I agree. But of those three, Trump has the largest effect.
But you can't predict what he'll say tomorrow. And not to mention that a tweet has nothing to do with actual economic fundamentals. But can't deny the fact that they've been moving markets.
Markets are impossible to predict
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
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I agree. But of those three, Trump has the largest effect.
But you can't predict what he'll say tomorrow. And not to mention that a tweet has nothing to do with actual economic fundamentals. But can't deny the fact that they've been moving markets.
I actually do have a crystall ball. It's built on data. Sure, there may be times where the outcome seems random, but quite often it gives me a good idea of where price most likely is going. And that sure as hell ain't random.
Of course - if you're new to the markets or haven't focused on the right stuff - it may appear random.
I trade 100% technically. News are disregarded.
Out of all the 1000s of price moves happening any single week - I can assure you that Trump ain't responsible for even 10 % of them.
And to protect yourself against adverse price moves, distortions and news spikes - you use a stop loss.
Just give up you won't make it
Should I focus on my REAL BUSINESS that doesn't involve staring at a computer screen instead?
You probably wouldn't understand.
Stop Losses, Get Blown Through badly trading with a 200SL I guess 50slippage not so bad, but trading with a 10SL then 50 slippage is a killer.
Avoid News, so unschedules Trumpy news is a pain, just dodged it yesterday entirely luck for once.
Is the data you use more like...
Fundamental data = gdp reports, unemployment numbers, company earnings, corporate debt levels.
Or....
Technical analysis = moving averages, RSI, etc.
?
How can you avoid it when it's been the major market mover for a long time now.
No. But if I were building a trading model based fundamental analysis - I probably would.
I do however think this kind of data in isolation is flawed for making accurate predictions. Case in point being the markets right now or for the last years for that matter.
People who are far smarter than me argues that the markets are overvalued and have been for a long time now. I can even see and agree with that.
Regardless, that does not matter in this bull market which is driven by the central banks, low rates and a continued demand for stocks. Technically, this is a strong bull market which have not yet shown any signs of a medium or long-term top.
It's definitely technical analysis as I use past prices and past scenarios to predict the future, but I do not use moving averages, nor do I use RSI or any other common indicators.
Maybe it's more accurate to call it statistical analysis.
A funny thing is that I may even have an opinion of where I think the market is going - but then I run my data and find that the data suggests the opposite of what I thought.
There's a lot of what-if and conditional probabilities involved, although there are times where the probabilities are around 90% for a particular outcome.
This may give you an idea:
https://www.linnsoft.com/homework
PS: I don't use this software, but it seems really good.
What would a sign of medium or long-term top look like to you?
Never look for tops or bottoms, every pause will look like a top, most will continue, look for a direction, join at a sensible price and ride it.
Trading really can be as simple as that.