Markets woes- blame the scarity American consumer

Quote from der_kommissar:

"People need a place to live in". Fine and dandy, but they don't need 3, 4, 5 places to live in. The BIG problem that the R.E. bulls have and will continue to have is that the "supply" of properties continued to grow at historic rates. A constant build out of real estate in markets already flooded with unmarketable properties is not exactly a bull item. If you could have kept the supply constant and/or shrunk the supply (Maybe a few more hurricanes), then maybe this argument would have some weight.

The other problem is that you guys cannot put your finger on how many of these properties are owned by the aspiring "Carlton Sheet's" of the world. If you have one guy with his own private holding company holding title to 27 properties, it doesn't exactly fit the bill of "everybody needs a place to live in".

This whole mountain of fraud, deceit and credit expansion at all costs will kill the 25 year asset bubble.
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Not to forget also as far as supply and demand go, the baby boomer generation spawned home building (those homes are still around of course) those baby boomers DID NOT have as many children as their parents did. As the baby boomers die off and leave another house in supply...in addition to the surplus of homes built after that time...Who will buy them?
 
Quote from gnome:

Spot on! "25 year asset bubble"?... well, it was in 1982 when the Fed went on the money-pump rampage. Hence, 25 years of inflation (which is often referred to as "growth").

Thanks to this greed and foolishness, hyper-inflation, loss of buying power in Americans' money, and likely a SEVERE recession/deflation* are in our future.

*probably the BIG inflation first, then deflation
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yes, gnome, although I'm torn on the "big inflation first". By my reckoning, we are working our way thru the hyper-inflationary "burst" before the long term deflation. But I'm of the opinion that we are closer to the end of the "hyper" part of the inflation than the beginning.

The bitter irony is that these markets are in great need of high oil prices, since the energy complex has such a heavy weighting in the s&p 500. A softening of demand and a crack in this sector is what has fueled the last 100 pts lower in the index.
 
Quote from der_kommissar:

yes, gnome, although I'm torn on the "big inflation first". By my reckoning, we are working our way thru the hyper-inflationary "burst" before the long term deflation. But I'm of the opinion that we are closer to the end of the "hyper" part of the inflation than the beginning.
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Inflation has been higher than the "official declarations"... much, MUCH higher.

But we've not yet embarked on the BIG inflation. So far, all we've had is the Gummint's "trying to get away with it without most people understanding how they're getting screwed" inflation.

The BIG inflation is still waiting in the wings. :mad:
 
To look at the big picture and determine who are the "winners", it looks to me the winners are the lenders who were smart/deceitful/fast enough to pass the debts on and pocket their gain, but the biggest winners were the hedge funds who bet against the housing mess and bet on credit default swaps.
 
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