MAGA: Coronavirus Spreads Into the Red States

Buy1Sell2 said:
Nope----looks like a strong likelihood that my analysis will turn out to be correct---

Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think
Antibody tests could significantly underestimate the number of novel coronavirus infections.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237

Some early assumptions about Covid-19 no longer add up—and that could be good news for the future progress of the virus. There are reasons to think the novel coronavirus began spreading earlier than previously understood, raising the possibility that herd immunity is closer than we think.
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I like others have reported had some virus just after Christmas which was definately not the flu and if it was not covid-19 it was a damn close cousin symptom wise. Fever to 104F that kept recurring, intense muscle aches, coughing to the point a little blood showed and even a day of no smell.

The problem with jumping to the conclusion it was covid-19 is I volunteer in a hospice and I have been able to canvas a number of doctors, two were family docs and three geriatric specialists however none were aware of any odd virus. I was even tested for TB because of the blood, negative and there was no spike in mortality for elderly.

Add to this when I was ill I had rented a house in a hot area nearby and had lots of family and friends over for several days, 20 beds. Other than my father in law who I believe passed it to me in the car driving there, nobody got ill. The incubation period was also short, only three days.

My cousin in England said he had similar after the first week of December. He said the same it was not just a flu.

So there was a very covid like virus about but.. It was not especially contagious. I am happy to believe it was coronavirus, there are tons of Chinese road construction workers about, just how was it potent enough of make me ill for nine days, cough blood and yet not get noticed by doctors here in Medellin?

Others here on ET but living in the US also reported a weird Christmas 'flu' more reminiscent of covid-19.

Its a puzzle. Maybe it was just something else, or a covid cousin just that is also fraught with improbability.
 
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vanzandt said:
Herd immunity may not be achievable in fight against coronavirus
demarche.jpg

By Edmund DeMarche | Fox News
Video
Dr. Ramin Oskoui on how long protection from a potential coronavirus vaccine might last
Dr. Anthony Fauci suggests a coronavirus vaccine might require a booster shot to continue its protection; reaction from cardiologist Dr. Ramin Oskoui, CEO of Foxhall Cardiology.

A recent study in Spain showed that only five percent of the population there have antibodies to ward off the coronavirus despite the prevalence of the disease in the country where there have been nearly 30,000 deaths.

HERE'S HOW LONG YOU MAY HAVE TO WEAR MASK

Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London, told CNBC that it is common to see towns with only 10 to 15 percent immunity. He said it seems that immunity could “wane” in people after a few months.

TEXAS' CORONAVIRUS HOSPITALIZATIONS HIT NEW DAILY HIGH AS TOTAL CASES TOP 200,000

“It’s a very deceitful virus,” he said. “And immunity to it is very confusing and rather short-lived.”

CORONAVIRUS IMMUNITY CAN BE 'SHORT-LIVED,' EXPERT WARNS

The BBC reported that the study in Spain was one of the largest of its kind and included more than 60,000 people. Health officials have said the only chance the world has at getting back to normal would be a cure, proven vaccine or herd immunity.

The report, which was published in the Lancet, reportedly said, “Despite the high impact of COVID-19 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide her immunity.”

As Altmann said, it seems that herd immunity is unpredictable.

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A few weeks ago, the Lombardy region in Italy appeared to be on track to obtain herd immunity. Health officials said this week that of the nearly 10,000 residents in the city of Bergamo who had blood tests done between April 23 and June 3, about 57 percent had antibodies, indicating they had come into contact with the virus.

Fox News' Lucia I. Suarez Sang contributed to this report
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It's now believed that 15 percent of the population has T cell immunity. We are much closer to herd immunity than folks think but well behind Sweden. Also, it's might be that CCP virus is less contagious than people like GWB believe. We don't know yet.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
It's now believed that 15 percent of the population has T cell immunity. We are much closer to herd immunity than folks think but well behind Sweden. Also, it's might be that CCP virus is less contagious than people like GWB believe. We don't know yet.
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15 percent of some populations, maybe, unconfirmed and certainly not evenly spread.

But hope or guess is not much of anything for policy makers to go on and specific T cells are very hard to test for. Its important to also consider this is a tough bat host evolved virus, its a large RNA virus and while these should attenuate we can also expect the more to get it the greater the chance of a variant that is properly dangerous. We could be back to near square one through re-infections in four to six months.

I have a feeling this is going to be a headache for a long time. My only glimmer is the Oxford vaccine which might jump the shark given its new and more broadly covering design.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
It's now believed that 15 percent of the population has T cell immunity. We are much closer to herd immunity than folks think but well behind Sweden. Also, it's might be that CCP virus is less contagious than people like GWB believe. We don't know yet.
More...

Study after Study after Study is showing COVID-19 antibodies are present only for a few weeks in people after they recover. "Natural Herd Immunity" is a myth.

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7
  • A major new study in one of Europe's worst affected countries for the coronavirus finds no evidence of widespread immunity to the virus developing.
  • Just 5% of Spaniards were detected to have antibodies to the virus.
  • Fourteen percent of people who previously tested positive for antibodies tested negative just weeks later.
  • The study suggests people who experience mild symptoms do not have long-lasting protection.
  • "Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear," Raquel Yotti, the director of Spain's Carlos III Health Institute, said.
  • Another scientist involved said: "In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable."
(More at above url)
 
David Leonhardt: “There is no country in the world where confirmed coronavirus cases are growing as rapidly as they are in Arizona, Florida or South Carolina. The Sun Belt has become the global virus capital.”

“The only countries with outbreaks as severe as those across the Sunbelt are Bahrain, Oman and Qatar — three Middle Eastern countries with large numbers of low-wage migrant workers who are not citizens. These workers often live in cramped quarters, with subpar social services, and many have contracted the virus.”
 
exGOPer said:
David Leonhardt: “There is no country in the world where confirmed coronavirus cases are growing as rapidly as they are in Arizona, Florida or South Carolina. The Sun Belt has become the global virus capital.”

“The only countries with outbreaks as severe as those across the Sunbelt are Bahrain, Oman and Qatar — three Middle Eastern countries with large numbers of low-wage migrant workers who are not citizens. These workers often live in cramped quarters, with subpar social services, and many have contracted the virus.”
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BS
 
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