Market Crash? Not Yet.... So Far, Just Orderly Nervousness

vincentnyc said:
i told you I have 70% cash position in my 401k as of today 5/12/22, did I not? Now get off my dick.
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Sorry Vinc, Didn't mean to get on your nerves. I'm sure you are providing a valueable service telling us about what you are doing. Kind of like listening to a weather forecast a day late.

I know I don't have to read your posts but it's like driving by an accident, gotta take a look. I'm always looking to learn something new but so far you have been a disappointment.

I had assumed you were more than 70% cash because you were 30% in stocks on tuesday and I'm sure the value of your stocks has dropped since then.
 
deaddog said:
Sorry Vinc, Didn't mean to get on your nerves. I'm sure you are providing a valueable service telling us about what you are doing. Kind of like listening to a weather forecast a day late.

I know I don't have to read your posts but it's like driving by an accident, gotta take a look. I'm always looking to learn something new but so far you have been a disappointment.

I had assumed you were more than 70% cash because you were 30% in stocks on tuesday and I'm sure the value of your stocks has dropped since then.
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Correction…i am 70% cash on my 401k since 11/1/21.
 
nitrene said:
I was always fascinated with Elliot Wave analysis but the thing I never understood was how do you differentiate between a bear market and a 10-20% correction within a bull market. Seems like magnitude is the difference. Another problem is the endless Fed put since the days of the Asian Real Estate Collapse in 1997 as well as the LTCM liquidity problem.
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The media(?) glommed onto the notion of "-10% is a correction" and "-20% is a bear market". But a real bear market is also psychological.... month-after-month of grinding down with desperate longs agonizing over their losses. The notion of a "quick -20% = bear market" is ridiculous. The market can be down -20% but then recover relatively quickly. That's not "prolonged anguish and despair" by investors. What mostly makes a bear market is time. Consider the Nasdaq after the dot.com bust... -83% over 3 years. THAT's a bear market.

Today's investors are like spoiled children. Market dips a bit and they start clamoring for the Fed to "do something". Years ago a dip of -25% was considered "just noise".
 
easymon1 said:
post your short entries charts up?
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hint: pull out a daily spy and vix chart, mark your level of support and resistance for both for each day and trade according based on your stats and risk level. i do pair trading between uvxy/sqqq/tqqq/spxl
 
vincentnyc said:
hint: pull out a daily spy and vix chart, mark your level of support and resistance for both for each day and trade according based on your stats and risk level. i do pair trading between uvxy/sqqq/tqqq/spxl
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Show us? Post some charts?
 
Scataphagos said:
For EWavers... I'm thinking today's bounce might be W4 of W1 of W3 in the bear. Downside "fireworks" will be in W3 of W3.... which will be coming up after about a 50% retracement of this drop from SP 4637.... that will be the W2 of W3... not ready to begin immediately.... needs another dip to lower lows to be W5 of W1 to its completion.
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Market completed the described "5-waves down, impulse wave" @ 3855. That was either the entire W3 in the bear... in which case the bear will be more "average" than "severe"... and will likely be completed by the fall. OR... the impulse wave was actually "Wave 1 of Wave 3" of the bear.... in which case the bear will be much more severe and last into 2023 or later. (Personally, I think this is the more likely.) Can't know which it is at this time...

Regardless of which is correct, market should rally here... 4200-4400 most likely upside target before turning down again.

FWIW...
 
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Scataphagos said:
Market completed the described "5-waves down, impulse wave" @ 3855. That was either the entire W3 in the bear... in which case the bear will be more "average" than "severe"... and will likely be completed by the fall. OR... the impulse wave was actually "Wave 1 of Wave 3" of the bear.... in which case the bear will be much more severe and last into 2023 or later. (Personally, I think this is the more likely.) Can't know which it is at this time...

Regardless of which is correct, market should rally here... 4200-4400 most likely upside target before turning down again.

FWIW...
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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-25#post-5546083
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