mark brown said he found the holy grail.

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from kut2k2:

We can make pretty decent weather forecasts based only on past and present data, but according to you, nobody can say anything at all about where the market is going based on past and present data. No sense in arguing, clearly this is a religious point for you.

The weather is not like the market. Holy crap that was the worst analogy ever

You remind me of the "guru" that was being tooled in another thread where he said at one of his seminars "you don't need to be a weather man to predict the weather 5 minutes from now" in an attempt to explain trading.

Terrible

Look, if SPY is currently at 135, then in 5 minutes it's probably not going to be at 100. But what does that knowledge do for you in trading? Nothing. There is an equal chance of it going up or down. So in 5 minutes it might be at 135.10 or 129.90.

The market being analogous to the weather

That's like the dude in my Fibonacci thread trying to say that fibs match the "universal patterns of nature" or some voodoo and then from that, immediately jumping to "therefore they predict stock prices"



edit - before anyone misunderstands, I don't actually believe fibs have any magic power at all. They are no better or worse than random lines and retracements. But I demonstrated how to use them profitably if you are so inclined, and if you believe they do in fact have magic powers, then you will be super confident using them.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from kut2k2:

We can make pretty decent weather forecasts based only on past and present data, but according to you, nobody can say anything at all about where the market is going based on past and present data. No sense in arguing, clearly this is a religious point for you.

No, it's a religious issue for the TA true believers. The weather analogy is spurious since there is generally one forecast that is agreed upon no matter how many meteorologists are surveyed. Chart based TA followers, on the other hand, ask 50 of them what the chart says and you will get 53 answers.

It seems to work because you can always find examples in your own trading and particularly in others analysis where it worked... Folks are really good at forgetting thise many times it doesn't work.

The Chart Artists are the cult, not the skeptics.

 

[Zr1Trader]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

There is an equal chance of it going up or down. So in 5 minutes it might be at 135.10 or 129.90.

No it isn't 50/50 the market isn't a coin.

I could tell you when the market is 70% more likely to go one direction over another but then I would have to kill you

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from marketsurfer:

The weather analogy is spurious since there is generally one forecast that is agreed upon no matter how many meteorologists are surveyed.

Tell that to the global warming deniers.

Your problem is that you want 100% certainty out of TA prediction. Nobody can get that. And you'll never be satisfied with, say, a 55% chance of being right because you don't know how to exploit it. Sad.

Quote from marketsurfer:

The Chart Artists are the cult, not the skeptics.

You've been pushing the cult of random walk as long as I've been here.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from kut2k2:

Tell that to the global warming deniers.

Your problem is that you want 100% certainty of TA prediction. Nobody can get that. And you'll never be satisfied with, say, a 55% chance of being right because you don't know how to exploit it. Sad.

Ha, good point but still irrelevant.

I disagree. If you could get a consistent 55% odds in your favor, I believe you could corner markets, you would become the house.

I realize nothing is 100%, even arb most of the time. However, Can charters even prove 51% accuracy? If not, charts are nothing but a crutch.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from marketsurfer:

If you could get a consistent 55% odds in your favor, I believe you could corner markets, you would become the house.

This.

 

[TD80]

I don't know about recently because Mark went on sort of a sabbatical of sorts and sort of fell off the trading grid years ago, but historically speaking he is the real deal and unfortunately his biggest errors were sharing too much with too many.

 

[trend2009]

I did not find he mentioned anything related to his holy grail method on this site. I am not to uncover his method, just curious about a general description such as trend following or reversion to mean, or chart based, etc. do you have any idea ?

Quote from TD80:

I don't know about recently because Mark went on sort of a sabbatical of sorts and sort of fell off the trading grid years ago, but historically speaking he is the real deal and unfortunately his biggest errors were sharing too much with too many.

 

[eudaemon]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

You cannot tell from present data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

You also cannot tell from past data if the market is going to be choppy or trendy going forward.

I can do both, consistently, a small percentage of the time, when the powers that be are active and obvious. I also found a simple way to implement my "predictions" so that I lose very little or gain when they fail (when they fail, they usually fail spectacularly).

I'm selling my simple secrets for $5 billion, paid in advance, no refunds allowed, if you are interested.

Oh, I forgot. My method scales up till about 100,000 ES minis size, after that it'll probably break down, as usual. So I'm not selling you the holy grail.

If you give me the $5 billion, I promise I will cease to trade it myself and will not sell any other copies of the method.

 

[clacy]

Having been a sales person for over 10 years in my previous profession, I can tell you that this guy is a salesman pure and simple. Look at his website. Go to the home page, etc. This guys website is geared toward selling his services and his brand.

There are two scenarios that I can see someone putting out trading information:

1- They actually have something of value to say, which means they are very successful in their own trading. If they want to "help" struggling traders, or feel the need to socialize, they can easily do that with a basic, free website/blog.

2- They actually can't trade, so they need to generate revenue through different avenues.

Go to his website and tell me which category it falls into. Why would someone go through the trouble of setting up this type of site and company do that unless he had something to sell?

If he has something to sell, then obviously he doesn't have a holy grail.