Market Crash? Not Yet.... So Far, Just Orderly Nervousness

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

IF my wave count is correct... and if there is going to be something we'll look back upon as a "crash"... it will likely start after the next correction/bounce.

More details later if it looks like that's what is playing out.

For EWavers... I'm thinking today's bounce might be W4 of W1 of W3 in the bear. Downside "fireworks" will be in W3 of W3.... which will be coming up after about a 50% retracement of this drop from SP 4637.... that will be the W2 of W3... not ready to begin immediately.... needs another dip to lower lows to be W5 of W1 to its completion.

Big Picture... If my read is correct, we are not yet even 1/2 the way down on this bear market... potential Fed and PPT intervention notwithstanding. Trade accordingly.

FWIW...
 
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JackMorgan said:
its a crash if you owned any one of 1000's of stocks

what are you looking for , down 5000 on the dow ?
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So far, "no crash". Investors have had the opportunity to exit and limit the damage. A "crash" happens so fast and is so big everybody is trapped. Nothing we've seen so far is anything like that.

The only "crashes" I ever saw (or can see in the charts) was the one in 1987... -22% in one day.... and the "fat-finger flash crash" of a few years back which was mostly reversed in one day.
 
Scataphagos said:
IF my wave count is correct... and if there is going to be something we'll look back upon as a "crash"... it will likely start after the next correction/bounce.

More details later if it looks like that's what is playing out.

For EWavers... I'm thinking today's bounce might be W4 of W1 of W3 in the bear. Downside "fireworks" will be in W3 of W3.... which will be coming up after about a 50% retracement of this drop from SP 4637.... that will be the W2 of W3... not ready to begin immediately.... needs another dip to lower lows to be W5 of W1 to its completion.

Big Picture... If my read is correct, we are not yet even 1/2 the way down on this bear market... potential Fed and PPT intervention notwithstanding. Trade accordingly.

FWIW...
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Did Alex Jones gift you his EWave library? It’s a dumpster fire, Amigo! Stick with PA.
 
some ppl trade with elliot waves, bolinger bands, moving averages, simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, support and resistance, ichumuku cloud, fibonacci etc.

i trade with my eyeballs. good old 10,000 hours of screen times. my eyeballs is telling me to short the stonk market as of 5/12/22. and keep doing it until i see otherwise.
 
vincentnyc said:
some ppl trade with elliot waves, bolinger bands, moving averages, simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, support and resistance, ichumuku cloud, fibonacci etc.

i trade with my eyeballs. good old 10,000 hours of screen times. my eyeballs is telling me to short the stonk market as of 5/12/22. and keep doing it until i see otherwise.
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Suggest holding off on your short at this time*. Save it for 4250-4350 (ES).. perhaps as early as next week. If this turns out to be prescient, you can send me a box of Omaha steaks! :)

*But if you feel compelled, suggest making the play with put options where your downside will be limited.
 
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I was always fascinated with Elliot Wave analysis but the thing I never understood was how do you differentiate between a bear market and a 10-20% correction within a bull market. Seems like magnitude is the difference. Another problem is the endless Fed put since the days of the Asian Real Estate Collapse in 1997 as well as the LTCM liquidity problem.
 
vincentnyc said:
i trade with my eyeballs. good old 10,000 hours of screen times. my eyeballs is telling me to short the stonk market as of 5/12/22. and keep doing it until i see otherwise.
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This from a guy with a long term portfolio that's dropping every day.
 
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