Luck vs Trading

Quote from jnbadger:

Sounds like a difference of opinion as to the definition of "luck".

I don't think anything you just described has anything to do with luck.

Granted, you need to continuously put yourself in a position to be lucky, but watching a movie and missing a trade has nothing to do with being unlucky. That's just a lack of effort.
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I guess you've never heard the adage: "luck favors the prepared."
 
A lot of truth to this.

Quote from Bry:


However, the best traders are probably the luckiest too. Their subconscious minds prod them to get into a trade at just the right time. Or their hard work, watching the market for hours and hours until they feel the timing is right to get in makes them luckier than the lazy trader who is watching a movie instead.
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Hey
I totally agree that there is a bit of luck involved whenever we do trading or any other task but the interferance is limited if we use our skills at the best we could achive well anyway...
Forex-metal
 
moved to another level and see market as multidimensional. price action is one dimension only. I include now news, sentiment and fundamentals, one dimension each. PA is last one to wory about. However, I still have rule to papertrade after 3 risks down from high account point, just in case. [/B]
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Useful strategy and info... Thank you
 
The longer I play the luckier I get, and the more time my counterparties have to make mistakes that make me look even luckier. I must be the luckiest man on Earth.
 
well as a human being i truly believe that luck is involved in every task but that does nt mean that one must totally rely on luck, we must make our best efforts with complete presence of mind to achieve the best possible in trading.
 
luck has always been an inevitable part of a persons life. be it trading or real life luck is always involved but what we can do is use our wits to the fullest and make the best use of opportunities avail.
forex-metal
 
Quote from colonial dr:

Myself and others had a discussion about traders, both new and old, confusing nice equity curves as real trading when it is just luck.

A hundred descretionary trades can easily be luck- imo. Especially when draw downs between trades.

Old trades who have lost their skill or edge can also think it is good that they are at least holding together. This is luck too.

Have you ever thought you had an edge or skill, but found out over the longer term that it was just luck that proved to be a false theory?

I would also love to hear anybody who has ideas about how to quantify luck in trading.
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First, read this, its long but worth it.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/11/luck-and-skill-untangled-qa-with-michael-mauboussin/

Then, listen to this to understand the difference it more on a personal level
http://traderkingdom.com/trading-ps...1-the-missing-piece-to-the-trading-puzzle-you
 
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