Market has topped on 2019/11/07. Get the hell out now.

Ayn Rand said:
Also factor in the talk of neg interests rates and stocks still look very cheap. Especially stocks that have an up side and pay dividends.
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Current S&P500 P/E is 24.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

Historical median is around 15. We have also had 3 consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.

https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-8-2019

All while the S&P sits at all time highs in a technically very overbought condition. So no, I'd say a lot of optimism is already priced in.
 
bone said:
The market won't come off in any sort of sustained, meaningful way until corporate earnings disappoint over multiple sectors. Just look at what happened in December of 2018 - selling on trade dispute rumors and Fed rate cut speculation couldn't persist. Earnings and expected earnings drive share prices.
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And as I pointed out above, so far this year, we have seen 3 consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth for the S&P while it's at P/E of 24, very high based on history. While I agree with you that earnings (although heavily boosted by buybacks) should move the market, it was the Fed that moved the market despite the earnings trend. They completely capitulated from a series of rate hikes with possible overshoot to a series of rate cuts, end of QT and resumption of balance sheet expansion due to repo issues. Take away that support and market crashes. There is no way it could handle 4.5% Fed funds at current valuations. 10+ year into the expansion, we are still no where near the Fed Funds rate before the crash.
 
Draghi left the Fed no alternative.

ET180 said:
And as I pointed out above, so far this year, we have seen 3 consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth for the S&P while it's at P/E of 24, very high based on history. While I agree with you that earnings (although heavily boosted by buybacks) should move the market, it was the Fed that moved the market despite the earnings trend. They completely capitulated from a series of rate hikes with possible overshoot to a series of rate cuts, end of QT and resumption of balance sheet expansion due to repo issues. Take away that support and market crashes. There is no way it could handle 4.5% Fed funds at current valuations. 10+ year into the expansion, we are still no where near the Fed Funds rate before the crash.
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ET180 said:
Current S&P500 P/E is 24.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

Historical median is around 15. We have also had 3 consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.

https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-8-2019

All while the S&P sits at all time highs in a technically very overbought condition. So no, I'd say a lot of optimism is already priced in.
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Forward pe 18.65. Yielding 5.36%. That’s dirt cheap compared to the 10 year 1.8 or LQD 3.3%

Nobody is talking about this in the mass media. But just watch. When sp500 yields get down to 3.5%. Which means 5000. That’s when my pro boys will push this story.
 
Clubber Lang said:
In 2007-2008 how many people were saying “Nothing like the safety of blue chip stocks with solid dividends, like GM AIG GE FNMA etc etc”
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Sure, but then AAPL is up 1300% and MSFT up 500% etc etc. - from the pre-crisis highs, not the lows.

And there's no reason to have been long at the highs, since the impending crisis really was obvious by June 2007. Not necessary the stuff involving CDS etc but certainly the main story. Today there's no such story, but everyone remains so scarred by 2008 that "repo turmoil", or "yield curve inversion" are enough to send the herd instantly running for cover.
 
I just joined this thread. Looking at the long term monthly charts, it's extremely dangerous to try to call the top of this market. It could go higher or a lot higher then crash or slow decline. We don't know. No one does. Intraday there will always be a place to go short and long.

I learned my lessons about trying to call tops. I stopped now. I lost a lot of money in 2017 buying TVIX thinking the market will crash any day now. Of course it went to all time high and just rocketed on. After I took a bloodbath, then the infamous Feb 5, 2018 VIX implosion happened which would have made me a lot of money had I shorted that day. Not earlier. So timing tops in a swing trading context is extremely difficult and dangerous to your financial health! haha

Now, I need to learn to stop buying bottoms. Then I will be a supertrader. Most of my trades are good and profitable. It's just when I try to countertrend I lose money. I stopped shorting tops and now I'm profitable. Now just need to stop trying to catch falling knife then I should be good.
 
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