Markets got it all wrong

[nooby_mcnoob]

It's normal. The ECB did so, too. It makes no sense to signal to markets, and being potentially wrong footed or locking itself into a corner, in rising benchmark rate environments. Signaling works very well, historically, when central banks ease.

so what are the impacts on market then

 

[M.W.]

Of lesser forward guidance? I guess higher volatility as markets need to guess more.

so what are the impacts on market then

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Of lesser forward guidance? I guess higher volatility as markets need to guess more.

 

[murray t turtle]

Lol, how do markets work according to you? Markets are not always rational, does not mean I would catch a falling knife but it means I position and prepare to trade when the market recognizes it got it all wrong. Watch .....................................................................................................................US

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LOL\ SINCE the main US\ SPY is in a bear trend[aka falling knife refers to longs here]
So i see what you both mean. I seldom watch anything europe we have too much taxes + regs to look@ more. Canadian stocks are different matter since there is such a cross trade.

 

[wmwmw]

Lol, how do markets work according to you? Markets are not always rational, does not mean I would catch a falling knife but it means I position and prepare to trade when the market recognizes it got it all wrong. Watch EURUSD overnight, it corrected almost the entire (imo originally wrong) move. The remaining cross currencies corrected the post Fed move between 20 and 50 percent.

So why market goes up today? Did it get it all wrong again?

Market action after FED meeting does not necessarily to be a respond to FED announcement.
Check out FED meeting on 5/4/2022, even Powell said very Hawkish comments， market nevertheless shot up and closed at the high of the day.
For yesterday, even Powell said nothing, market would shot up after Fed announcement .

 

[M.W.]

That is what I believe, I will hold my breath. At this point it is just watching the market and assessing all the variables in play. But I do not see much improvement on the horizon, neither in terms of GDP nor inflation.

If equity markets move higher from here then I probably need to re-assess, but the moment it turns South I will be on the short side in equities and buy USDJPY

So why market goes up today? Did it get it all wrong again?

 

[Arnie]

Even when the markets are wrong, they are right.

 

[M.W.]

I went long USDJPY with a tight stop at 134.35

Holding off on the equity side as I need more volume to build on the downside, which might take a day or two if it happens at all.

 

[Clubber Lang]

Let the market continue to do a summer drift up for a few more weeks.

Then the next leg down starts

 

[wmwmw]

Even when the markets are wrong, they are right.

That is the best post on this thread.
If you follow market, whether it is right or wrong, you make money.
If you fight against market, whether it is right or wrong, you lose money.
So what is the meaning that you want to find whether market is right or wrong? A trader does not need to judge whether market is right, he just needs to follow market.