart except the price bars. The 20-bar MA is optional, because you can draw or visualize trend lines instead.
Keep a 1-min chart for cross-reference if you want. This is also very optional and not really necessary. A 1-min chart can help you see internal double tops and double bottoms a bit more clearly at times, and you can see the price waves inside large/whippy/spiky 5-min bars when the price action's sloppy. Sloppy price action is usually the signal to sit on hands, but it can occasionally present a good opportunity when viewed through the microscope of the 1-min chart.
Now with only price bars in front of you and a 20 EMA or a couple simple trend lines, you have everything you need.
Matcha
For a 20 bar ema to generate a true reading at the opening bell we need the 20 bars prior to the 930 bar... I noticed this on your 9-24-10 chart (seemed way out of whack). I always want to scroll your charts to the left and see what's back there!! Here's a chart of today (9-30) for a comparison. I know your vwap begins at the open (and I have issues with that too) but other indicators that generate signals need the prior data to calculate the averages they use. When I look at your charts, prior to the opening session line there always appears to be missing bars. These are important especially when 830 news generates a large group of high "volume" bars. One more point the 20ma on my chart is 20 bars EMA "close".
For a 20 bar ema to generate a true reading at the opening bell we need the 20 bars prior to the 930 bar... I noticed this on your 9-24-10 chart (seemed way out of whack). I always want to scroll your charts to the left and see what's back there!! Here's a chart of today (9-30) for a comparison. I know your vwap begins at the open (and I have issues with that too) but other indicators that generate signals need the prior data to calculate the averages they use. When I look at your charts, prior to the opening session line there always appears to be missing bars. These are important especially when 830 news generates a large group of high "volume" bars. One more point the 20ma on my chart is 20 bars EMA "close".
LOL... sounds like an infomercial... that you need a drug called "Reducon" to reduce your confusions...
I think you are dealing with many different approaches to trading the market. Each approach has merit in its own right. But different approaches may have different interpretations given the same set of data, at the same time. Especially when you try to employ different approaches in different time-frames. That makes things worse.
I think you should pick one or two approaches as your "core" methodology. Then you use all others as secondary/supporting 'opinions", for taking side or for timing.
Quote from Matcha:
The "context"
I have been thinking so much about this term these days. I even have a headache now thinking about it. Besides practicing, reading history charts bar by bar, I am not sure how I can build the skill that I can get a right read on the context/picture most of the time.
And the term is still very vague to me. Context=Market Common Sense=Market Evrionment, isn't it? What exactly is the market context. What elements are incuded in the market context. How should I approach them.
Tools/methods I am using to read the context now: Multimple time frame, Momentum, MA, Price Action, VWAP, Price Histogram, Time cycle count, avg move pts count, push/wave counts.
Anyone can easily have 2-4 best setups ever in the world. but without a right read on context in the market, best setups are invalid. then we second guess the setups . We all know that. Like where I am at now. Sometimes, when I see "the best set up", for example a pullback, I will question the entry, should I just enter now or wait for a 2nd chance? what if a 2nd chance didn't happen, price just shooting straight up? Then should I still put my entry in at a much higher price? Is bull still strong?buy order are going to help me?
Sometimes, I enter a best setup while the context is wrong. Once I realized it's wrong I am not sure how to flip to the right context....
I wasn't asking how to become a psychic. I just want to know if there is another approach to build the skill besides practicing. Is there any tools I am missing? How to correctly read the context most of the time so I can be CP? When did you build up your common sense in your trading career? How long does it take you to get the right picture most of time? Please, any SIFU?
sweetie ... you have to understand ... "the context' is all the big daredevils who are in the market and they'll do all kind of crazy stunts to hit their targets ... sometimes the 'context' is just an "illusion" but doesn't really reflect the actual "context"/market common sense/market environment ... sometimes you'll see the px keeps dropping lower & lower amd lower hardly or very little retracement they continue selling hard when the good news came out... just when you're convinced that the market is "berish" then they flip-over ... started buying & buying pushing the px keeps going higher & higher ... so you are caught in between ... bleeding!
To be a trader you have to be an incredible strong person who will not get a heart-attack when the market/context moves without 'logic"... swing both ways wildly!! As a daytrader you must understand the psycology/behavior of the big daredevils ... follow them not against them ... your chances of making $$$$ is high then.
Quote from Bolimomo:
LOL... sounds like an infomercial... that you need a drug called "Reducon" to reduce your confusions...
I think you are dealing with many different approaches to trading the market. Each approach has merit in its own right. But different approaches may have different interpretations given the same set of data, at the same time. Especially when you try to employ different approaches in different time-frames. That makes things worse.
I think you should pick one or two approaches as your "core" methodology. Then you use all others as secondary/supporting 'opinions", for taking side or for timing.
Great advice Boli... Matcha u should pick One or two as your "core" methodology!
and when you're confused don't know what to do? ... just don't trade on that day .. take a break & go out dancing or shopping .. do something fun to make yourself happy. Quote from FreeMarketRider:
Of course - You must post pic's here. Then all the young engineers here can become love sick puppies. And the rest of us will just -
lately so many moody traders ... now for all the engineers aka love-sick puppies to see all my sweetie sisters including Matcha here
hopefully it helps them to trade with happy hearts LOL coz a happy person produces happy result/good result LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4omJYC7eIko
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNptfSg1gCI
~~~ - You know markets are most commonly irrational which is what really vexes serious traders who must overlay rationality on chaos to make a profit. Hence moodiness. Your sweet sisters make rational men (engineers or not) dream. Your wisdom (beyond markets) is really about balance. Good advice for all
No quality price action today. All choppy. The only small trending moment was in doldrums.
I watched the price action tick by tick this morning. I didnât take any action. Took 2 trades in the late session. Both were stopped out. The price action is just too indecisive.
First trade:
11:26am. short 10766, Stop out 10772, short at range high, double top.
11:31am. Flip to long 10773, stop out 10768, long at pivot point. Held through all the D/B retest, breakout. Thought to hold longer for at least a retest Todayâs high. But it came right back hit the stop.
Todayâs PnL: -$60 2 trades
Weekly recap:
PnL: -$437.
#of trades per day:5
Winrate: 26%
Very embarrassed!
Wentfishing, I am showing the chart with part of overnight reaction today.
I watched the price action tick by tick this morning. I didnât take any action. Took 2 trades in the late session. Both were stopped out. The price action is just too indecisive.
First trade:
11:26am. short 10766, Stop out 10772, short at range high, double top.
11:31am. Flip to long 10773, stop out 10768, long at pivot point. Held through all the D/B retest, breakout. Thought to hold longer for at least a retest Todayâs high. But it came right back hit the stop.
Todayâs PnL: -$60 2 trades
Weekly recap:
PnL: -$437.
#of trades per day:5
Winrate: 26%
Very embarrassed!
Wentfishing, I am showing the chart with part of overnight reaction today.