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Good points;
I like to read. Good thing we don't all trade the same way; like a profitable DOW derivatives trader said == ''its correlated to itself'' LOL ................................................................................
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Markets are impossible to predict
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Good points;
I like to read. Good thing we don't all trade the same way; like a profitable DOW derivatives trader said == ''its correlated to itself'' LOL ................................................................................
,
%%
Good points;
I like to read. Good thing we don't all trade the same way; like a profitable DOW derivatives trader said == ''its correlated to itself'' LOL ................................................................................
Here's a starter:
Intermarket Analysis Cheat Sheet
What is Intermarket Analysis
If your interested in books, here are some good titles:
John Murphy: Intermarket analysis
John Murphy: Intermarket Technical Analysis
Ashraf Laïdi: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
Louis B. Mendelsohn: Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis
Markos Katsanos: Intermarket Trading Strategies
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Yes - but the market did trade strongly in my favour.
You seem to fail to grasp that it's a matter of probabilities. At times - these can be so strong that it's close to a certainty.
For example on Monday, although the market overshot my prediction by 3,50 points:
ES Journal - 2019/2020
I did. I don't trade blindly on my predictions. At least not yet. I continuosuly update my data and use secondary signals as well.
As to the original post, Farmer entered the NUGT trade far to late, when the RSI for GLD was in the low 80's and peaked at 85. That's why there was so much profit taking in the miners, Mr. Market is anticipating a pullback in the metal. Should have been actually buying DUST, the inverse of NUGT. I actually like trading both and have done nicely in both over the past 18 months. Like all leveraged ETF's, there is a reason why they're not recommended for the average investor.
1. NUGT isn't the 3x leveraged version of GLD. It's the leveraged version of NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index.
2. When I entered NUGT, the RSI of GLD was 71.
3. Technical indicators don't move markets. Fundamentals do. What do you think would happen to NUGT if the unemployment rate rose several months in a row?
4. You might as well just talk about buying the indices rather than shorting gold. Same general idea, just more simple.
Lol, great thread farmerjohn. Perfect trainwreck. 
But were you series when you gave the stat of the unleverged index being up like 26% and its 3x fund equivalent being up 90% in same period?
If so, anyone know how this could be? I always was under the impression that due to volatility decay there should be less thana 3x return. But 90 is a good bit ABOVE 3 times 26...
But were you series when you gave the stat of the unleverged index being up like 26% and its 3x fund equivalent being up 90% in same period?
If so, anyone know how this could be? I always was under the impression that due to volatility decay there should be less thana 3x return. But 90 is a good bit ABOVE 3 times 26...
Do you have a certain percentage where you call something a loser?
%%Lol, great thread farmerjohn. Perfect trainwreck.
But were you series when you gave the stat of the unleverged index being up like 26% and its 3x fund equivalent being up 90% in same period?
If so, anyone know how this could be? I always was under the impression that due to volatility decay there should be less thana 3x return. But 90 is a good bit ABOVE 3 times 26...
That depends on the way it trends.For example UPRO can easy be down -10%[ lost 10% on SPY losing 1%] for52 weeks, on SPY being down -1% for 52 weeks. And that is a lot bigger % slippage than your example. Farmer john's ETF X3 did 100% on 52 weeks not long ago, as I noted earlier
And if I had guessed right, I'd be on here looking like a genius even if it was luck.
If I would have bought the 3x S&P (SPXL), I'd be up 35.5% since 9/4/19.