Macro trading

I think the US stock market is overheating and is due for some amount of pullback, and should start pricing in a certain probability of the toxic progressive policies, continued geopolitical tensions, and peaking global economy: SH

Speaking of geopolitical tensions, I will re-enter the energy-focused trades: USO and ERUS

Allocations: SH: 70%; USO: 10%, ERUS: 20%

Executing these shortly
 
Terminated SH, USO and ERUS positions at market close today. Here are the results for the past two weeks.
upload_2020-1-24_16-56-47.png
 
My theme for this week is Europe over US: stronger data coming out of Europe, and expecting unspectacular preliminary GDP for the US this week. Vgk: 70%, SH: 30%. Entering these shortly
 
Closed VGK and SH positions at market close today. Here are the results for this week:
upload_2020-1-31_16-11-32.png


None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only.
 
Effects from the virus have not peaked, and the prolonged factory closure and other effects will probably linger. Trades for the week: short China (YANG at 5% allocation); I think the market effects of China will spread to the US (SH at 95% allocation.) Placing these trades shortly

None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only.
 
Just terminated the SH and YANG positions and rotated into Oil, USO at 100% allocation. It appears that equity markets have treated the virus-related disruptions as relatively short term, with the rate of infection slowing down (even though the numbers are still growing.) With that backdrop, oil looks cheap to me at this point.

Here are the result for this week:

upload_2020-2-7_15-45-19.png


None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only.
 
Just sold this week's oil ETF position, and here are the results for this week:
upload_2020-2-14_15-52-3.png


While the human cost of the virus is devastating, the market impact seems to be contained. Now I will turn to consumer discretionaries (XLY at 100% allocation) - entering this trade now.

None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only.
 
While the effect of the virus on equity markets is relatively mild, I think due to the current geographic area of the infections, the impact will be manifested in stronger US Dollar. Hence, I am rotating out of XLY and into UUP now.


None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only.
 
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