Markets and randomness

Originally posted by daniel_m


or spontaneous-organic-discord - depending on what mood she's in..
More...

Her moves are in complete and utter harmony being that she serves as nothing more than a mirror reflection of our collective actions and non-actions.

The discord is only a matter of a traders subjective perception...

BTW; I am going to kick your ass next weekend, Publias has a big trade in the wings :)
 
Originally posted by yabz
Conclusion: we cannot reject the hypothesis that the movements of the shares and indexes in these tests are random.
More...
correct, but this only applies to your very narrow definition of "movement".

in effect, the only thing your test demonstrates is that "if you only know today's price of a security, then there's no way to predict tomorrow's price with better than random probability". this does not mean, however, that there's no way to predict tomorrow's price given addional information (such as the prevailing trend, resistance/support areas, or breaking news).

or put it another way: i can come up with dozens of numeric sequences that appear as random to you-name-it tests, however, which one can predict with 100% accuracy, given additional information not "seen" by the tests.

an algorithmic random number generator would be one such example: the output appears random, but is really 100% deterministic sequence, given the algorithm and the seed.

- jaan
 
Originally posted by 2Good2Care
Here we go again. I smell a hundred pages of junk from the usual ET peanut gallery.

NONE of you, I REPEAT none of you have the academic qualifications nor the expertise to speak to chaos theory (least of all you aphie) or apply randomness to the market in the rigorous mathematical sense that this topic requires so why don't ya all just...


SHUT YER YAPS!:mad:


All you do is muck things up by your UNQUALIFIED OPINIONS.

Make a stand for truth ...JUST SHUT UP!
More...

HILARIOUS...
 

Attachments

Originally posted by aphexcoil



On a tick by tick basis, we can pretty much say the market is random
More...
Aphi,

I've found that a lot times, tick by tick (stock) has best predictability. while Certain times it seems unpredictable to me. This is why I scalp.
 
Originally posted by 2Good2Care
Here we go again. I smell a hundred pages of junk from the usual ET peanut gallery.

NONE of you, I REPEAT none of you have the academic qualifications nor the expertise to speak to chaos theory (least of all you aphie) or apply randomness to the market in the rigorous mathematical sense that this topic requires so why don't ya all just...


SHUT YER YAPS!:mad:


All you do is muck things up by your UNQUALIFIED OPINIONS.

Make a stand for truth ...JUST SHUT UP!
More...
Brother Pussy,

One more alias?

geeez.

nitro
 
Originally posted by darkhorse
And of course, the existence of successful mechanical systems- of which there are many, and which can be easily verified- naturally begs the question: why is anyone still questioning whether the market can be beat in the first place???
More...
Where does one find all these "successful mechanical systems - of which there are many"?
 
Originally posted by Long-Way-To-Go

Where does one find all these "successful mechanical systems - of which there are many"?
More...

LOL

nitro :D
 
Originally posted by metooxx
Cracker Jack boxes ...
More...
Thanks for the hot tip! That's the one place I haven't looked. Are they in every box or is it one of those "many will try - 5 will win" giveaways? Do I need to collect all 10,000 - with one in each individually sealed box? Oh well, I guess I'll spend a fortune on Cracker Jack boxes to add to my bookcase. Thanks again. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top