mark brown said he found the holy grail.

[dwpeters]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

ok you guys, then show me a system that trades in the direction of an MA's slope that is profitable in the long run.

http://www.mebanefaber.com/timing-model/

This is a long term strategy, trading only monthly at most with hold times from months to years, but it outperforms buy and hold. I tested daily and weekly moving average crossovers myself. In most cases they produced better risk adjusted returns than buy and hold though few were better than the monthly strategy, especially when considering the trading frequency.

I have not tested intraday moving averages.

 

[NoDoji]

I kind of miss ddav, who had gained possession of the Holy Grail a few months ago. His system could predict perfect pivot points (tops and bottoms) to the exact tick. He would show us charts of these perfectly chosen trades every day.

There was some kind of strange time warp, though, that prevented him from posting any of the trade calls in real time.

Maybe the Holy Grail causes a time warp to prevent the possessor of it from sharing the Holy Grailness with everyone, because that could immediately bring the market to a standstill :eek:

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from dwpeters:

http://www.mebanefaber.com/timing-model/

This is a long term strategy, trading only monthly at most with hold times from months to years, but it outperforms buy and hold. I tested daily and weekly moving average crossovers myself. In most cases they produced better risk adjusted returns than buy and hold though few were better than the monthly strategy, especially when considering the trading frequency.

I have not tested intraday moving averages.

Buying when prices crosses 10MA to the upside? lol.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from NoDoji:

I kind of miss ddav, who had gained possession of the Holy Grail a few months ago. His system could predict perfect pivot points (tops and bottoms) to the exact tick. He would show us charts of these perfectly chosen trades every day.

There was some kind of strange time warp, though, that prevented him from posting any of the trade calls in real time.

Maybe the Holy Grail causes a time warp to prevent the possessor of it from sharing the Holy Grailness with everyone, because that could immediately bring the market to a standstill :eek:

There was that one dude who posted "tomorrow's chart today." Sometimes he missed, sometimes he was pretty accurate.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

LOL AT THE FACT THAT ALL CHOP/TREND INDICATORS ARE BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA. I don't need an indicator to tell me if the market was just choppy or trendy

Incorrect. Indicators are based on past AND PRESENT data. If you look at a trend indicator that includes the latest datum, you're looking at the current trend, not historical trend.

"The best evidence that a market is going to go up is that it's already doing so. The best evidence that a market is going to go down is that it's already doing so." -- J. Welles Wilder Jr.

 

[trader3cnd]

The holy grail is having a lot of money so you can move the market in your direciton no matter what. It is very simple.

Now, as far as the guy who is stil talking about "Omega Research TradeStation", this is probably because he has no clue how useless that product was and how misleading were the backtests it produced.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from kut2k2:

Incorrect. Indicators are based on past AND PRESENT data. If you look at a trend indicator that includes the latest datum, you're looking at the current trend, not historical trend.

You cannot tell from present data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

You also cannot tell from past data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

So regardless of if it uses past data or past and present data, it still is useless

What's funny is people keep coming up with new ways to try and sell (literally) the idea that you can.

"HAY GUIZE THIS MOMENTUM INDICATOR TELLS YOU THE MARKET CONDITION!!!!" Um... it tells you what the current market condition is, but not what it will be one bar from now in the future.

Shit, it's easy to write a formula to code an indicator to look at how much price has changed recently relative to more in the past. BAM! Momentum indicator. I've written dozens back when I was looking for a holy grail indicator-based system. I even came up with an adaptive MA that changes its lookback period based on "momentum" (or how volatile the market is) with the idea that all you would have to do is trade in the direction of the MAs slope (ideally it was supposed to keep you from getting stopped out repeatedly during chop, which is the weakness of such a system) but it was still worthless because you cannot predict future movement/volatility based on previous movement/volatility. Is any of this going to help any? No.

"HAY GUIZE MY MOMENTUM INDICATOR SAYS THE MARKET IS CHILL RIGHT NOW, TIME TO FADE BOLLINGER BANDS LOLOLOL"

Guess what, a new trend is about to begin. And then it will be:

"I DON'T GET IT! MY INDICATOR SAID THERE WAS HIGH MOMENTUM SO I ENTERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TREND AND GOT STOPPED OUT! DOES ANYONE HAVE A MOMENTUM INDICATOR THAT WORKS???"

At least some people are a little creative, like the TTM squeeze indicator (which was stolen from some random discussion on a forum, renamed, and sold... that shoulda been a lawsuit, actually). But even that indicator is useless (not including the fact that it doesn't test with positive expectancy) but even its theory is flawed because just because the markets have been "calm" for a certain period of time does not mean that a big move is coming. Gambler's fallacy.

"The best evidence that a market is going to go up is that it's already doing so. The best evidence that a market is going to go down is that it's already doing so." -- J. Welles Wilder Jr.

Just cuz that guy invented a bunch of indicators doesn't mean he knows what he's talking about. I've invented a bunch, too. Do they work? No. Neither do anyone else's.

There is no momentum in the market. There is no "inertia" like people want to think there is. Otherwise, all you guys wouldn't keep buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

 

[trend2009]

make sense.

Quote from trader3cnd:

The holy grail is having a lot of money so you can move the market in your direciton no matter what. It is very simple.

Now, as far as the guy who is stil talking about "Omega Research TradeStation", this is probably because he has no clue how useless that product was and how misleading were the backtests it produced.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

You cannot tell from present data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

You also cannot tell from past data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

So regardless of if it uses past data or past and present data, it still is useless

We can make pretty decent weather forecasts based only on past and present data, but according to you, nobody can say anything at all about where the market is going based on past and present data. No sense in arguing, clearly this is a religious point for you.

 

[Visaria]

Remember, most people try to "let their winners run" and "cut their losers short."

[/B]

I don't think they do. The vast majority of people do the opposite. Of course, it wouldn't matter anyway if they don't have an edge.