Markets are impossible to predict

mt2rules said:
It's very easy to say all-in QQQ when we're in a raging bull market and everything is going up. It is much harder when it's down 50% and you're not sure if it's going to drop another 30 like in the early 2000s.

While the average person may lose half their net worth in a recession...... whether you are a trader or an investor.
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%%
Exactly;
but since we knew it has gone down>> more than 80%,past bears, its not a crapshoot @ all. EVery thing going up?? NOT TSLA, LOL, not as of yesterday, or todays open. and I doubt any trader or investors puts 100% in any one ETF.

And draWdowns in QQQ or SPY are not losses, if done right ;
especially with tax cuts, general gov regs cut, FED friendly+ 2000 has no SPXL , for diversification. I thought we were still in the bear when it stalled about 52 weeks ago@50 dma; so it can pay to be late or early in QQQ or SPXL or about anything but TSLA, still going down today@10 cetral time. NOT a prediction, or tock ETF tip LOL
 
Flavio Esteves said:
You can use the fundamental analysis to predict forex movements. While the list is endless and some events can be unpredictable, such as natural disasters, there are a few key drivers to the price of currencies that should always be at the forefront of any fundamental analysis. These are:

Economic growth
Inflation
Interest rates
Employment and wages
Geopolitics

Also, an economic calendar is crucial for anybody trading forex and a guide to the biggest economic and political events that are likely to have an effect, one way or another, on forex and other financial markets.
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How do you predict geopolitics?

What sources should I go to to learn to predict? e.g., how do I predict a Trump win and how do I predict his presidency is tied to the biggest bull market in history? When he got elected, many thought the market would crash.

I want to learn your methodology.
 
murray t turtle said:
%%
Exactly;
but since we knew it has gone down>> more than 80%,past bears, its not a crapshoot @ all. EVery thing going up?? NOT TSLA, LOL, not as of yesterday, or todays open. and I doubt any trader or investors puts 100% in any one ETF.

And draWdowns in QQQ or SPY are not losses, if done right ;
especially with tax cuts, general gov regs cut, FED friendly+ 2000 has no SPXL , for diversification. I thought we were still in the bear when it stalled about 52 weeks ago@50 dma; so it can pay to be late or early in QQQ or SPXL or about anything but TSLA, still going down today@10 cetral time. NOT a prediction, or tock ETF tip LOL
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I only agree with 99.99% of what you said (the 0.001% is on TSLA :finger:).

I think there is still a positive chance TSLA will be a long term winner like AMZN. %%Not a prediction. :D:cool::)
 
mt2rules said:
Leveraged funds do not work like normal stocks or ETFs. They are only meant to track the leveraged return of a fund for the day, not for any period longer than that. Over extended periods of time they drift toward 0, due to a phenomenon known as volatility decay. This happens because a move down decreases an ETF by more than a move up. For example, if an ETF is at $100 and it loses 10% one day and gains 10% the next day, it is not back to $100 but rather at $99.
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%% OK;
but really its much worse that that= if one gets on the wrong side of the main trend x3. So just make sure you find a slightly better than average trend or a good/excellent trend.

And keep good records, junk silver, gold, junkTSLA may not go parabolic all the time LOL.
There are so many ways to rip one off, cash silver of gold may work well, but most advise NO MORE than 10% max of silver , gold.TSLA could easy go to zero/goose egg; or worse than zero if leveraged.........................................................................................................Even with junk silver or gold coins[cash]; they ripped off some investors traders badly on the high priced sealed stuff, by changing the measure/ appraisal, some years ago:caution::caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
So you're batting 50%. And how do you it wasn't by chance that you were right on that one?
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Posted 30 minutes after the Open (would have known sooner, but was behind on my data update for today):

"Main scenario for today is a repeat of yesterday.

I'm thinking new ATHs (got them as I was typing this), but a sell down later in the session.

Should be seeing 3300 today."

Actual high for today was 3299. Then sold off in the afternoon like yesterday - as predicted.

Markets are impossible to predict.

ES Journal - 2019/2020
 
Posted 52 minutes after the Open (I knew this one at the Open, but posting on ET is not a priority during opening hours):

"Another day and another all time high.

And I think we're set to make new highs by the Close. 3315 sounds just about right. Maybe even 3320. Would be surprised to see us both dip and close below 3291.

After two days of fabulous action today will most likely be a slow grinder and snoozer..."

2nd update 12 minutes prior to 12:00:

"I'm sampling some updated statistical data and the output is interesting.

Basically, my data is saying there's a 99 % chance we won't trade below 3299 today. In fact - there's a 90 % chance we'll close above 3305.

The bad news trading wise is that this today will probably not very worthwhile day trading."

The actual High today was 3317,75 and the day was indeed a slow grinder.

Markets are impossible to predict. Or maybe not. :)

ES Journal - 2019/2020
 
Laissez Faire said:
Posted 52 minutes after the Open (I knew this one at the Open, but posting on ET is not a priority during opening hours):

"Another day and another all time high.

And I think we're set to make new highs by the Close. 3315 sounds just about right. Maybe even 3320. Would be surprised to see us both dip and close below 3291.

After two days of fabulous action today will most likely be a slow grinder and snoozer..."

2nd update 12 minutes prior to 12:00:

"I'm sampling some updated statistical data and the output is interesting.

Basically, my data is saying there's a 99 % chance we won't trade below 3299 today. In fact - there's a 90 % chance we'll close above 3305.

The bad news trading wise is that this today will probably not very worthwhile day trading."

The actual High today was 3317,75 and the day was indeed a slow grinder.

Markets are impossible to predict. Or maybe not. :)

ES Journal - 2019/2020
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Post a real trade with a blotter and quit pimping!
 
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