m22au's journal

Quote from Daal:

I shorted a bit after the rumors and I'm still holding some shares short. Its amazing how the stock didn't tank more.
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I understand your reasoning, but with only 91.85 million shares outstanding, $0.52 (or alternatively $0.50) could be a bottom that holds for many days / weeks.

There are plenty of Yahoo 'messageboarders' who are already talking about buying the stock with full knowledge of the Bloomberg story, hoping for a bounce. Past experience suggests they'll be buying more tomorrow, with or without a Chapter 11 announcement.

As an example, AAMRQ has a market cap of 164 million, many months after it announced it had filed for Chapter 11.
 
Quote from m22au:

I understand your reasoning, but with only 91.85 million shares outstanding, $0.52 (or alternatively $0.50) could be a bottom that holds for many days / weeks.

There are plenty of Yahoo 'messageboarders' who are already talking about buying the stock with full knowledge of the Bloomberg story, hoping for a bounce. Past experience suggests they'll be buying more tomorrow, with or without a Chapter 11 announcement.

As an example, AAMRQ has a market cap of 164 million, many months after it announced it had filed for Chapter 11.
More...

True. I took a bit of profits here. Still there must be some buyers who think bk wont happen at all
 
Quote from m22au:

I understand your reasoning, but with only 91.85 million shares outstanding, $0.52 (or alternatively $0.50) could be a bottom that holds for many days / weeks.

There are plenty of Yahoo 'messageboarders' who are already talking about buying the stock with full knowledge of the Bloomberg story, hoping for a bounce. Past experience suggests they'll be buying more tomorrow, with or without a Chapter 11 announcement.

As an example, AAMRQ has a market cap of 164 million, many months after it announced it had filed for Chapter 11.
More...

With the stock now trading below $0.50 following the Chapter 11 announcement, I'm wrong about that level holding.

However I'm much more confident being short $1 calls rather than short the stock.
 
With the announcement of PCX seeking Chapter 11 protection, now is a good time to provide an update on other candidates for substantial share price depreciation.

NBG

ATPG
JRCC (although already at 100 million, so not much further downside left)

May take some time:
NIHD NAV RIMM NOK Peugeot (UG in France) RSH
ACI ANR
DMND
 
Quote from m22au:

I understand your reasoning, but with only 91.85 million shares outstanding, $0.52 (or alternatively $0.50) could be a bottom that holds for many days / weeks.

There are plenty of Yahoo 'messageboarders' who are already talking about buying the stock with full knowledge of the Bloomberg story, hoping for a bounce. Past experience suggests they'll be buying more tomorrow, with or without a Chapter 11 announcement.

As an example, AAMRQ has a market cap of 164 million, many months after it announced it had filed for Chapter 11.
More...

Are you short AAMRQ?The are shares available and the 18% annual fee doesn't seem high. I'm not following the bk but I'd be surprised if the equity is not worthless
At the very least it could be a good thing to keep on a watch list of a trading software as any kind of hint the stock will be canceled might still create an opportunity for those who are quick enough to short as much as they can
 
Quote from Daal:

Are you short AAMRQ?The are shares available and the 18% annual fee doesn't seem high. I'm not following the bk but I'd be surprised if the equity is not worthless
At the very least it could be a good thing to keep on a watch list of a trading software as any kind of hint the stock will be canceled might still create an opportunity for those who are quick enough to short as much as they can
More...

Although I think AAMRQ equity will be cancelled eventually, I am not sure AAMRQ any more.

You're right that 18% doesn't seem high, but for me it's not just the cost to borrow, it's the risk of a buyin. I am particularly thinking of a situation where LCC announces a takeover of AAMRQ, and a Reuters (or similar) headline says "5 billion takeover", which results in people buying the stock because they think they might get something.

I have it in my software - I agree that there might be an opportunity in the future when details of the company's fate are announced.
 
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