Market Profile Plus by bolter

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Quote from bolter:

I'm going to stick with the ES for the opening play today because I believe the test of 1264 was so important yesterday that we have have a clear battleline, and we are looking to be open just a chip shot away @ 1266.[..]
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One of the best threads on ET that I have come across. Congrats!

I'm curious... why do you feel that the 1264 presented a battleline? I am aware that it was the low on Monday and it was poked slightly on Friday. Is there another reason why you didn't think that it might be penetrated slightly more before a bounce?
 
Quote from FuturesTrader71:

One of the best threads on ET that I have come across. Congrats!

I'm curious... why do you feel that the 1264 presented a battleline? I am aware that it was the low on Monday and it was poked slightly on Friday. Is there another reason why you didn't think that it might be penetrated slightly more before a bounce?
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This is indeed one of the best threads.

The observation of 1264 as a battleline is indeed very insightful. I looked back and saw that it was one tick below the low of Jan 20th, the sell off day when C and GE announced "disappointing" earnings.
 
FuturesTrader71,
Also thanks for your kind words.
why do you feel that the 1264 presented a battleline? ..... Is there another reason why you didn't think that it might be penetrated slightly more before a bounce?
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Several reasons:
1. It is the lower precipice of the 1265-75 longer term value range. If this gets violated it means the market will epaxnd it's range (lower) in search of the next level they may represent fair value.
2. Because it had acted as last ditch support for the last 3 days there will be stops below this level. And I believe we did see some stops firing off today.
3. When it hit 1264 on Fri it sparked a 9 point rally. Then a 5 point rally on Mon, and finally a 4 point rally this monring. Clearly, buyers were stepping in at this price but with less conviction on each successive test. Often a 4th test will fail.
 
Hey Bolter,

Very well articulated thread, i just started to study MP and your explanations help solidify what i have been learning.

Thanks,

Lotus 7
 
Lotus,
Very well articulated thread, i just started to study MP and your explanations help solidify what i have been learning.
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Thanks Lotus. I have deliberately avoided delving too much into MP theory. There is alot of excellent material freely available so I am relying on MP newbies to go off and do their own homework - as you are doing. Good luck with it.
 
Opra,
...when you trade YM, do you cross reference ES's MP or base the trade solely on YM's?
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I view each market completely independently - despite the fact that they aren't. I want to be completely objective about each and every trade, and I just trade what I see in front me at that moment. From a risk management perspective I will rarely put the same trade on in multiple markets. Because of this I'll often than find in one market I'm long from the pullback and in the other I'm waiting to short the current rally. I don't want to hedge away my exposure obviously, but I'm playing 2 markets from either side if you see what I mean.
Do you trade regular session only or also enter trades pre-open based on MP scenario?
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For the purpose of this journal I will just be covering RTH. But there is no reason why experienced traders shouldn't be trading on Globex in the pre-market to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.

Good luck with your trading "apprenticeship". Take it slow, be patient and focus on learning. The profits will follow.
 
Top of the morning punters.

Here's how the day is setting up so far. Globex is calling for a slightly posetive open. Yesterdays action on the ES was decidely bearish, we pushed lower, down to levels we haven't seen for a while, the VA's settled at the very bottom of the days' range and we closed at the lows. This is usually a good continuation setup. However, something is really bothering me about yesteradys action. We broke a faily key technical level on the ES but where were the sellers? The bears showed no resolve whatsoever. I smell a rat! I'll study my charts and be back later with a plan.
 
Oh now I get it. Excuse me for sleeping at the wheel here. Helps if you look at a daily chart knucklehead - dohhhhh!

1250 on the ES is bulletproof - it dates back to Jul 05. Plus the NQs are at support (1650) which dates back even further (Dec 04). Clearly this all sets-up for a big bounce today ( a trend day in MP parlance), and more than likely lead by the NQ's. A last minute run-up on Globex will add weight to this scenario. Could ge a good day to trade ER2 if you are so inclined.

ES UVA=1264.75 POC=1257.75 LVA=1257.00

YM UVA=10807 POC=10770 LVA 10755

The ES looks like my preferred market at this stage. Bear in mind that if they do buy this market today it could run 15-20 points. So watch the tape and be patient today, give your winners some room. Globex is printing 1260.75 at the moment, a few points above the POC, so we will have a postive bias - ie: buy pullbacks. Any pullback to the POC and/or the LVA would be good entry points, but we may need to be lucky. At this stage I'm going to send orders to buy at these levels with a stop below yesterdays LOD, although I may pull them, depends how I see the open. The UVA would be the initial target but on real strength I'll work it higher. Keep an eye on a multi-day MP for other good pullback areas to buy. A pullback to the IB on a trend day is a good entry if you can get it. The UVA obviously. In terms of what's overhead, 1268.25 looks fairly solid. Then we have 1273.75 and (you never know) 1283.50. We have a vaccuum at 1277.00 that may want to get filled.

Hey good luck today guys.
 
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