Long Oil into Opec Meeting - Your take

[mr888]

$60 weeee, we will hit $30-40 at this rate, no TA will predict how much hedge funds are going to be liquidating, I seen tons of heavy support blown through like a stone through a wet paper bag.
Also to consider, Hang Seng is down over 50% in the last few months alone, so China will not be using that much.

At this point, the only thing that will snap commodities back is strong inflation, which the US will surely experience after this deflationary period is over.

 

[Broken_Trades]

Quote from mr888:

$60 weeee, we will hit $30-40 at this rate, no TA will predict how much hedge funds are going to be liquidating, I seen tons of heavy support blown through like a stone through a wet paper bag.
Also to consider, Hang Seng is down over 50% in the last few months alone, so China will not be using that much.

At this point, the only thing that will snap commodities back is strong inflation, which the US will surely experience after this deflationary period is over.

Maybe

But, last time the USD was at these levels oil was trading at 55-60 dollars.

That's when demand was less and supply was more.

I don't trade directly in oil, just equities.

Can someone provide the volume of contracts traded on oil futures? I was reading an article somewhere saying that the volume in the oil market had pretty much dried up. Could this be a sign that all of the forced liquidations are over now?

 

[cunparis]

Quote from mr888:

$60 weeee, we will hit $30-40 at this rate, no TA will predict how much hedge funds are going to be liquidating,

I am sorry if I gave the impression that I was predicting. I'm just going over the possible outcomes and I'm anticipating what will happen next so that I know in advance what I will do.

This morning I'm going over my pivots for the markets I trade. Oil is following the indexes very closely. As is the Euro. It's all correlated at this time. If the indexes manage to rally then it's time to go long oil and possibly euro.

So far we're seeing a small rally in the indexes, oil, gold, & euro. TF is breaking out of a channel. Traders are probably covering shorts before the open. I held protective shorts over the weekend and I'm probably going to cover as well.

 

[cunparis]

Possible short at 63 *IF* the indexes do not rally..

If they rally then go long above 63.

Futures volume is stable for me.

 

[Broken_Trades]

wow

oil just ran 1.50 in the last hour. Nice.


market rally today?

 

[spanish89]

I got stopped out on my aud/usd trade over the weekend, as soonas the market opened today.

And the oil long i had made from $65 was in a loss...,
But i have now added another buy on on in addition to those 2 from 63.25, with a target order set for these at 67.86.

(Already taken £48 out of that £1 long so far today, and now rebought)


And have nabbed £20 from an aud/usd long again, and now rebought again from 0.6054, target 0.6560.


The signs that we have seen today are all very very encouraging, since once again it was simply the asians who crashed down from what happened on friday, but thenw ehn uk and usa got their hands on the markets they started buying it up consistently.


And even with the dollar rocketing in strength again for no real logical reason, oil is still holding up extremely well now....,




SInce at the end of the there is only so far down the markets can go.


Oil falls to $30s, down falls to 3,000..... then what though???

It wont just sit don and stay there, itd be huge rallies back from anything even close to that low.


So i think its now just a case of just holding your nerve, going long, and waiting for te rallies now,
that will come.

 

[cunparis]

Quote from cunparis:

Possible short at 63 *IF* the indexes do not rally..

If they rally then go long above 63.

Futures volume is stable for me.

As anticipated, the indexes rallied and oil went above 63. I went long at 63.14775. It wasn't as easy as it sounds because it whipped around 63 quite a few times and I took a few losses. Finally said I had to give it lots of room and I did and off it went.

Part of oil's run up is due to the indexes rallying but part of it is because the dollar is falling today. If the dollar continues this could be a very nice rally back up to the down trendline, where we can reverse and ride it down again.

 

[mr888]

From my observation, I would not long oil at all for now, just sell the peaks, the DOW looks like it is setting up to break into the 7000's, if this happens we are going to the $50 range 100%.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from mr888:

From my observation, I would not long oil at all for now, just sell the peaks, the DOW looks like it is setting up to break into the 7000's, if this happens we are going to the $50 range 100%.

Part of me wants to sell oil, but if you look at te monthly chart its crashed $50 in under 1month almost!

Without any pullbacks at all, and so is soo due one.


And if it get sbelow 60 opec will announce another emergecy supply cut, and that would give buyers the excuse to buy oil hard n fast.

 

[mr888]

Quote from spanish89:

Part of me wants to sell oil, but if you look at te monthly chart its crashed $50 in under 1month almost!

Without any pullbacks at all, and so is soo due one.


And if it get sbelow 60 opec will announce another emergecy supply cut, and that would give buyers the excuse to buy oil hard n fast.

OPEC rumors and news get sold off faster then the hurricanes did, fact is they operated just fine 5 years ago at $30 oil with strong US demand and a strong economy, which is obviously not the case now. I believe we are headed to $30-40 range if the DOW slide and dollar rally continues.