Markets are impossible to predict

Turveyd said:
Never look for tops or bottoms, every pause will look like a top, most will continue, look for a direction, join at a sensible price and ride it.

Trading really can be as simple as that.
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Well taking the average slope over a specified timeframe is elementary math. The problem to me is knowing what timeframe is useful.

And also knowing that it truly is fundamentals that move markets in the longer-term. You can quantify fundamentals necessarily.
 
The faster you forget the word Fundamental the faster you will start to make money.

A couple years ago I was in Bangkok and I met a women who had some charts up on her laptop, naturally I started to talk to her. She agreed to have lunch and we discussed the markets. I was a real rookie at the time and was really curious about her. She was a PH'D in math who used to have a career in an investment bank in London. She quit in her 30s and went to trade her own account. She told me she tried to use the FA type trading that they were doing at work and she could not do it independently. She told now she ONLY focuses on price and that's it...

True story.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
What would a sign of medium or long-term top look like to you?
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I'm not quite sure, to be honest. I don't trade long term and have only recently started making weekly predictions. It's more of a hobby to me at this point since I have my hands full with intraday trading and other stuff. But I have some ongoing studies which I think should yield some interesting results when I'm done. The keyword being 'studies'.

If you want to understand a market - study it. It takes time. It's that simple. And that hard. Of course, it helps to be creative and ask smart questions.

As for a long term top, I suppose I would like to see key technical levels being violated and strong selling on higher volume with the daily range larger than recent averages.

I think this was the day in October 2018 which convinced me we most likely had a long term or medium term top in. Of course, I didn't get the exact top - but how many have gotten burned trying to pick a top in this market?

The end of September/early October 2019 looked pretty dim, but for some reason I can't quite articulate now it did not strike me as anything other than a deep pullback. Probably because the market was more ranging at that point and I was bullish for year end.


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dozu888 said:
dude listen to me - just buy qqq blind and hold forever.

this trading game is not for you... no offense... 99% people can't make it.
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In that case, I'd be better off doing nothing. Because I can make better return doing something unrelated.

What are your results? If you don't mind me asking.
 
_eug_ said:
The faster you forget the word Fundamental the faster you will start to make money.

A couple years ago I was in Bangkok and I met a women who had some charts up on her laptop, naturally I started to talk to her. She agreed to have lunch and we discussed the markets. I was a real rookie at the time and was really curious about her. She was a PH'D in math who used to have a career in an investment bank in London. She quit in her 30s and went to trade her own account. She told me she tried to use the FA type trading that they were doing at work and she could not do it independently. She told now she ONLY focuses on price and that's it...

True story.
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In that case, you wouldn't even have to know what you're trading. Is that right?

Just look at the price and technicals. The label at the top doesn't matter.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
In that case, I'd be better off doing nothing. Because I can make better return doing something unrelated.

What are your results? If you don't mind me asking.
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that's the way to go... trading is complete waste of time.. I can guarantee you virtually nobody beats the qqq long term... why bother.

my results are very good but it's irrelevant to you... everyone's situation is different... good luck.
 
dozu888 said:
that's the way to go... trading is complete waste of time.. I can guarantee you virtually nobody beats the qqq long term... why bother.

my results are very good but it's irrelevant to you... everyone's situation is different... good luck.
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Why is it irrelevant to you?

And how many hours per day are you watching charts?
 
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