Long Oil into Opec Meeting - Your take

[cunparis]

Quote from spanish89:

Eeekkk

Um im sorry if you got caughtout by my calls mate.


I put order to buy me in at 63.86, stoploss is gna be at 59.52, as there is EXTREMELY strong support at levels above that + i now thinking dollar is gna start weaking again.


And so i also bought aud.usd at 6168, stoploss at 6093, and 1st target at 6619.


And gna try looking for a nice low opening to buy some corn also.

No worries. I entered extended from support, it was a risk. I was at work so decisions had to be made in seconds. (I'm in an openspace and everyone can see my screen). Today I'm home thank god!

Your stop at 59 is quite far for me. I'm in at 64.18 and stop at 64.24 (low of 11:30 bar - using 15 min bars). if I get stopped out Ill look to re-enter at 63. I'll have a look for the supports between 59 & 63.

For your AUD, isn't that going down? I was looking for a long but gave up with it down 4.5%. Are you trading that forex? I only do currencies in futures, too scared of forex.

I'll look at Corn. I just covered a short wheat trade and I'm long soy meal.

Also gold is trying to stay above support from it's prior low a few months ago around 735. I just went long cause it ran up but the market came back down and now gold is stalling. If crude rallies then gold could follow.

 

[spanish89]

I took 73pips from aud/usd for the close today, 158ticks for oil, so £389 for the day.

£916 tax free profit for the week.


I know to lots people that doesnt sound much, but im trading from an account of barely £8,000, and that is ALL the money i have in the world (£169 in my bank)!! :eek:

So if i lose money or even just fail to earn over £500 profit each week, i would lose my flat and endup homeless living on the streets again!!


I have a target for oil of 67.92, aud/usd of 0.6619.
So that will be £991 profit. And im hoping that those levels can be hit by monday, with about 66% chance that they can be.


And no dont trade currencies of fxs normally, only crude oil futures. lol

But ive been watching the dollar and its now just gotten fuking ridiculous this strengthening!!!

USA is crashing worse than everyone else, and yet its fx pair is doing best!!
:eek:
And the only people who made money of it by buyng it are gamblers and chaser traders, and that pises me off!!



So im hoping now we will get pullback, and they will all get caughtout!

 

[spanish89]

Btw if you trade oil drop by my journal if you like mate..

Me and afew other trades are there traidng oil + now fxs, and are regularly hitting a few hundred ticks profit per day, each day, week after week now..

And so the more people that also start cashing in the better, and then each night we can all celebrate together!



my journal called; 5% - 10% profit per day traidng.

 

[new$]

Forget charts, support levels, and OPEC

OIL WILL GO UP AFTER THE ELECTION!

 

[spanish89]

Quote from new$:

Forget charts, support levels, and OPEC

OIL WILL GO UP AFTER THE ELECTION!

LOL

How you know that the day he the new president comes in all the traders who trade oil will all stop their selling and all start to buy oil in unison, and therefore move the market up not down??




And how much of your own cash you risking on your oil long??

 

[cunparis]

USA is crashing worse than everyone else, and yet its fx pair is doing best!!
:eek:
And the only people who made money of it by buyng it are gamblers and chaser traders, and that pises me off!!

So im hoping now we will get pullback, and they will all get caughtout! [/B]

This isn't true at all. I actually shorted the dollar index around 83, thinking it would be resistance. When it broke through, I reversed and went long thinking 83 would hold as support. This is 1 DX contract. I lost $1k on the short, and the next day was up like $200. And then DX took off like a rocket! Now the trade is up over $3k. It wasn't gambling at all, it was very risk aware in fact.

Since then I've been looking for a pt to add on to my DX trade but I cannot find a low risk way to do so!

However, I did see a low risk entry to short the euro and I did that. That trade has made over twice the DX trade.

As soon as I see a pullback in the DX or any other currency I will add to my position.

One thing interesting is the Euro is really following the S&P. so one has to be careful here. The S&P is showing signs of bottoming, but the Euro is not. So who's leading? I do not know but if I see a sign in one then I'm looking for a reversal in the other as well.

I am anticipating the S&P bottoming out on Monday if it hasn't already, and the Euro pulling back up and the Dollar pulling back down. But I do not think the currency pullbacks will be successful. fed rate in europe is 3.75 and it must come down. That's why people are fleeing the euro.

Anyway, I should talk about oil as to not anger the OP. hehe..

I see a strong correlation between oil & the S&P as well. I was long yesterday but when oil was hitting up against resistance around 65 I went short. I think the us markets might have one more chance to take out the lows and that would probably be Monday, the last Monday in October. If they do crude will follow, and once the bottom is in for the indexes and they move up crude should follow. So I rest short over the weekend with a stop at 65.60.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from cunparis:

This isn't true at all. I actually shorted the dollar index around 83, thinking it would be resistance. When it broke through, I reversed and went long thinking 83 would hold as support. This is 1 DX contract. I lost $1k on the short, and the next day was up like $200. And then DX took off like a rocket! Now the trade is up over $3k. It wasn't gambling at all, it was very risk aware in fact.

Since then I've been looking for a pt to add on to my DX trade but I cannot find a low risk way to do so!

However, I did see a low risk entry to short the euro and I did that. That trade has made over twice the DX trade.

As soon as I see a pullback in the DX or any other currency I will add to my position.

One thing interesting is the Euro is really following the S&P. so one has to be careful here. The S&P is showing signs of bottoming, but the Euro is not. So who's leading? I do not know but if I see a sign in one then I'm looking for a reversal in the other as well.

I am anticipating the S&P bottoming out on Monday if it hasn't already, and the Euro pulling back up and the Dollar pulling back down. But I do not think the currency pullbacks will be successful. fed rate in europe is 3.75 and it must come down. That's why people are fleeing the euro.

Anyway, I should talk about oil as to not anger the OP. hehe..

I see a strong correlation between oil & the S&P as well. I was long yesterday but when oil was hitting up against resistance around 65 I went short. I think the us markets might have one more chance to take out the lows and that would probably be Monday, the last Monday in October. If they do crude will follow, and once the bottom is in for the indexes and they move up crude should follow. So I rest short over the weekend with a stop at 65.60.

LOL


The compettition is on then my friend, as ive got my long on oil over the weekend from $65 with a target set at 67.86, stoploss way way down at 59.26...

And a long on aud/usd from 0.6213, target level set at 0.6615, stoploss 0.6146

 

[cunparis]

Quote from spanish89:

LOL


The compettition is on then my friend, as ive got my long on oil over the weekend from $65 with a target set at 67.86, stoploss way way down at 59.26...

And a long on aud/usd from 0.6213, target level set at 0.6615, stoploss 0.6146

When I said "not true at all" I was referring to trading the dollar as gambling.

I will visit your journal and we can exchange ideas unrelated to oil there.

 

[cunparis]

Quote from spanish89:

LOL

The compettition is on then my friend, as ive got my long on oil over the weekend from $65 with a target set at 67.86, stoploss way way down at 59.26...

And a long on aud/usd from 0.6213, target level set at 0.6615, stoploss 0.6146

I actually think we'll both be right.

Oil is following the indexes. If it's bad for the market, it's bad for the economy, and if it's bad for the economy then it's bad for oil.

The markets are currently down 3-4% and oil is down 2% (overnight session).

However I feel we are very close to a bottom in the markets. The selling pressure is weaking every day, which can be seen by all the positive divergences.

If the indexes bottom out, then I think oil is go into a long overdue rally.

The first resistance will be at 76-77. If it clears that then target is 90. 90 would also be a pullback to the long term trendline from the top. I think it's likely to pullback to 90 and then continue down at least to current levels for a double bottom.

Here's my daily chart. I set my short term targets on an hourly chart, and I usually enter on 15 minute chart.

 

[cunparis]

Dropping like a rock.

First downside target is 60, second is 50. The move will almost definitely stop at 50 and as I said previously, if the indexes rally, it'll probably stop at 60.