Market Bottom ?
- Thread starter FAST.AM
- Start date
The market cannot achieve two days of back to back gains.
Look at any index chart. It is down at a 45 degree angle. Any small rally is met with overwhelming selling. The end of everyday is all about selloffs.
All the gains made from the rate cut are gone, with more damage done to the dollar, with nothing to show for it. Why would the fed cut again? The rally will just be sold into, again. I'm sure they (fed) know this. The refusal of the fed to cut in December will cause another downleg, but it would happen anyway.
There is a new rumor, downgrade, etc., floated everyday to take the market lower. It seems very orchestrated, especially among the brokerage firms, while at the same time they will not lower guidance.
It shows you that earnings, etc., are worthless. The U.S. market has become a third world stock exchange.
The "credit crisis" is perfect. It is faceless, so no one goes to jail. How can a, at worse, 1 in 30 default rate on sub prime cause this damage, when the underlying is a hard asset?
Can someone explain this? (I mean this as a serious question, really)
When you think it can't go lower, it does. Nothing has happened to indicate we are at a bottom, especially because there are traders that look at this thinking there will be a rally. If they stopped buying, the trading would become 100% short, and then we would be at a bottom.
My guess is the hedge funds are trying to get their money back from this summer. Stop letting them take your money. A one sided market does not work, and neither does a manipulated one.
- jtTrader
Look at any index chart. It is down at a 45 degree angle. Any small rally is met with overwhelming selling. The end of everyday is all about selloffs.
All the gains made from the rate cut are gone, with more damage done to the dollar, with nothing to show for it. Why would the fed cut again? The rally will just be sold into, again. I'm sure they (fed) know this. The refusal of the fed to cut in December will cause another downleg, but it would happen anyway.
There is a new rumor, downgrade, etc., floated everyday to take the market lower. It seems very orchestrated, especially among the brokerage firms, while at the same time they will not lower guidance.
It shows you that earnings, etc., are worthless. The U.S. market has become a third world stock exchange.
The "credit crisis" is perfect. It is faceless, so no one goes to jail. How can a, at worse, 1 in 30 default rate on sub prime cause this damage, when the underlying is a hard asset?
Can someone explain this? (I mean this as a serious question, really)
When you think it can't go lower, it does. Nothing has happened to indicate we are at a bottom, especially because there are traders that look at this thinking there will be a rally. If they stopped buying, the trading would become 100% short, and then we would be at a bottom.
My guess is the hedge funds are trying to get their money back from this summer. Stop letting them take your money. A one sided market does not work, and neither does a manipulated one.
- jtTrader
The market should of ran its course in August. The correction was in place but the FED stepped in and made things worse with the cut Aug. 17th.
The only thing the bulls have going for them is anticipation of cuts. A cut of .25 in DEC. won't cause a huge rally. Will just make things worse especially to our dollar. Credit bubbles always pop and never ends nice. We are still in the middle of it. Let the god damn market crash already. 2003-07 were good years to the bulls. It's time for the bears to swagger a little.
Global market correction is in place again but just when you think things will keep falling, it doesn't. Is this time different? Only time will tell.
The only thing the bulls have going for them is anticipation of cuts. A cut of .25 in DEC. won't cause a huge rally. Will just make things worse especially to our dollar. Credit bubbles always pop and never ends nice. We are still in the middle of it. Let the god damn market crash already. 2003-07 were good years to the bulls. It's time for the bears to swagger a little.
Global market correction is in place again but just when you think things will keep falling, it doesn't. Is this time different? Only time will tell.
so hard to get a grip of this week because it seems nobody wants to take on risk with a long weekend coming up.
stocks dropped around the world, carry trades getting hit, flight to quality in the bond market...
stocks dropped around the world, carry trades getting hit, flight to quality in the bond market...
The market should have ran its course is absolutely right. If they did NOT get in the middle of it, the markets would have been in bear territory by now, but since they decided to pump the markets up with liquidity and cut rates this is why the market is falling like it is.
I have been saying this for months that the ONLY catalyst left for this market are rate cuts. Even those cant do much now. I think the DOW could easily fall through its August 16th intraday lows. Where it goes from there is anyones guess. I would not be surprised if it fell below 12k by the end of 2007. I got fooled twice in 2007, once on Feb 27th and again on August 16th. I actually took out some long positions on this drop but decided to still stick with my shorts and inverse funds as well. Im looking to sell my entire short position and inverse funds under 12,000. I think it may be time to get bullish around DOW 11250-11750.
This is exactly what you will see at market bottoms - when all the small money speculators are bearish - the perfect time to go long, looking forward 1 to 3 month. People always give reasons why the market will not go up this time, as they did in August, Feb, 2006, 2005, 2004, and so on.
It is human nature to try to pick tops and bottoms. As far as I know people have been picking calling tops every time we have had a 5-10 pct correction, and they have been wrong at least the last 10 times.
Personally speaking, too many bad traders I know are bearish right now, I'd be surprised if we are not 2 or 3 pct away from a temporary bottom.
When fear is high, people will rationalize that this time will be different, that this time we have topped, and this time we will go down 20 pct in a straight line.
It is human nature to try to pick tops and bottoms. As far as I know people have been picking calling tops every time we have had a 5-10 pct correction, and they have been wrong at least the last 10 times.
Personally speaking, too many bad traders I know are bearish right now, I'd be surprised if we are not 2 or 3 pct away from a temporary bottom.
When fear is high, people will rationalize that this time will be different, that this time we have topped, and this time we will go down 20 pct in a straight line.
Which market????? The Hang Seng is getting murdered. -4% yesterday, -3% today?
Unless Superman shows up and spins the Earth backwards in time, looks like it could go to that 200 weeker.
Or maybe the Silver Surfer could do it.
That could be some serious damage. Like 2000. If it plays out, makes you think there could be some cataclysmic "event" in the mix like the last time.
Or maybe the Silver Surfer could do it.
That could be some serious damage. Like 2000. If it plays out, makes you think there could be some cataclysmic "event" in the mix like the last time.