Lowry 90% down day update
- Thread starter Runningbear
- Start date
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&siteid=mktw
"Although the July decline did not contain any 90 percent downside days, it did push stocks down to the most deeply oversold conditions seen since September '01 or beyond," Desmond said Monday morning. "As a result, we were prepared for a snap-back rally lasting at least several weeks. But then a 90 percent upside day was registered on July 29."
That rally, in which the Dow rose 447 points and the NYSE Composite Index (NYA: news, chart, profile) gained 5.1 percent, featured more than 90 percent of all NYSE trading activity as positive. The one-day rally also put more than 90 percent of all price activity in the plus column. Such positive days usually indicate tremendous demand for stocks by investors.
Not this time, Desmond says.
Desmond, president of Lowry's Reports, says bear-market bottoms almost always are accompanied first by frantic selling, the kind that puts 90 percent or more of all NYSE volume and points gained/lost in the red. Periods of frantic buying - the kind seen by bargain-craving investors -- must follow the devastation before stocks can truly be declared a winning proposition for new investors.
Today's Data
Volume is cooperating:
89% for NYSE
90% for Nasdaq
dgabriel, how do you calculate the up/down points? Thanks.
"Although the July decline did not contain any 90 percent downside days, it did push stocks down to the most deeply oversold conditions seen since September '01 or beyond," Desmond said Monday morning. "As a result, we were prepared for a snap-back rally lasting at least several weeks. But then a 90 percent upside day was registered on July 29."
That rally, in which the Dow rose 447 points and the NYSE Composite Index (NYA: news, chart, profile) gained 5.1 percent, featured more than 90 percent of all NYSE trading activity as positive. The one-day rally also put more than 90 percent of all price activity in the plus column. Such positive days usually indicate tremendous demand for stocks by investors.
Not this time, Desmond says.
Desmond, president of Lowry's Reports, says bear-market bottoms almost always are accompanied first by frantic selling, the kind that puts 90 percent or more of all NYSE volume and points gained/lost in the red. Periods of frantic buying - the kind seen by bargain-craving investors -- must follow the devastation before stocks can truly be declared a winning proposition for new investors.
Today's Data
Volume is cooperating:
89% for NYSE
90% for Nasdaq
dgabriel, how do you calculate the up/down points? Thanks.
)ok, so what would you do if we got a 90% up day ? How do you trade with this information ?
The points and volume are calculated the same:
Points (or volume) up + points (or volume) down = total
up/total = % up.
down/total = % down
Ignore issues that were unchanged for the day in price.
This is Lowrys formula.
Points down should be treated as an absolute value, no minus sign in the equation.
Points (or volume) up + points (or volume) down = total
up/total = % up.
down/total = % down
Ignore issues that were unchanged for the day in price.
This is Lowrys formula.
Points down should be treated as an absolute value, no minus sign in the equation.