Markets are impossible to predict

[_eug_]

so, to give some hint to the folks who have been the Dumb Dave.

in this instance, ask yourself these questions:

- what kind of buying pressure has been displayed on the charts in the last couple of months?
- has Dumb Dave been long/flat/short thru these months? how do you find out?
- what stories has Sam pushed in 2018? fake recession? Warren holding lots of cash? remember these?
- how about in this latest round? expert said buy gold? could the expert be Sam's mouth piece?
- what did the price actually do in relation to what the mouth piece said? or in relation to the other stories pushed in 2018?
- if you reach some kind of conclusion of Sam's plan, are there more evidence available? how about the stories going back a couple of more years?

if your head is hurting you should quit... this business requires some minimal intelligence level, like 120 IQ...

not everyone can succeed, someone has to flip them burgers..

The way you analyse was perfect for shorting oil over this fake WW3 news.

Oil runs up from October to January in almost a straight line... We near 2019 highs and all the sudden there is news about WW3 breaking out and everyone on twitter and stock twits is talking about 90$ oil.... I start getting messaged from friends who dont even trade that I should be buying oil because its going to the moon. These are the same friends that bought BTC in 2017 December.

 

[gaussian]

The way you analyse was perfect for shorting oil over this fake WW3 news.

Oil runs up from October to January in almost a straight line... We near 2019 highs and all the sudden there is news about WW3 breaking out and everyone on twitter and stock twits is talking about 90$ oil.... I start getting messaged from friends who dont even trade that I should be buying oil because its going to the moon. These are the same friends that bought BTC in 2017 December.

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Was a fantastic short trade that would've blown up in your face and probably cost you your house if Trump didn't save his beautiful market. I doubt a stop would've even been useful with how fast oil would rise if he didn't come out and say "lol we are gonna make a deal with Iran". A short trade in the oil market was -EV and absolute lunacy. Nice gamble on a horse race for sure. Smart trade? Absolutely not. It's easy to look back and your deathwish of a short and say "oh yeah clearly XYZ in my tea leaf chart says I was right!"

To be honest, if China is any indicator Trump "making a deal" with Iran will certainly sour 3-4 times before he actually figures out he has no ability to make a deal despite writing a book on it.

Expect the same drop-for-a-bit-rally-for-a-bit behavior while this all shakes out. It's not reacting on "WW3 panic", the big sell off today is strictly due to Trump no different than the ebb and flow of his "ok guys this time I'm serious about a deal with China" BS. Way over done. We'll be back to December levels in a week or so.

Short Trump - oil will be good in 2020. Peace is priced in - we'll see if mango man can keep it. There's still supply cuts from OPEC and shale to consider. It's always funny watching the shorts go nuts when shorting oil is basically always -EV.

 

[ET180]

They could if you charge a fee to look at it. Or if you rent it to a museum.

How many people bought a ticket to the Louvre today because they wanted to see the Mona Lisa?

But I think we're beyond off-topic at this point.

Many gold stocks also pay a dividend. Owning something like GDX will give one leveraged exposure to gold while also providing a "yield". It's also possible to generate a yield by selling calls against a long position, but that's more tricky and it can backfire.

 

[schizo]

As there are two sides to a coin, there are two sides to predicting price: anticipation and reaction.

BTW you're not trying to predict the future. On the contrary, you're trying to determine the best possible outcome based on previous price patterns.

 

[_eug_]

Was a fantastic short trade that would've blown up in your face and probably cost you your house if Trump didn't save his beautiful market. I doubt a stop would've even been useful with how fast oil would rise if he didn't come out and say "lol we are gonna make a deal with Iran". A short trade in the oil market was -EV and absolute lunacy. Nice gamble on a horse race for sure. Smart trade? Absolutely not. It's easy to look back and your deathwish of a short and say "oh yeah clearly XYZ in my tea leaf chart says I was right!"

To be honest, if China is any indicator Trump "making a deal" with Iran will certainly sour 3-4 times before he actually figures out he has no ability to make a deal despite writing a book on it.

Expect the same drop-for-a-bit-rally-for-a-bit behavior while this all shakes out. It's not reacting on "WW3 panic", the big sell off today is strictly due to Trump no different than the ebb and flow of his "ok guys this time I'm serious about a deal with China" BS. Way over done. We'll be back to December levels in a week or so.

Short Trump - oil will be good in 2020. Peace is priced in - we'll see if mango man can keep it. There's still supply cuts from OPEC and shale to consider. It's always funny watching the shorts go nuts when shorting oil is basically always -EV.

Im not trading the news stories or trump. I am trading what I see on the chart which is basically how other players are responding to the stories. Just trying to read behavior and use logic to decide which side to bet on.

I've been closely watching CL for almost 3 years. I know how it plays out, not always but most of the time.

 

[traider]

Im not trading the news stories or trump. I am trading what I see on the chart which is basically how other players are responding to the stories. Just trying to read behavior and use logic to decide which side to bet on.

I've been closely watching CL for almost 3 years. I know how it plays out, not always but most of the time.

Who are the major players in oil? Are you able to see them on the tape?
How do you react fast enough to major news? Is there a good news feed for oil

 

[_eug_]

Who are the major players in oil? Are you able to see them on the tape?
How do you react fast enough to major news? Is there a good news feed for oil

As I said I trade charts basically 100%. I dont look for stupid patterns or indicators or anything like that. I'm more about picking out important price levels that have historical significance and seeing what happens in the now when we get there. Does the chart show slowing momentum as we approach support on a sell off? If momentum is slowing then you know that others are buying into the same level that you are thinking about. Probably a good idea to trade it. Context is important, as in if a move gets setup on a larger timeframe it will probably not get a huge reaction on a lower time frame level. Need to use judgement and experience and to use your timeframes together to decipher what is going on.

The news / twitter stuff is just a phenomenon that I noticed. At the big turning points on daily chart, the crowd tends to be wrong on social media. I would never trade based on this alone. Charts rule all.

The example in oil is clear, I had an idea that first test of those 2019 highs will probably fail and provide a reaction. Then the news started and you can clearly see on the 30min chart the selling into the spikes, the chart doesnt lie. I figured the players selling up there are the informed traders since most retail was bullish so doubt they were shorting into possible war news.. But clearly someone was.

 

[Laissez Faire]

What you're really saying is that it's impossible for you to predict the markets. Of course, some markets are probably easier to predict than others.

The problem for most people who fail to predict is that they don't have the sufficient data or experience to actually make a valid prediction. And even if you did - monetizing that prediction is another consideration which adds more challenges.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Guessing where the market is going based on a hunch or how a chart you just pulled up looks like or what Trump just said sure as hell got nothing to do with prediction. That's just careless gambling and guesswork.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

What you're really saying is that it's impossible for you to predict the markets. Of course, some markets are probably easier to predict than others.

The problem for most people who fail to predict is that they don't have the sufficient data or experience to actually make a valid prediction. And even if you did - monetizing that prediction is another consideration which adds more challenges.

The news and data are so random. Nobody has a crystal ball.

Aside from predicting that stocks will go up long-term.