Market timing is unnecessary

TM_Direct · Oct 30, 2003

Based on your model MM, you really should be buying options not stock....less capital, less downside risk, better volatility to get quicker returns

mrmarket · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from gms:

I wouldn't say it does. If your model was adapt at coming in just when the price was moving up, and at it's fastest pace to boot, you wouldn't be waiting so long to see 15% moves, and you wouldn't have the losses at all. Maybe you meant to write, "that's what my quantitative model tries to uncover." And it does matter if you're early or late regarding where in the move you come in. If you're late, the upside potential is potentially more exhausted than if you're in early.

Overall, the model has been extremely successful. I am very happy. Do you think I've been just lucky?

mrmarket · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from TM_Direct:

Based on your model MM, you really should be buying options not stock....less capital, less downside risk, better volatility to get quicker returns

I do buy options on some of my picks, when they are optionable. However I do not post these on my website.

TM_Direct · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

Overall, the model has been extremely successful. I am very happy. Do you think I've been just lucky?

Yes, to some extent.....but your selection method is good but i believe your TIMING is poor....what do you see in these stocks now that you didn't see during the run up of 40-50-60%??
Maybe you should jump in quicker and increase your return when they run up 25%

TM_Direct · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

I do buy options on some of my picks, when they are optionable. However I do not post these on my website.

Did you make some extra coin???? wheres the love for your ol buddy TM??? you owe me on this one LOL....how about some tickets for springsteen????

SlickRick · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.

I'm really shocked that you have not been scooped up by Goldman Sachs, Brown Bros., Quantum, or Bershire Hathaway yet. I mean you're a true genius. You're right, no more timing.

Let's see....whcih stocks will outperform the market? Thats the question. You make it so easy!!!

dbphoenix · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from TM_Direct:

Yes, to some extent.....but your selection method is good but i believe your TIMING is poor....what do you see in these stocks now that you didn't see during the run up of 40-50-60%??
Maybe you should jump in quicker and increase your return when they run up 25%

That's the hindsight wish of everyone who's ever investigated CANSLIM. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way since the best-performing stocks generally begin moving before (often LONG before) the earnings arrive to justify the move. This has certainly been the case with the run since March. By the time the earnings come in, the price is already well up. Therefore, you have to do more than just look up EPS and RS scores in IBD in order to assess the probabilities of a further move.

onewaypockets · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

Actually, it's 45 for 50...but who's counting....

Since I only hold for 15% gain, it doesn't really matter if I'm in a stock early or in a stock late, the key is to get in when the stock is moving up its fastest. That's what my quantitative model uncovers.

Do you like my new website? Much better than Yahoo, in my opinion.

One just has to wonder why "mrmarket" takes the time to post here. A 90% win/loss record makes him the best trader I have ever heard of. My long term win/loss record of 56% looks pretty sad. Certainly he cannot learn anything more from any of us here.

With his exceptional trading ability, the vision to identify differences between "cowardly sell offs" and regular weakness, and the "formal training in balance sheet and income statement analysis" I believe "mrmarket" could corner the market in just a few hundred trades even with modest starting capitol.

dbphoenix · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from onewaypockets:

One just has to wonder why "mrmarket" takes the time to post here.

Same reason Jack does, I suppose.

TM_Direct · Oct 30, 2003

Quote from dbphoenix:

Same reason Jack does, I suppose.

I miss the good ol days when Jack and Mr market argued for supremacy

...and then jack started a thread and posted a 10,000 word investigative essay into why Mr. markets system doesn't;t work but his does LMAO!!!!..thats good stuff