Make sense of this market?
- Thread starter mute9003
- Start date
Robert Morse
Sponsor
This is not new. I have been in this industry since 1981 and it has always been "erratic and random and unpredictable". It is easy to blame Algos, but all Algos do is execute orders over a short period of time that took a little more time before. You need to adapt and find your edge and not look for blame. Look for ways to take advantage these unpredictable markets. For me, the worst time to trade is when nothing moves. Then there are no opportunities.
Understanding is not part of the job description..., never has been - and neither is blaming something other than our self
Contextualize it (likely this will take time to get correct - called learning)
Trade what you see
Always use a stop loss
Guaranteed there exist tradable conditions - you simply need to suss them out
RN
Trying to explain markets movements as always due to cause and effect is surely a path to madness. I fell the better way is to have a probabalistic mindset toward market movements.
The way I look at it is that price can't go up until it has gone down first. Buy low sell high is rational behavior, but high and low are relative, not absolute. This requires a method that distinguishes between high and low. Hopefully at better than 50/50 odds.
There lies your path; to discover positive expectancy.
The way I look at it is that price can't go up until it has gone down first. Buy low sell high is rational behavior, but high and low are relative, not absolute. This requires a method that distinguishes between high and low. Hopefully at better than 50/50 odds.
There lies your path; to discover positive expectancy.
Good Morning mute9003
Take +100 trades a day or even 500 trades a day. Everything I do this, I solve my questions and problems
Markets go in cycles and waves, but it's true today it's more complex, the margin of error has been reduced, for example we're now tracking medium level news as it skews the markets enough to create profitable trades similar to high priority news, and no you don't trade the news you use it to propel your profits.
I'm only here to make sure someone actually tells it how it is rather than the fantasy most (all) spew out, the reality being you have 92% probability of loss 92% of the time, making the "profitable" intersection at 0.64% with breakeven at 8%, in the past you made profits towards the 8%, today you don't, that's what's been lost!
Now saying that I booked a healthy percentage this week daytrading, sure if you are not beyond exhausted by Thursday with the energy of a sloth for the weekend preparing for the next week then you're probably not doing it correctly, I traded in to Friday because why not, missed an interesting amount with the wrong sequencing but that's the way it goes.
The ultimate fact is that the markets have become more complex so that fewer can absorb the riches it has to offer, but why would you want it any other way.
I'm only here to make sure someone actually tells it how it is rather than the fantasy most (all) spew out, the reality being you have 92% probability of loss 92% of the time, making the "profitable" intersection at 0.64% with breakeven at 8%, in the past you made profits towards the 8%, today you don't, that's what's been lost!
Now saying that I booked a healthy percentage this week daytrading, sure if you are not beyond exhausted by Thursday with the energy of a sloth for the weekend preparing for the next week then you're probably not doing it correctly, I traded in to Friday because why not, missed an interesting amount with the wrong sequencing but that's the way it goes.
The ultimate fact is that the markets have become more complex so that fewer can absorb the riches it has to offer, but why would you want it any other way.