Market has topped on 2019/11/07. Get the hell out now.

Nobody can predict, but.... small recent S&P candles show buying pressure is slowing.

I'm deeply skeptical about an upside continuation continuing up to 3200 without a pullback or reversal soon; we're right under 3100 resistance.

+ I will start heavily buying SQQQ TVIX SOXS VXX etc once S&P loses support under 3030.
(I'm currently long small size in several; I took small stops scaling out on recent move down).

+ I will add to inverse winners at 2day high breakouts & above minor upside gaps.

+ imo the VIX is way overdone here at 12; MACD almost crossing back up.

The S&P may be on thin ice; when selling inevitably comes back it'll move fast.View attachment 213076

View attachment 213077


That's a valid observation; agreed, buying pressure weaker now. But this is a periodic feature of any extended uptrend: a long way from a topping signal on its own.
 
The SPY currently yields a 1.8% dividend. That's the only return that you can kind of count on and even then it's not guaranteed. Forward P/E has not been realized. It's just a guess.

earnings yield.

div is irrelevant.. name of the game now is buy back.
 
Market already down. So much for free money overnight folks.

I don't even know how to respond to this.

You know that shit doesn't really work, right? And that it only works when it works? You've been spending too much time around Rickshaw.

Asia has not opened yet, France is on Armistice day for the early morning, and then US is on reduced hours for Vet Day.

As if the equity index futures never went down after-hours before? Geez us!
 
I don't even know how to respond to this.

You know that shit doesn't really work, right? And that it only works when it works? You've been spending too much time around Rickshaw.

Asia has not opened yet, France is on Armistice day for the early morning, and then US is on reduced hours for Vet Day.

As if the equity index futures never went down after-hours before? Geez us!


problem is many people trade based on prediction (or fortune telling).
the right way is to trade based on what the chart is telling us & react to market

anyway those who shorted index futures an hour ago should be earning tons of money.
 
...

anyway those who shorted index futures an hour ago should be earning tons of money.

And I am trying to make the point that there is no such thing as risk $$$ free overnight. It exists in fantasy land.

The overarching point that Noddyboy is making, about a market top? Fool's errand.

Noddy, don't do that.
 
earnings yield.

div is irrelevant.. name of the game now is buy back.

You don't actually get the earnings yield. You only get the dividend and whatever profit collected when the trade is closed.
 
10 year Treasury is also yielding 1.8%. The risk of 10 year Treasury/medium term bonds losing principal is non zero.

If you hold until maturity, you'll get your full principle back plus the 1.8% interest. However, the buying power of the dollars returned might be significantly lower than when the trade was put on. So when considered from that angle, yes there is still a risk of loss. I'm not advocating buying 10 year treasuries at 1.8% yield.
 
This call isn't a daytrading call. I recommended to exit longs on 11/8/2019, and start building a short position. The holding period will be for months.
 
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