Just out of curiosity, do the UVA, POC, and the one S/R line all being so close together suggest a bottoming? (especially since we blew through them today)
Market Profile Plus by bolter
- Thread starter bolter
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Master,
The fact that all 3 were so close together means it is a critical level - we saw that it bounced off the first time. I call this a battleline - bullish above bearish below.
Now if you're asking about bottoming, I think the fact we closed above 1270 was a very bullish development for the market. We have a trendline to negotiate at 1280 - which we bounced off yesterday. If we clear that level then we will looking at the recent highs.
All the best.
The fact that all 3 were so close together means it is a critical level - we saw that it bounced off the first time. I call this a battleline - bullish above bearish below.
Now if you're asking about bottoming, I think the fact we closed above 1270 was a very bullish development for the market. We have a trendline to negotiate at 1280 - which we bounced off yesterday. If we clear that level then we will looking at the recent highs.
All the best.
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http://kb.esignalcentral.com/display/2n/index.asp?c=&cpc=&cid=&cat=&catURL=&r=0.564892
Runningbear
http://kb.esignalcentral.com/display/2n/index.asp?c=&cpc=&cid=&cat=&catURL=&r=0.564892
Runningbear
Good morning bolter,
Given the open on the ES, below the POC combined with the "battleline", would you not have had a negative bias to start the day? Would you not have been looking to short at the POC/battleline and cover at LVA? If not, what would have tipped you off to a positive day?
Would I be correct in assuming your bias would have changed once the battleline was taken out?
Combined with a low TICK reading convinced me! I was happy to capture a big chunk of the move on the ES but was conflicted with the negative bias I was holding based on the open. (Until it broke 1269... then it was smooth sailing to 1277 and the extreme high TICK reading)
PaperTrader
Papertrader,
Since I was not trading this is purely notional .... You're right I would have had a negative bias at the open and shorted around the POC, and probably reversed at the LVA. Hard to say whether I would have been stopped out, filled etc. All other things aside a successful retest of the LVA would generally cause me to shift bias. This is a strong signal from the market that value does not want to go any lower, and by implication probably wants to go higher. Rallying back through the VA on good volume is confirmation, and breaking through the battleline should be no surprise. I don't like to chase trades, but this is one of those setups that it is worthwhile to do so. High probability and good risk:reward. Plus I've been looking for this sort of trend day for last week, and yesterday looked like a great setup. Hindsight is a wonderful thing though!
PaperTrader,
Actually one point about how I set my initial bias .....
When the market is range bound (on a daily chart), like we are at the moment, I use the open relative to the POC to set my initial bias. However, in a strongly trending market I will usually use the LVA (uptrend) or UVA (downtrend) instead on the POC. The rationale here should be self evident.
bolter
Actually one point about how I set my initial bias .....
When the market is range bound (on a daily chart), like we are at the moment, I use the open relative to the POC to set my initial bias. However, in a strongly trending market I will usually use the LVA (uptrend) or UVA (downtrend) instead on the POC. The rationale here should be self evident.
bolter
Levels for today:
ES 1280.75 1278.50 1273.75
YM 11058 11045 11018
ER2 724.0 720.4 719.4
Note that for all 3 markets I have revised the LVA upwards to incorporate the latest VA that was established yesterday afternoon.
Both the ES and YM are looking to open right around the POC so hard to form an initial bias at this stage. On the ES we are right at the vaccuum (1277) which we did some work on yesterday, but need to do more work on at some point - perhaps today. This may mean we continue to bracket around this VA out of the gate. It's a bit of a confused picture today. We have a long term trendline at 1280 which halted the market yesterday. A decisive break of this level augurs well for the upside. We also have strong S/R at 1273.75 right at the LVA - this would suggest we will not see value going lower today. A pull back to this level today would be a good point to get long. Overhead we had S/R at 1283.50 and another vaccuum at 1288.50. So I'll be neutral at the open and then take it from there.
Not sure if I'll have time to prepare a plan for the YM today. I'm a bit behind schedule.
ES 1280.75 1278.50 1273.75
YM 11058 11045 11018
ER2 724.0 720.4 719.4
Note that for all 3 markets I have revised the LVA upwards to incorporate the latest VA that was established yesterday afternoon.
Both the ES and YM are looking to open right around the POC so hard to form an initial bias at this stage. On the ES we are right at the vaccuum (1277) which we did some work on yesterday, but need to do more work on at some point - perhaps today. This may mean we continue to bracket around this VA out of the gate. It's a bit of a confused picture today. We have a long term trendline at 1280 which halted the market yesterday. A decisive break of this level augurs well for the upside. We also have strong S/R at 1273.75 right at the LVA - this would suggest we will not see value going lower today. A pull back to this level today would be a good point to get long. Overhead we had S/R at 1283.50 and another vaccuum at 1288.50. So I'll be neutral at the open and then take it from there.
Not sure if I'll have time to prepare a plan for the YM today. I'm a bit behind schedule.
bolter,
Question concerning time-of-day for trades. Let's say you place your orders at the open and the market stays in a tight range and doesn't hit your entry points. What would be your cutoff point for pulling your orders?
Thanks.
PT
Question concerning time-of-day for trades. Let's say you place your orders at the open and the market stays in a tight range and doesn't hit your entry points. What would be your cutoff point for pulling your orders?
Thanks.
PT
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