"Marketsurfer is correct: There is no Trends!" --- There are only Turns!

marketsurfer said:
I tell you the tools to use, you need to do the work. I have already done it, if you don't believe me, run the numbers yourself. surf
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I've done it also and my results tell me that you're nuts. Aside from the fact that any conscious and observant child can see trends in stock charts, you make some self-serving distinction between 'drift' and 'trend'.

Tell us, surf, exactly what do you mean by trend? And how is it so different from drift? Maybe we just have a semantics issue here.
 
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I wonder if there is already back peddling this early on ? As far as I am concerned if it goes up a 1000 points over a reasonable period of time, that constitutes a trend. But it sounds as if this is not good enough. The trend has to be a straight line with no gyrations, has to be 45 degree angle, etc, etc ?

Well, I am not a BS buyer and I will say it when the time comes.
 
This is pretty lame. "Turns" are by definition the end of an existing trend, so there can't be turns if there no trends to begin with.

Trends exist for sure, but you only know that in hindsight. Its impossible to predict when a trend will begin, its also impossible to predict when an existing trend will end. Its all random.
 
i am nobody said:
It is not unfair, it is necessary to make the system work. The "randomers" have to pay for the profit of the "predictables".

But I have another question: some say that 90% of all traders don't make money.
If this is true, is it not the ultimate proof that markets are not random? Normally 50% should lose money. 90% looks not random to me.
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50% would lose money if there were no spreads, slippages, commissions. Frictional costs add up quickly, much like the house edge at the casino, even a 1% edge can destroy a gambler if he gambles long enough.
 
marketsurfer said:
That's an upward drift, different from a trend. If theres a trend, you can quantify it. How many upmoves increase the chances that the next move will be up?
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Folks, even a trader of the meanest intelligence knows that trend is not about whether or not the next bar will be up or down. Get right.
 
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