Losing my edge

Personally, I don't think risk management can turn a losing method into a winning method, like the old saying: Can't turn a pig's..... I was eager to see if @Buy1Sell2 could show us how instead of just preaching to us.

Actually I tried using a random number generator to generate stock prices and "traded" using "stop loss" and "trialing stop", no cigar. Not sure if the codes were error free though.
%%
It cant;
but if its 95% important/ I would not argue the point= not much anyway/LOL
Since the markets are not random, that's another error right there/LOL
BUT, what you call ''random'' if you used qqq/daily charts, you could find some profits/don't know about cigs......
SQQQ/qqq on a 5 minute chart ??
Almost certain too many errors/cigar smoke. And I seldom trade that sqqq on any time frame...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….HE has deep drawdowns on es;
me too/tqqq somertimes.
 
Personally, I don't think risk management can turn a losing method into a winning method
%%
It cant;

Guys, consider this quote from @Tradex : (@ironchef , you'd probably have more success if you vary your stop action [initial placement, and tightening] similar-to/exactly like Basso did. Of course, this will add more complexity to your code.)

Speaking of randomness (and this is totally baffling) Tom Basso demonstrated that it is possible to make money with totally random entry points!

I am quoting from the book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" (by Van K. Tharp):

"Tom Basso designed a simple, random-entry trading system … We determined the volatility of the market by a 10-day exponential moving average of the average true range.

Our initial stop was three times that volatility reading.

Once entry occurred
by a coin flip, the same three-times-volatility stop was trailed from the close. However, the stop could only move in our favor. Thus, the stop moved closer whenever the markets moved in our favor or whenever volatility shrank. We also used a 1% risk model for our position-sizing system. …

We ran it on 10 markets. And it was always, in each market, either long or short depending upon
a coin flip. … It made money 100% of the time when a simple 1% risk money management system was added. … The system had a (trade success) reliability of 38%, which is about average for a trend-following system."

Here's one article about this: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rev...nt-your-entry-forex-trading-part-1-2016-11-05

I've found, that when people say they "tested" moving average crossovers, and conclude that "they don't work." They usually didn't test them with out-of-the-box thinking. They didn't test them with a dynamically varying period of the moving averages based upon recent price-action/volatility.

People say Stop-and-Reverse systems don't work. They can if your stop is dynamic and intelligent. And ... out-of-the-box thinking is required.

Likewise, Basso found that risk management can indeed make a profitable system, with some markets.

In sum, risk management can be an edge--in and of itself, but is certainly not the only edge, and;

Basso took a losing strategy--random entries--and made it profitable with just risk management.
 
I was like you. In my first month I did so good. First week of the second month, I was doing great too. 5th day of my second month my losing streak started. I lost all of my profit in 8 days in continuous losing streak plus I lost $400 from my main fund. I changed my broker to a lower fee broker (From Questrade to IBKR and saved about $450 monthly fees). I reduced my share sizes, and I am back to game again with knowing how this could be serious and stressful with a real example I had. It would be devastating for me if I lost from my main fund at first. Thank god, I lost from my profits so it become easier to come back mentally. Go slower, and make realistic targets for weekly. I was making about $500 a day average in last week of first month and in my first week of the second month but I saw the harsh reality. Now, I reduced my weekly target and its so good to win by learning with smaller amounts. Step by step... Continue learning (I give easily my 10 hours to this everyday for 3 months now (I had also full preparation month with an demo account before starting) and I do love it)Don't try day trading. Start with swing trading. Its best way to go for starters. I got no much experience comparing with most of people here but I am sure they would tell you go for swing trading or long term holding too).Good luck to you.
 
Last edited:
Likewise, Basso found that risk management can indeed make a profitable system, with some markets.


Basso took a losing strategy--random entries--and made it profitable with just risk management.
I tested the following: Buy SPY at open, sell at close, everyday. After 25 years I was net profitable.

I am going to try: On one random day every week, buy at open, sell at close and see if that is net profitable. If so, I can start a web based educational service, call out trades, have a huge following. :D
 
Guys, consider this quote from @Tradex : (@ironchef , you'd probably have more success if you vary your stop action [initial placement, and tightening] similar-to/exactly like Basso did. Of course, this will add more complexity to your code.)



Here's one article about this: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rev...nt-your-entry-forex-trading-part-1-2016-11-05

I've found, that when people say they "tested" moving average crossovers, and conclude that "they don't work." They usually didn't test them with out-of-the-box thinking. They didn't test them with a dynamically varying period of the moving averages based upon recent price-action/volatility.

People say Stop-and-Reverse systems don't work. They can if your stop is dynamic and intelligent. And ... out-of-the-box thinking is required.

Likewise, Basso found that risk management can indeed make a profitable system, with some markets.

In sum, risk management can be an edge--in and of itself, but is certainly not the only edge, and;

Basso took a losing strategy--random entries--and made it profitable with just risk management.
%%
Thanks;
not really that simple/if it was, he would only told jack schwager only that in Basso helpful interview.
In other words= its like saying,to drive a car consistently/ step on the gas . a grain of truth in anything.....................................................................................IF you like simple stuff + I do to; most of the money made/ billions in stocks/mutual funds .is simply buying every month-that's it......................................................................................................
 
Back
Top