"Marketsurfer is correct: There is no Trends!" --- There are only Turns!

marketsurfer said:
There are multiple threads that marketsurfer started regarding the existence of stock trends.

If you get 9 heads in a row when flipping a coin, are you in a heads trend?

For those of you who are stat inclined--- Any trend that exists can be quantified and its departure from randomness can be measured with the usual statistical procedures, such as confidence intervals and likelihoods. Serial correlation coefficients, regression coefficients of current changes versus past changes, and magnitudes of the impact of past moving averages on the future, distributions of the length of runs, the correllelogram, the expected waiting times between peaks and valleys, survival statistics. All these techniques are very good at discovering any non-random elements.

None of these indicate trending behavior in the stock market. Trends do exist in other markets but not stocks.

surf
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If someone is trading a system they call trend trading profitably, does it matter? I know a guy that was trained by one of the guys in the Market Wizards book. They both define the system as trend trading. The guy I know made a shit ton of money. He ended up running a sizable fund and sold it. Now he owns an investment bank.

I personally know another guy who trend trades. He defines his system as trend trading. He has made all of his money from trading. He lives in a $20m house on the beach.

So you can argue all day if there are trends or not however you define them. Those two guys don't care if you think there are trends or not.
 
Ghost_of_Blotto said:
I'll play a hand. Crude will exceed Fridays' high by a minimum of 50 cents. 70-80 cents above the high is likely, would give more information, and a better price to short.
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Ghost_of_Blotto said:
And as we're currently $1 below Friday's high this would be a long opportunity.
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Fridays' high on the NYMEX WTI March contract was 48.35. We've just traded 80 cents above it at 49.15. $1,800/contract.

The reaction in this area would tell me whether it is worth to establish a short. Perhaps Joe would update us on how he is managing his position. Kudos to anyone who is prepared to post a trade and put themselves out there. And show losses as well as winners.
 
WeToddDid2 said:
If someone is trading a system they call trend trading profitably, does it matter? I know a guy that was trained by one of the guys in the Market Wizards book. They both define the system as trend trading. The guy I know made a shit ton of money. He ended up running a sizable fund and sold it. Now he owns an investment bank.

I personally know another guy who trend trades. He defines his system as trend trading. He has made all of his money from trading. He lives in a $20m house on the beach.

So you can argue all day if there are trends or not however you define them. Those two guys don't care if you think there are trends or not.
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No doubt about it. Good point!! Use what works for you.
 
Numbers are great but when you deal with the market know that you must follow. Trade what you see not what you think the market should do. Just because you are dealing with the market predicting the future with any certainty is in my opinion no more reliable than believing the local fortune teller. In my opinion the most important thing you can do is to get out right. Just the opposite of that common shared activity practiced by two or more humans.That should cover all interacting possibilities.
 
Geez, people. While you are "starin' at the lint in your belly buttons" here
is how I am continuously predicting trend based upon Order Flow Analysis
in Forex. No offense, but we're here to make money, Traders :)

Edit: (I removed comments which might be insulting, concerning
the low quality of some discussions in this great forum.)

Chart shows Forex GBP/JPY price divided by 100. i.e. 176 shown as 1.76
vector analytics done in real time, "leading indicator" not some stupid
moving average of what's already happened "in the rearview mirror"...

HyperScalper

VectorTrendLift.PNG
 
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volpunter said:
5550 post, 10 likes, and starting a BS thread. I would say "ON IGNORE"!
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You do realize that some of us who have been here a while have done most of our posting before there were "likes" on this board. Even a person of the meanest intelligence would recognize this.
 
OddTrader said:
You do realize that some of us who have been here a while have done most of our posting before there were "likes" on this board. Even a person of the meanest intelligence would recognize this.
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And number of likes has little bearing on quality of posts. I should know!

OddTrader one of the nice guys on ET.
 
JTrades said:
And number of likes has little bearing on quality of posts. I should know!

OddTrader one of the nice guys on ET.
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Everyone wants to be "LIKED" :) LOL

Yes, we should all strive for high quality respectful posts and contributions, and these are not necessarily liked... I remind myself this is "Elite Trader" so posts should be for the "elite" and professional traders.

HyperScalper
 
If it's going up. It's trending.
If it's going down. It's trending.
If it's doing neither.It's trending.
From a non elite non professional.
 
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