I went short USDJPY yesterday lol. Well technically long the futures.
Markets got it all wrong
- Thread starter M.W.
- Start date
I went short USDJPY yesterday lol. Well technically long the futures.
Personally I think the markets had been bottoming out anyways (as some here speculated too) and the [expected] interest rate news was just anecdotal. I also believe the high volatility at the moment of rate news release is all fake and just a diversion to where it was going anyways (as usual.)
Then you made some decent coin. The dollar selloff, caused by the interpretation of the Powell speech and BOJ's Amamiya speaking later that day leading to the appreciation in the yen basket caused a larger selloff in the USDJPY, both interpretations by the market I consider incorrect. The next days will show whether this assessment is right or wrong.
I just bought the last wick of support
But yeah, it hit my target at some point before I sat down this morning....
How does this have to be a contradiction? I prefer being profitable after a correct analysis and conclusion. This means that I am sometimes wrong. Over the many years of my work this approach worked a lot better than knowing hardly anything about markets and just blindly following where the market trades at the moment. Anyone who just follows price action understands full well that he/she is often times wrong and gets stopped out. Different individuals follow different approaches. Each approach is often times wrong and some times right. In the end it all comes down to expectancy.
My rational on the long USDJPY trade was that I believe the market got both the dollar and the yen direction wrong by incorrectly interpreting what the Fed and BOJ stated. I put in an incredibly tight stop loss and got stopped out, the few pips mean nothing whatsoever. Had I been right just 1/2 sides then the trade would have most likely still worked moderately well. Had I been right on both sides then the trade would have caused a large gain. A pretty good expectancy in my book.
My rational on the long USDJPY trade was that I believe the market got both the dollar and the yen direction wrong by incorrectly interpreting what the Fed and BOJ stated. I put in an incredibly tight stop loss and got stopped out, the few pips mean nothing whatsoever. Had I been right just 1/2 sides then the trade would have most likely still worked moderately well. Had I been right on both sides then the trade would have caused a large gain. A pretty good expectancy in my book.
The last 2 weeks the Yen has gained 3.6% vs. the USD but the DXY is still largely controlled by the Euro which is doomed. No way ECB or BOJ can seriously raise their rates to combat the USD so long term the Yen is doomed. The USDJPY is right at the 50-day SMA so if goes to below 130 the dollar will roll over even more. I guess that means go long the NQ.
This is just short term trading, but I think someone like Jesse Livermore would just keep shorting the Yen since he was not keen on short term trading.
Of course the forex/bond complex acts as if we already hit peak inflation which isn't likely since this is a supply side inflation and not a demand side one. Buying less of a product won't necessarily reduce the price if the supply chain isn't there to build it.
This is just short term trading, but I think someone like Jesse Livermore would just keep shorting the Yen since he was not keen on short term trading.
Of course the forex/bond complex acts as if we already hit peak inflation which isn't likely since this is a supply side inflation and not a demand side one. Buying less of a product won't necessarily reduce the price if the supply chain isn't there to build it.
,,Future is uncertain",
but as @piezoe helped me to understand, limited creation of product, while we fought covi and had high demand for domestic product & toilet paper, plus, unlimited funds/printing, led to that inflation which we have right now & it wasn't that hard to see, that it will happen, yet they waited that long to raise the rates, instead of doing it 6 - 12 months earlier.
Why, - waiting, delaying the inevitable ?
Makes me to think that, all of it, is, mostly, a big pile of bs, - a show, just another way of manipulating the market, intentionaly.
P.s. dollar equals to euro. ,,It's because of war".
~~Sure~~
Loaded up on Chinese equities, now it's time to load up on European.
<...Takes off foil hat...>
Yet, despite all of it, as long as the Russian orc & Zombies are cooking with the help of Himars, that's good enough for me.
Just thinking out loud. Who knows.
They are hoping the problems fix themselves, they may actually succeed. If so, it will be the biggest game of monetary chicken in history.
Do you honestly think China and Russia watch without seizing the opportunity of a century? Russia-Nato conflict does not resolve itself and China is eyeballing Taiwan and total and complete technology dominance. There can be only one winner and the US historically does not like to play second fiddle.