Lowry 90% down day update

Runningbear · Jul 2, 2002

For anyone who is interested, cbs has a related article on this topic today

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={4BE83CBE-4010-4EBC-94EE-E069EA11C1FF}&siteid=mktw

Runningbear

Pound · Jul 2, 2002

I wonder now that everyone is in search of 'the anatomy of a bottom' what will the new market bring? Maybe another roaring bull market back up to the 5000 level? No one would believe it, huh?

_____Pound

dgabriel · Jul 2, 2002

I calculated the Lowry %s for the SP500 and today it is as follows:

Points down: 96.49%
Volume Down: 89.72%

Lowry runs their calculations on the NYSE stocks.

I am having some trouble obtaining data on just NYSE stocks, so I am going to run a calculation on the Russell 3000 and will post later.

dgabriel · Jul 2, 2002

Russell 3000 excluding Worldcom's 800million:

89% down volume
94% down points

chasinfla · Jul 2, 2002

Thanks for this post. I've been wondering about this. Gabriel, can you tell me how you calculate the values? Also, I think a bottom must be confirmed by all the majors...

chasinfla · Jul 2, 2002

According to Prechter, a true bottom hasn't occured until noone wants to have anything to do with stocks (according to popular sentiment).

Of course, there can be bounces great and small absent the utterly dismal sentiment.

trdrmac · Jul 2, 2002

Originally posted by chasinfla
According to Prechter, a true bottom hasn't occurred until noone wants to have anything to do with stocks (according to popular sentiment).

Count me in for not wanting anything to do with stocks. I always get too negative right before bounces. At least we have a pre holiday day which is usually good for a bounce.

Bob111 · Jul 2, 2002

-------According to Prechter, a true bottom hasn't occured until noone wants to have anything to do with stocks (according to popular sentiment).

------i agree with this definition.
last two days of extreme selloff can be sign of MAYBE short term bottom, but i think, we did not see capitulation yet.
VIX too low and public still buying.....look at XLNX,CHKP))))))) up today))

dgabriel · Jul 2, 2002

A 90% down day does not mean the market is out of the woods.

http://www.lowrysreports.com/samples/90.pdf

Chas, I ran my own calculations with my database.

Jim Bartley · Jul 2, 2002

Originally posted by Pound
I wonder now that everyone is in search of 'the anatomy of a bottom' what will the new market bring? Maybe another roaring bull market back up to the 5000 level? No one would believe it, huh?

_____Pound

I wish I could remeber where I read this, but it goes something like (paraphrasing) "the market will do whatever it has to, to take the most money from the most people"