Market Bottom ?

Relax. Be patient. Very very patient. We have known this was coming for at least two years. We will probably have some lovely rallies on the way down. Relax, Don't worry, be happy. Whichever way the market goes you can make money if you'll let loose of your preconceived biases. Just don't let yourself get trapped on the wrong side (whatever that is?) :)
 
Quote from dumbgai:

This is exactly what you will see at market bottoms - when all the small money speculators are bearish - the perfect time to go long, looking forward 1 to 3 month. People always give reasons why the market will not go up this time, as they did in August, Feb, 2006, 2005, 2004, and so on.

It is human nature to try to pick tops and bottoms. As far as I know people have been picking calling tops every time we have had a 5-10 pct correction, and they have been wrong at least the last 10 times.

Personally speaking, too many bad traders I know are bearish right now, I'd be surprised if we are not 2 or 3 pct away from a temporary bottom.

When fear is high, people will rationalize that this time will be different, that this time we have topped, and this time we will go down 20 pct in a straight line.
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Its funny, I remember tuning into cnbc on Oct 31 right after the market had closed and was watching fast money. They talked about a melt up going into the end of 2007, it was within a week of that program when cramer announced that buying anything was the way to go, he talked about buying BIDU at $400+ and GOOG at $700+. Nearly every talking head has been wrong about buying up these markets into the end of 2007. The S&P 500 is now negative on the year. The russell 2000 is down 6% on the year.



I believe a temporary bottom may be in place, I think though that if the market does add heavy gains many will be selling into these rallies. I really dont think this time around we get the bounces we got like we did on FEB 27th and AUG 16th. I think the DOW could make another run for 13500 again but I DO NOT SEE new highs in 2007.
 
Do you notice that the pundits no longer look helpless and confused when stocks go down a lot... That is because they are all short now. In August they were looking at their quote screens just baffled. Then they would bring someone on the split screen tv to remind everyone that the global economy is strong. And now they are all short.
 
I think the true test of the economy is reail sales this coming friday, true test of consumer spending.

Based on the outcome, we could see the bottom fall out of the market. I am not in any way speculating on what the outcome is but it will be important.


Have a good Turkey day.
 
ok here is where I stand...profits are done for this cycle....the consumer is in BAD shape..dollar= bubkas....heating oil???if you need it your toast..and then we have stock....how bad is a recesssion when you reside at the rents and you are 30+?
 
What's bad is the lack of capitulation this time.
There's way too much anticipation of a bottom still. Another really good day of selling or two is needed to finally and definitively get everyone busted and disgusted.
 
Quote from trefoil:

What's bad is the lack of capitulation this time.
There's way too much anticipation of a bottom still. Another really good day of selling or two is needed to finally and definitively get everyone busted and disgusted.
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yep.. the market has schooled everyone into buying the dips into any considerable correction .. everyone i talk to is looking for an entry ...

this is a bearish sign !!!

i say we try and test FEB lows ...
 
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