http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a746r_1q9OOY&refer=home
Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion (Update1)
By Henry Meyer and Ayesha Daya
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is âeffectively insolvent,â said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last yearâs economic crisis.
âIâve found that credit losses could peak at a level of 3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,â Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. âIf thatâs true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.â
Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted a quarterly loss of $1.79 billion last week, its first since 1991, and received $138 billion in emergency government funds. Citigroup Inc. posted an $8.29 billion fourth-quarter loss, completing its worst year, and plans to split in two under Chief Executive Officer Vikram Panditâs plan to rebuild a capital base eroded by the credit crisis.
âBankruptâ System
âThe problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,â Roubini said. âIn Europe, itâs the same thing.â
Stocks in Europe, Canada and Brazil dropped yesterday on speculation government efforts to shore up the financial industry will fail to stem the deepening global recession. The U.K.âs Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said it expects to post a loss of as much as 28 billion pounds ($41 billion) for 2008 and the government got ready to raise its stake in the lender.
Oil prices will trade between $30 and $40 a barrel all year, Roubini predicted.
âI see commodities falling overall another 15-20 percent,â Roubini said. âThis outlook for commodity prices is beneficial for oil importers, itâs going to imply that economic recovery might occur faster, but from the point of view of oil exporters, this will be very negative.â
Oil has tumbled 77 percent from its July high of $147.27 as the global economy sinks into recession, straining the budgets of crude exporters. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Dubai, the second-largest sheikdom in the United Arab Emirates, have said they will post budget deficits this year. HSBC Holdings Plc said this week it is forecasting an average oil price of $45 a barrel for this year.
Crude oil for February delivery traded as low as $33.18 a barrel, down 9 percent from last weekâs close, in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:23 p.m. Singapore time.
Last Updated: January 20, 2009 04:36 EST
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