Make sense of this market?

I'm only here to make sure someone actually tells it how it is rather than the fantasy most (all) spew out, the reality being you have 92% probability of loss 92% of the time
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If your perspective is based upon a 92% probability of loss, it's indicative
you're still searching for a winning edge. If I lost that much, I'd quit trading
and start raising chickens for a living.

chickens.png
 
alistera said:
Markets go in cycles and waves, but it's true today it's more complex, the margin of error has been reduced, for example we're now tracking medium level news as it skews the markets enough to create profitable trades similar to high priority news, and no you don't trade the news you use it to propel your profits.

I'm only here to make sure someone actually tells it how it is rather than the fantasy most (all) spew out, the reality being you have 92% probability of loss 92% of the time, making the "profitable" intersection at 0.64% with breakeven at 8%, in the past you made profits towards the 8%, today you don't, that's what's been lost!

Now saying that I booked a healthy percentage this week daytrading, sure if you are not beyond exhausted by Thursday with the energy of a sloth for the weekend preparing for the next week then you're probably not doing it correctly, I traded in to Friday because why not, missed an interesting amount with the wrong sequencing but that's the way it goes.

The ultimate fact is that the markets have become more complex so that fewer can absorb the riches it has to offer, but why would you want it any other way.
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If you are only at 8% win rate, you are probably, trading a system with negative expectation. Considering, your gains when you do win would have to be gargantuan (highly unlikely) and your 92% losing trades would have to be very, very, very tiny (highly unlikely). While, trading is still a game of percentages, even if you have just a 10% edge, you will make a fortune. Just look at the Las Vegas casinos (on the strip) make tens of billions every single year in total. Their advantages in games could be small like in blackjack 1.54%, craps 2%, roulette 5%, slots 10% yet, they pile on the profits. Trading edge (positive expectation) is pretty much the same. Reality is you probably, will win 40-60% of your trades and that is more than enough to provide you substantial profits provided, your gains are multiples larger than your losses. Do the math.
 
mute9003 said:
Im obviously a new trader
I dont understand why is this market being so erratic and random and unpredictable
Is it manipulated by algos to keep traders from using any strategy?
Is it traders just randomly trading without any structure?

Why is it so hard to follow this year?
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The market is an adaptive system wherein millions of players compete, constantly and desperately, for the tiniest scraps of edge. If you are expecting the market in 2023 to be “easy to follow” using typical retail-accessible tools and strategies then you’ve got another thing coming.

Of course there are moments in time where everything seems to trend well and make sense. Make hay while the sun shines, stay in your foxhole the rest of the time.
 
Rather than fight it, embrace it. Ever try swimming up a river? If you want to cross a river, use the currents. You are fighting the tape, and the tape will hand you a large "tax" bill. Does not matter if the tape is smooth trending, choppy with fits, or anything in-between.

You don't have enough experience yet. You need to "go around the block" about 4-5 times. Just conserve your funds, go paper real time until you have a reasonable system working.

But enough with the "advice". The market is in a transition period, so lots of cross currents and what used to be smooth waves turns into chop. It is a sign unto itself. A sign of what? That the market is in transition.
 
alistera said:
Markets go in cycles and waves, but it's true today it's more complex, the margin of error has been reduced, for example we're now tracking medium level news as it skews the markets enough to create profitable trades similar to high priority news, and no you don't trade the news you use it to propel your profits.

I'm only here to make sure someone actually tells it how it is rather than the fantasy most (all) spew out, the reality being you have 92% probability of loss 92% of the time, making the "profitable" intersection at 0.64% with breakeven at 8%, in the past you made profits towards the 8%, today you don't, that's what's been lost!

Now saying that I booked a healthy percentage this week daytrading, sure if you are not beyond exhausted by Thursday with the energy of a sloth for the weekend preparing for the next week then you're probably not doing it correctly, I traded in to Friday because why not, missed an interesting amount with the wrong sequencing but that's the way it goes.

The ultimate fact is that the markets have become more complex so that fewer can absorb the riches it has to offer, but why would you want it any other way.
More...
Hello alistera,

If your statements is true, then why starting at 5pm central today, ticks will move 23 hours a day for 5 days a week?

Just think about ticks move about every second and up and down for 23 hours a day.

Do you really think those ticks would be moving if 92% of the trades was losses?
 
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SimpleMeLike said:
Hello alistera,

If your statements is true, then why starting at 5pm central today, ticks will move 23 hours a day for 5 days a week?

Just think about ticks move about every second and up and down for 23 hours a day.

Do you really think those ticks would be moving if 92% of the trades was losses?
More...

Hope is the greatest bastion of the human race, the key is to make sure you are not part of that noise, the combination of lack of experience and lack of time and lack of capital make a very small intersection for success :D
 
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