long term position trading -primarily etf's-
- Thread starter sowterdad
- Start date
On the other side of the conservative SPLV- back into Baba- 111.60 with a stop under 107
reportedly a bond issued- stock has started to move higher from it's recent decline-meets my "preferred entry" at this time-Risk is approx 3% initially on this trade
BABA CHART-
2 HR CHART- NICE SMOOTH PRICE ACTION UP, MINOR CONSOLIDATIONS, A BREAK OF SUPPORT AND A SMALL DECLINE.
I view this trade as a pullback in the uptrend- and a possible good opportunity for another entry- It could be this does not work out, decline may continue- Stop is under the 107-
chart illustrates PSAR and what occurs coming off of consolidations etc. I do not use PSAR literally- It needs to be viewed as a confirmation - occasionally will keep one from entering on a decline too early-
Today's entry has the expectation that the preceding price pause may have signaled a low in the decline, and the uptrend may get some momentum- Only time will tell.
2 HR CHART- NICE SMOOTH PRICE ACTION UP, MINOR CONSOLIDATIONS, A BREAK OF SUPPORT AND A SMALL DECLINE.
I view this trade as a pullback in the uptrend- and a possible good opportunity for another entry- It could be this does not work out, decline may continue- Stop is under the 107-
chart illustrates PSAR and what occurs coming off of consolidations etc. I do not use PSAR literally- It needs to be viewed as a confirmation - occasionally will keep one from entering on a decline too early-
Today's entry has the expectation that the preceding price pause may have signaled a low in the decline, and the uptrend may get some momentum- Only time will tell.
I wouldn't go long yet! If there is anything you can do here, is to wait and short this higher unless there is a confirmation of the resurgence of the up trend.
Thanks for the Input and caution Momo. This could be exactly why I do not need to be looking at the market in real time with "free Cash " LOL!
I typically do not trade in individual stocks- Too much Risk - I also cannot short individual stocks because all of my trading is done within IRA or Roth accounts and prohibited- but i can "short" via inverse ETF's and have done so on occaision..
"Waiting for the resurgence of the uptrend" is indeed the prudent approach in going long- and I agree. The cost of trying to jump in prematurely comes at a cost of being wrong more often.
My focus in taking an entry is not necessarily waiting for the daily chart to make the turn though- I am trying to capture a bit of an earlier entry by using the 2 hr chart vs the daily- but i keep the daily in mind-as the trend in force at the time. I also try to have a sense of what the overall market is doing- since most trades move With the larger tide. I do prefer to see a completed upturn cross on the faster chart- and that often only comes after some basing on a decline- Typically not a V reversal- It looked compelling in real time .....
Thanks again for the input- Stop is in place and we'll see where this leads! SD
A considerable amount of my recent 'success' is attributable to the trending bull market. A Bull market forgives a bad approach- carries it along with it higher-
CURE is presently near an all time high- and notice the momentum increase as shown in the angle and the widening gap of the ema's. Price should either bust out higher from here- or- as typically- revert to the mean and go lower.
I debated about using 120 as the final stop- but instead went with 117.00- the low of the range- price has recently broke higher- but is now dropping back into the channel-
in the prior runs- a break higher above the range that turns and drops lower- often indicates a start of a greater decline.
CURE is presently near an all time high- and notice the momentum increase as shown in the angle and the widening gap of the ema's. Price should either bust out higher from here- or- as typically- revert to the mean and go lower.
I debated about using 120 as the final stop- but instead went with 117.00- the low of the range- price has recently broke higher- but is now dropping back into the channel-
in the prior runs- a break higher above the range that turns and drops lower- often indicates a start of a greater decline.
This one I would take it the same way as you, good stop, never be cheap!
I Also agree . You have to allow the trade room to run to get the opportunity for it to go higher- A drop of momentum, a minor pullback, or sideways consolidation is a normal event- prior to starting this thread, I've made an effort to not react as i did in the past- despite minor fluctuations- Can't listen to the doomsayers- and get a Bias that the shoe is about to drop- Eventually, they be right-
I think a lot of people- self included- saw what occurred to their accounts in 2008-09 and are more anxious and focused to not feel that 'pain' and that tends to give one a very short horizon to be 'exposed'-
lock in gains early- before the market takes them away again may be in one's psyche-
Just started reading "Markets Never Forget (But People Do) -by ken Fisher How we choose to fit select historic information into our beliefs and try to apply that to the present day-Contributes to Why most investors panic early, get out - back in near a top, and fail to net what the market actually gives- I know I am personally Risk averse- particularly with Investments- and tend to react defensively- limiting exposure to downside Risk also limits upside growth-
Ideally, this is where this thread eventually goes-How TA can be best used in a trading situation to Limit Risk- and achieve growth- and extend that to a higher time frame chart- (Weekly perhaps) for position trading- It will take some time to get there though-
Thanks for your input!
BABA CHART-
qUICK FOLLOW UP- BABA price action at the close 11.21 was not inspiring- also considering the mkts pushed onto new highs in most sectors.
This was a partial and spec entry- so it's impact when stopped out will not be too painful-
The more one thinks a faster approach is better, the more often one has to take a loss- and a sharp reversal
without much basing is that high risk set up- shows a gamble on my part- more so than a sound calculated entry. One has to combine elements of taking greater Risk for larger gains- and applying a more solid & conservative approach- I think I have a mix of some conservative investments as my Core, and some $$$ allowed to take some greater Risks. But -it was indeed an impulsive trade-
So, In taking the trade I took a typical stop below the swing low- and price moved higher above the low of my entry day- I could simply move the stop just below of my entry day- That would reduce the 4% intially risked on the trade -port risk was under .05%. on this position if my calcs are correct.
as an experiment - I'm going to follw this trade with psar stops based on a very fast 15 minute Renko chart-. My entry was 'proper' based on this fast renko- and I will start off with this stop based on volatility.
I will post a 2nd chart of a 2 hour renko -which does not support my entry choice on that time frame-
Just another interesting way to consider price- and trend- for those of us PA deficient.
AS a follow up to CURE - frame 1 initial start-
My assessment was that my simple MA entry and stop-loss would have been an absolute failure in that particular wide volatility-
Looking at Frame 2- daily chart- There would have been 4 trades generated- 1 losing trade- 2 small gains- and a 4th trade that would have stayed in the trend for 6 months + for a 24% gain +/- -
The structure behind this simplistic method -relies on reacting to price in relation to the smoothing mechanism- moving averages- and trying to build on some repeatable 'rules' that one could follow-
Is the simplist method the best? Paraphrase Einstein- make something as simple as it can be- but not less.... Perhaps an inaccurate recollection- but the meaning is that when one tries to add layers of complexity- one may not achieve the end result with all those other variables in play-
I tend to favor viewing trades with a faster chart- 2 hour - If I viewed Frame 2 on the faster chart- I would have had multiple exits and reentrys. Something worth considering.....as one takes trades and smaller gains- Why did one exit early? Was it based on some arbitrary 'Target' that is suggested as a peak by wave counts or pivot % gains? Was it based on some arbitrary break down below a moving average as a reason to consider raising a stop? What about the trend line- ?
All of the above have moments of validity, and periods of spot-on accuracy- It is up to the individual to determine what method actually fits their trading style and approach.
Regardless of one's concept- and approach to trading- The goal should be to identify an approach that is replicable across different platforms- and then identify those things that may be qualifiers- to take smaller tactical trades- or to take a chance and go in large (strongly oversold)
I consider having Moving Averages on my chart essential - It simplifies my assessment of trend-
Dropping down into a faster time frame for an introspective look is a skill I am trying to develop- I think it also can enhance one's tactical skills - but one has to be able to process the information from different time frames - possibly conflicting- and this likely takes an extended period of actual screen time to get to that level intuitively.
Is the moving average entry criteria valid across time frames? I think it has to be used in context with an understanding of trading With the primary trend- or knowing where you are in relation to that trend.....
It's a good starting point IMO.....
Phase 2 chart
My assessment was that my simple MA entry and stop-loss would have been an absolute failure in that particular wide volatility-
Looking at Frame 2- daily chart- There would have been 4 trades generated- 1 losing trade- 2 small gains- and a 4th trade that would have stayed in the trend for 6 months + for a 24% gain +/- -
The structure behind this simplistic method -relies on reacting to price in relation to the smoothing mechanism- moving averages- and trying to build on some repeatable 'rules' that one could follow-
Is the simplist method the best? Paraphrase Einstein- make something as simple as it can be- but not less.... Perhaps an inaccurate recollection- but the meaning is that when one tries to add layers of complexity- one may not achieve the end result with all those other variables in play-
I tend to favor viewing trades with a faster chart- 2 hour - If I viewed Frame 2 on the faster chart- I would have had multiple exits and reentrys. Something worth considering.....as one takes trades and smaller gains- Why did one exit early? Was it based on some arbitrary 'Target' that is suggested as a peak by wave counts or pivot % gains? Was it based on some arbitrary break down below a moving average as a reason to consider raising a stop? What about the trend line- ?
All of the above have moments of validity, and periods of spot-on accuracy- It is up to the individual to determine what method actually fits their trading style and approach.
Regardless of one's concept- and approach to trading- The goal should be to identify an approach that is replicable across different platforms- and then identify those things that may be qualifiers- to take smaller tactical trades- or to take a chance and go in large (strongly oversold)
I consider having Moving Averages on my chart essential - It simplifies my assessment of trend-
Dropping down into a faster time frame for an introspective look is a skill I am trying to develop- I think it also can enhance one's tactical skills - but one has to be able to process the information from different time frames - possibly conflicting- and this likely takes an extended period of actual screen time to get to that level intuitively.
Is the moving average entry criteria valid across time frames? I think it has to be used in context with an understanding of trading With the primary trend- or knowing where you are in relation to that trend.....
It's a good starting point IMO.....
Phase 2 chart