Market Calls
- Thread starter inandlong
- Start date
Coming soon
Dow to 10350
or Dow to 9700
I think 10260 may be the top, but 350 could be tested before the fall to 9700.
Which offers the better risk/reward from the current level ?
Dow to 10350
or Dow to 9700
I think 10260 may be the top, but 350 could be tested before the fall to 9700.
Which offers the better risk/reward from the current level ?
Still short calls:
JCP May 45 @ .90
JCP May 47.5 @ 1.70
JCP May 50 @ 2.80
Maestro from a "clinch factor" your initial thought about the 50's would have provided more comfort throughout this trade. There is a lot of moving average competition on the hourly and daily chart at the current price .... for those who believe in that hogwash.... like me.
JCP May 45 @ .90
JCP May 47.5 @ 1.70
JCP May 50 @ 2.80
Maestro from a "clinch factor" your initial thought about the 50's would have provided more comfort throughout this trade. There is a lot of moving average competition on the hourly and daily chart at the current price .... for those who believe in that hogwash.... like me.
Quote from inandlong:
Still short calls:
JCP May 45 @ .90
JCP May 47.5 @ 1.70
JCP May 50 @ 2.80
Maestro from a "clinch factor" your initial thought about the 50's would have provided more comfort throughout this trade. There is a lot of moving average competition on the hourly and daily chart at the current price .... for those who believe in that hogwash.... like me.
Just got back from my doctor. With regards to your trade.
If I may suggest:
1. Write 50 Nov Calls @ $3.70.
2. Sell 45 Nov puts @ $3.20
3. Buy back your 45 May calls.
That is how I would repair it. You tight up your capital but you will have a greater chance to finish this trade on the + side.
I would be glad to discuss it further.
Cheers.
Hey Maestro, I hope all is well with your health.
I don't think the trade needs repair. Even if JCP were to hit 50 and I bot in 100% I'd still make money. We're in the filet of the theta curve for May and I'm only 10 cents out on the 45's if the options expired right now.
That said, I'd love to hear from you about your trading style re: shorter term profit objectives.
I wish I had posted that JCP was an inside narrow range day prior to the open. Man I love that setup.
I don't think the trade needs repair. Even if JCP were to hit 50 and I bot in 100% I'd still make money. We're in the filet of the theta curve for May and I'm only 10 cents out on the 45's if the options expired right now.
That said, I'd love to hear from you about your trading style re: shorter term profit objectives.
I wish I had posted that JCP was an inside narrow range day prior to the open. Man I love that setup.
I don't mean to undermine your strategy, I'm just trying to be helpful.
If JCP goes to $50 before the end of the month your deficiency will be:
- $5 from the 45 calls plus -$ 2.50 from the 47.50 call. = - $7.50.
You have collected $0.90 + $1.70 + $2.80 = $5.40. It means that you need JCP ending somewhere below $47.90 which is only $0.10 away. Given average volatility (35%) and current average delta of all of your options (0.4) you have approximately 80% chance of the stock finishing higher than $48.
In my scenario though:
You take a hit for $2.40 but you collect $11.40. So you have approximately $37 to $58 channel to lock your profits.
It looks much safer to me.
I don't think you are trying to undermine at all Maestro. I appreciate your time and help.
And... stupid me... I neglected to mention that I bought in the shares to cover the 45's at a few cents below 47.50 late last week. That just might have made a difference in your analysis. You think? :eek:
And... stupid me... I neglected to mention that I bought in the shares to cover the 45's at a few cents below 47.50 late last week. That just might have made a difference in your analysis. You think? :eek: