m22au's journal

Quote from Daal:

Not sure what you mean. I was referring to the return of being long that index
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My mistake.

I would say that being long the basket of stocks whose bonds are pricing in default would be very low.
 
Despite the overall strength in European stocks, especially bank stocks, KBC is down by over 1% at the time of writing, and below yesterday's intraday low.

Compare with
CBK +7%
Socgen +4%

and so on.

KBC is probably the next European bank to get a bailout (or fail).

Debaser: Great call
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-the-greek-election-could-become-a-vote-on-the-euro-2012-5

A very good piece from Art Cashin, quoting another very good piece from Paul Donovan.

Snippets:

"Since then, central banks and governments have stepped in quickly as each new crisis emerged. (Think things like QE; LTRO; the first Greek bailout, etc., etc). As long as the crises remained in the financial arena, they could be softened and postponed (not cured).

"If people begin to believe that Greece will soon exit the Euro and the Eurozone, as we noted last week, it could ignite runs on the banks. First in Greece then quickly Spain and Italy. Would there be a rush to things like capital controls?"
 
Hey m22au - I've been reading your older posts and some of your calls have been very prescient.

Thoughts on airline stocks given their recent run up ?

Anything else strike you as shortable to zero ?
 
RF has repaid its TARP money.

ZION SNV and BPOP are the three remaining biggish banks that have not repaid TARP money.

BPOP is probably the most interesting on the short side.

Moody's reviews for downgrade the ratings of three Puerto Rican banks
10 Apr 2012
http://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...-the-ratings-of-three-Puerto-Rican--PR_242892

Conflict of interest with loans to parties related to CEO
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...llion-has-ceo-family-bad-debts-mortgages.html

and

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...s-not-involved-in-loans-to-board-members.html

As mentioned previously, these banks pay a 5% dividend on the preferred stock held by the Treasury. In late 2013, this dividend rises to 9%.

Quote from m22au:



Previous post here from 2 October 2011

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3317027#post3317027
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Quote from Whistlingleaf:

Hey m22au - I've been reading your older posts and some of your calls have been very prescient.

Thoughts on airline stocks given their recent run up ?

Anything else strike you as shortable to zero ?
More...

Thank you for your kind words Whistlingleaf.

With the airlines, its important to differentiate between different carriers. Notwithstanding today's decline, the US carriers have done very well (versus S&P 500) since mid-March, with strong gains by DAL, UAL, LCC. Clearly the market believes that any P/E multiple contraction and slowish economic growth is not a concern given the windfall of the massive decline in oil prices.

On the other hand, non-US carriers (Air France, GOL, Lufthansa, IAG) have not done as well. Although Europe's problems are well-known, they may continue for many more years, which is negative for AF, LHA and IAG, especially when compared to US carriers and low-cost competitors such as Easyjet and Ryanair.

Shortable to zero? NBG, which I've written about extensively in other threads, is the most obvious candidate.

Even if ND and PASOK are able to win enough seats to form a coalition, NBG still needs to raise about 7 billion EUR in capital. Which is a lot of money compared to its market cap of about 1 billion EUR.

And if Syriza wins the election, then the possibility of the banks being seized by the government, and/or higher rate of deposit outflows, and/or a redenomination to a new currency becomes more likely, which is negative at best, and wipeout at worst for NBG.
 
I was skimming through the comments on this ZH story:

"IrrAUSional Exuberance"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/irrausional-exuberance

and I found these two comments:

www.zerohedge.com/news/irrausional-exuberance#comment-2493086
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/irrausional-exuberance#comment-2493098

which includes a link to this graphic:
http://i975.photobucket.com/albums/ae233/dildq/LICcrossholdings.png

A Google search for this information shows that a poster on an Aussie property messageboard was also interested by the graphic:
www.simplesustainable.com/topic/5089-zh-looks-at-australia/

Although the cross-ownership of the LICs looks dangerous at first glance, the percentages aren't super high.

Still I am bookmarking this just in case there is a substantial decline in Aussie property prices.
 
Quote from m22au:

RF has repaid its TARP money.

ZION SNV and BPOP are the three remaining biggish banks that have not repaid TARP money.

BPOP is probably the most interesting on the short side.
More...

TARP overhang thread
www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=148766

BPOP

20 April 2012
Earnings conference call
http://seekingalpha.com/article/515...sses-q1-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript
"We do not have a specific repayment plan yet in place"

13 June 2012
Investor presentation

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/763901/000119312512268914/0001193125-12-268914-index.htm

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/763901
/000119312512268914/d364899dex991.htm
 
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