Luck vs Trading

Forex is a business of skills, you need to learn, practice, develop, implement and analyze the market before entering a trade.. If you think of luck, then it is better to go to a casino and search for a living.. Here in fore, it is real business of intelligent people.. .If you do not want to learn, it is your fault if you experience severe damage to your account and if you learn, you will see the real profit in forex trading..
 
Quote from colonial dr:

I would also love to hear anybody who has ideas about how to quantify luck in trading.
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80% of trading is timing, 10% is ideas the other 10% is luck. 100% of it is being able to control your emotions. very few people can do all of that, let alone do it well.
 
Statical edges shift over time. What works well today will likely have lost some of its edge in a year. If there is any "luck" involved, it's the ability to sense what's shifting and making adjustments.

BTW - I don't know a single successful trader who considers "luck" a factor in their success. Working 12 hours/day for years, however, definitely can shift the "luck" in your favor.

PS - while "money management" is important its never a substitute for a statistical edge.
 
tepper, jiang, griffin, simons, among others all believe that 'luck' plays a role in winning trades... while nobody here would discredit their own research and hours of effort to completely ignore that some of aspect of this is pure luck would but ridiculous.
 
I've always considered myself the luckiest trader around. Lucky because I was at the right place at the right time to exploit the 80s and 90s in equity funds and then even luckier to be able to exploit the bond mania that followed. Then again, luck only comes to those who take action.
 
Quote from syntrader:

First, read this, its long but worth it.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/11/luck-and-skill-untangled-qa-with-michael-mauboussin/

Then, listen to this to understand the difference it more on a personal level
http://traderkingdom.com/trading-ps...1-the-missing-piece-to-the-trading-puzzle-you
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Luck won't get you too far in trading, maybe one or two trades and that is all except if you are very lucky and you do 10 but that is max. So forget about these professors and psychologists and concentrate on the trade. If you make 500 trades for the year and a 30% return, do not let any of these idiots scare you with the luck bogey. They are just like the priests who scare people with the hell thing. Most professors can only keep their jobs if they scare society enough to keep paying them.
 
I don’t consider forex as a matter of luck. You need to have proper skills to trade in the market. I think experience, strategy and knowledge are the most important qualities in trading. So if you don’t have the skills you will surely lose, because luck doesn’t exist for a long time, especially in forex.
 
Quote from colonial dr:

Myself and others had a discussion about traders, both new and old, confusing nice equity curves as real trading when it is just luck.

A hundred descretionary trades can easily be luck- imo. Especially when draw downs between trades.

Old trades who have lost their skill or edge can also think it is good that they are at least holding together. This is luck too.

Have you ever thought you had an edge or skill, but found out over the longer term that it was just luck that proved to be a false theory?

I would also love to hear anybody who has ideas about how to quantify luck in trading.
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Col;
you may want to research how the prop/casualty insure business deals with risk, not really any '' luck' 'involved:cool:

Best understanding of ''luck'' in trading came thru old timer John Henry-What you call luck i call a'' small sample'' Thats wisdom. Dont bother telling me how well he did not do a year or 2,LOL:D
 
Lucky during a trading boy, that means gambling. Why do people like to treat Forex like a casino. This is absolutely different. I believe there is skill needed in trading. Practicing with demo account and learning with e-books and videos are necessary before we jump into a real trading.
 
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