Looks like the GOP Senate races are not going well
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
Meh, you are working pretty hard for your extra potato. I will give ya that Biden is off his lows but you don't get the potato until you take the house.
Just by coincidence, Biden, Bush, Clinton and Trump were all at 41 approval ratings in August of their first terms and Biden is at 44- no big deal.
BUT looking at it differently Reagan, lost 26 seats, Bush lost 5, Obama lost 52 clinton lost 63, and Trump lost 40. And let's face it Biden is not even in the same league or on the same planet with the others.
As I have said before, as sort of an in-the-weeds comment, I think the dems loss will be big enough to tip the balance but maybe not major because the dem herd has already been trimmed a bit even when Joe came in. They lost 13 seats just in 2020 so that kind of goes with Joe's poor favorability and low coat-tail factor right from the get-go. And Obama had off the charts popularity but could not move the needle one iota in regard to congressional elections.
Or maybe you are trying to get your potato in regard to Joe's approval rating and his electability in 2020. Heh. Please. Spare us. That's way down the road and he is already a dead man walking.
Never a good sign when none of the dems want Biden out campaigning with them. Nope, their ear is to close to the ground.
Joe is underwater at a clinical level on the right track-wrong track poll. If he and the dems can move that- not by some small amount but by a major amount- then your extra potato will be at least a possibility. Meanwhile, get going.
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So, let’s be clear on one thing: The republicans are supposed to take the senate too. You have set the bar low as if the House is the defining point on whether Biden is doing well or not but the House is a layup for republicans because it is gerrymandered.
This senate cycle is actually a favorable one for republicans but Trump pushed in his acolytes of the big lie and now there is some doubt. And to be fair I still expect republicans to take the senate on the basis that the map is favorable to republicans.
As to right track wrong track being your gauge of all things there are plenty of Biden supporters that are not happy with SCOTUS pushing that number up.
I don't exactly get where you are headed with your word salad and that data that I responded to in that tweet. I thought it might be in regard to his impact on the House so I said some things there. But no. Then you bring up the Senate. Okay. Maybe next time you announce that you have won more potatoes start by saying why and we will go from there. After you said in you post, "let's be clear." Yeh that might help. You be clear.
In regard to the house, it is as I said. In regard to the Senate, it is up for grabs. PA, Georgia, Arizona, etc are up for grabs. When you say. "The republicans are supposed to take the Senate too, " identify who is saying that. Lots of people are saying it aspirationally, but even the Senate Minority Leader says it is iffy based on candidates. And things that might have been said earlier have changed based on primaries that have happened and requires recalibrated thinking. In some states, republicans have losers running now but they are running against dem losers so it is unclear.
Biden's favorability is of no interest to me. Or Kamala's either. They are both duds and have no future in 2024. I don't give a fig about small movements up or down. And his problems are with the dems so I dont have to rag on him just to make sure that there is resistance to his running - the dems will do all the ragging. You can get orgasmic over some wiggle in the data about either of them but it does nothing for me- not for the dems either apparently.
Find a candidate. Don't update us on how Joe is doing. No one- especially the dems- is/are interested in Joe other than how to get rid of him.
Things are changing for Biden. He is coming off of his lows. You may not care but it does matter especially going into an election. Still the house gerrymandered and you’re misreading right track/wrong track. A lot of that is outrage at SCOTUS.
What’s interesting is you think the senate is insulated from Joe Biden’s approval numbers but not the House.
I get you don’t need an explainer but I like word salads and completeness. The senate runs in cycles with about a third of seats up for election every two years. As such some cycles will be favorable to democrats and some to republicans. The map of this cycle actually favors republicans based on the states voting for senators this year. You can see this on things like cook or 538. If you want to do your own analysis you can head over to real clear elections.
So why is the senate and house disconnecting in a favorable senate cycle? Obviously, MAGA candidates won some key primaries. So what can we glean from this? Biden has strength against MAGA as a brand. If you got the Trump brand “Brandon” is still strong regardless of right track wrong track or whatever else you’re looking at.
I get that that you’re leaning on Mitch McConnell’s statement AFTER the primaries. But if you look back to what was being discussed prior to the primaries Republicans were in fact favored to take the senate because of the favorable cycle for them.
Yes. after the primaries. Your need to give me a civics lesson on the cycle of Senate elections, notwithstanding, it makes a difference in evenly divided chambers- ie. the Senate for me - to see who the actual candidates are going to be. We have had the primaries, and the republican (and the dem too) candidates are pretty shaky in some of the key states. All of your civics stuff and need to be right about various non-critical points as is your style, is now superseded by the performance of actual candidates in those key states. Yes, Biden this and Biden that in regard to woulda, shoulda in the senate races but we are past the primaries now and the polling does not show the easy path for the Republicans just because your election cycle analysis says it should be.
Mind you that we are hung up here where you usually get hung up. That is to say you are a binary thinker. I am not saying that the Republicans will not gain the Senate, only that it is a toss up. That of course is too nuanced for a binary thinker. Later, after the elections, you will come back and tell me that I was wrong if the Republicans win- because you never understood my point in the first place. Usual T gotta T.
Let's be honest, an actual Bond villain would have a better shot of beating Fetterman.
Realistically, Oz's taking shots at Fetterman's health does not have a good look to it. As a novice campaigner, he has not learned the fine political art of having others do your dirty work. A necessity in politics.
Also realistically, Fetterman's refusal to agree to show up for debates does not help. Probably his lead is big enough so that he can get away with it. That seems to be the plan anyway.
All of this to say right track/wrong track mysteriously does not apply to the senate because it is not gerrymandered. When you leave the 54/46 Republican districts republicans aren’t actually doing well.
I hear you though if you can’t compute there’s a problem on the ground right now for republicans then it must be “binary.” Sort of your go to when your brain starts tweaking. But maybe and just maybe you are the one missing the point. Then again you never miss this stuff right… President Warren?
I honestly don't know what the hell you are smoking.
A few posts above and another before, I pointed out the iffiness of Republicans taking the Senate, to which you tweaked me by saying:
"This senate cycle is actually a favorable one for republicans but Trump pushed in his acolytes of the big lie and now there is some doubt. And to be fair I still expect republicans to take the senate on the basis that the map is favorable to republicans."
Now, above, you take a shot at me for allegedly not being able to compute that Republicans have a problem. Man, you are one confused mofo.
Look, why don't you just stay with your specialty, which is explaining to us peasants that inflation is just transitory. Or I guess you revised that to "it is transitory after the first four years" or something.