Markets are impossible to predict

farmerjohn1324 said:
1. NUGT isn't the 3x leveraged version of GLD. It's the leveraged version of NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index.

2. When I entered NUGT, the RSI of GLD was 71.

3. Technical indicators don't move markets. Fundamentals do. What do you think would happen to NUGT if the unemployment rate rose several months in a row?

4. You might as well just talk about buying the indices rather than shorting gold. Same general idea, just more simple.
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farmerjohn1324 said:
1. NUGT isn't the 3x leveraged version of GLD. It's the leveraged version of NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index.
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3. (a)Technical indicators don't move markets. Fundamentals do.What do you think would happen to NUGT if the unemployment rate rose several months in a row?

Neither technical or Fundamentals move markets, its the participants that use them that move markets. Technical trading works, just like, being on the right side of fundamentals works. Technically speaking NUGT looks like a great trade-able stock.:cool:
 
_eug_ said:
You need to study the charts yourself to determine where your premise for a trade is really wrong and what price has to do to invalidate your premise at these levels.
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Sounds like trying to read tea leaves and pretending it's real.

Is that a fish and a scorpion in the sky at night? Lol.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
Sounds like trying to read tea leaves and pretending it's real.

Is that a fish and a scorpion in the sky at night? Lol.
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Like I said before, it is up to you what you want to believe. I am not here to argue about whether technical trading works or not. You said its impossible to predict moves in the market and I posted some examples of how I would use my method to capture possible moves. If you think that I am being fooled by randomness then OK. Good luck with trading based on whatever method you believe works.
 
_eug_ said:
Like I said before, it is up to you what you want to believe. I am not here to argue about whether technical trading works or not. You said its impossible to predict moves in the market and I posted some examples of how I would use my method to capture possible moves. If you think that I am being fooled by randomness then OK. Good luck with trading based on whatever method you believe works.
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I'm waiting for anyone to tell me a combination of indicators to back test that works even 60% of the time.
 
I say forgot indicators. The MACD I used is just to illustrate what slowing momentum looks like which you can easily see in the price bars themselves.

Pull up a chart for a few markets that you like to watch and look at what happens to price. Try to see if there are any hints to the left for where turning points in the now happen. Dont just look at 5 min charts like most day traders do. Use all your timeframes. Monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30min, 5 min. Everything fits together. Things are not always as random as they seem.

Do this for months or more likely years and you will see patterns. Then you need to develop your own trading methodology around what you have observed. This shit is not easy man.

If I knew what is required when I was starting out, I probably would have gone into another business.
 
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14ema cross 50ema and wait for price oscillator to be more than +.5 or less than-.5
no trades if price oscillator whipsawing 0
Screen Shot 2020-01-12 at 11.29.31 PM.png
 
notagain said:
14ema cross 50ema and wait for price oscillator...
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Here's a similar thing. The only difference is that I use a different type of average (it's an inertia study). Then I put two more averages on the detrended subchart.

ThinkScript is underrated. <<<

RISK_ON__RISK_OFF.png
 
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