m22au's list of companies to short if shorting wasn't deemed evil

Good thread. How have your original pics performed, do you have the numbers? If not, I can do a performance spreadsheet. It's always good to see how these kinda picks did. What I've noticed is that it's much harder to actually hold onto shorts than it is to pick the right ones :) There's one stock now trading at 16 cents which I was short from about $10, it got down to 1.50 and I was forced to cover due to buy-ins and that "no naked shorting" rule - puts were totally illiquid with huge spreads, so I had no real choice but to buy back at $1.60 above fair value.
 
Yes I agree that it's hard to hold on to short positions.

With all the various government programs designed to halt the decline in equities, it's tough going in the opposite direction.

I did well from June 2008 to now with some of my shorts. FRE and FNM were clearly my two biggest winners.

GM has been good too, but I paid quite a bit in interest to hold that position.

Is the stock you are describing CORS by any chance? I think you mentioned it a number of times previously.

Quote from Cutten:

Good thread. How have your original pics performed, do you have the numbers? If not, I can do a performance spreadsheet. It's always good to see how these kinda picks did. What I've noticed is that it's much harder to actually hold onto shorts than it is to pick the right ones :) There's one stock now trading at 16 cents which I was short from about $10, it got down to 1.50 and I was forced to cover due to buy-ins and that "no naked shorting" rule - puts were totally illiquid with huge spreads, so I had no real choice but to buy back at $1.60 above fair value.
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Advertising / newspapers sounds like an ongoing story

JC Decaux -17% (French)

Johnston Press -15% (UK)

Then there are the US suspects, such as NYT, GCI, WPO, CBS
 
Bloomberg guest:

Possible inverse relationship between:

(1) Govt debt to GDP ratio and
(2) long-term govt bond interest rates

because of government debt issuance crowding out more productive debt issuance by corporates.

Some food for thought.

*****

Separate to that, Hugh Hendry points out that Japan started the 1990s with a govt debt to GDP ratio much lower than the 2009 level of the debt to GDP ratio.

The USA is in a similar situation. If we exclude the unfunded medical / pension liabilities, US Govt debt to GDP is "only" in the 60 to 70% range.

It could get up to 200% before it starts being a problem for the US Dollar.

Obviously the "excluding unfunded liabilities" is a big caveat, but the general idea is that despite the huge treasury issuance, there are other countries in worse financial condition.

eg. Eastern Europe, Russia, UK, PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain)

I note that the GBP continues to be weak this week, despite the multi-day rally in equities, which is usually positive for GBP (versus USD).

Also RBS / LLOY (LYG) / BARC (BCS) look like they are dragging financials lower, despite the gains seen in the first 1 hour of New York trading.

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