"Marketsurfer is correct: There is no Trends!" --- There are only Turns!
- Thread starter OddTrader
- Start date
I think many here missed that important life lesson.
What are you talking about ? I have never been a kindergarten, and I do better than most in trends and turn.
lol please don't bother engaging with me. We all know you've never advanced beyond the kindergarten stage. I'm rooting for you to pass pre-k in June.
OK mama
I know only long, short, and no trade. Is that good enough to pass ?
The problem for someone like surf is that he doesn't understand the constraints his PhD acquaintances are working under. Classical statistics has no clue how to measure trends, so they make assumptions like linearity, stationarity, a Brownian component, etc. Being off by just a little can lead to very wrong conclusions. We saw a good example of this recently where the weather models that predicted NYC would be completely blanketed by the blizzard were off by tens of miles and most of the city was spared the worst of the blizzard. Classical stat has assumptions that just don't apply to the markets, which is why most statisticians aren't rich.
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What the math types don't get is that the market is not a mathematical phenomenon, but an economic one. Math is inadequate to represent the market in that it doesn't take into account of the motivation of those who can move markets. These people do it for specific reasons and math cannot constrain them. This is why the market can go beyond statistical extremes and continue in that direction indefinitely until everyone has lost their shirt. In such instances the the market movers are specifically out to defeat the math, and the math loses every time. When real money clashes with math, it's a one way contest. People who focus solely on math are doomed to be poor. It makes no difference how many PhD's they have.
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No you cannot pass.
You always forget 1 small word. For you probably not important but you should first understand that it is nevertheless important. That word is WHEN.
WHEN long
WHEN short
WHEN no trade
And maybe also WHEN take profit. Can be useful too. Because one day you should close your trade.