London post-brexit as a financial center

[Sig]

I think you are forgetting that the UK .... is the biggest military power in Europe

What exactly do you mean by that point? That the UK will take military action against the EU? That they'll threaten to? Or the EU should be worried because of that? Does anyone, most especially the UK, benefit from the use or threatened use, or "reminder" about "the biggest military power in Europe"? What has this devolved to, a mafia shakedown in the vein of "Nice bunch of peaceful citizens you've got there, hate to see anything happen to them."?
I served in the U.S. military for over 20 years so I'm no peacenik, but for the same reason I'm also not a neocon who somehow thinks a country's military strength should have anything to do with negotiating an exit from the EU!

 

[schweiz]

What exactly do you mean by that point? That the UK will take military action against the EU? That they'll threaten to? Or the EU should be worried because of that? Does anyone, most especially the UK, benefit from the use or threatened use, or "reminder" about "the biggest military power in Europe"? What has this devolved to, a mafia shakedown in the vein of "Nice bunch of peaceful citizens you've got there, hate to see anything happen to them."?
I served in the U.S. military for over 20 years so I'm no peacenik, but for the same reason I'm also not a neocon who somehow thinks a country's military strength should have anything to do with negotiating an exit from the EU!

Not all British seem to have a human view on the world. Especially people with a low level (or no level at all) of education behave like that.
And the EU should do business with a nation that makes threads like that???
Maybe that's why the Russians like the UK... They have a similar behavior.

 

[Visaria]

Serious question...what benefits are there for the UK to remain in the EU?

I've asked this to die hard Remainers and all they can say is some guff about being able to live and work and retire in France! Or that the alternative of being out is beyond their comprehension and that the UK will self destruct. No-one I've spoke to seems to give any positive benefits about being in the EU (bar the chap* who wants to retire to France), only doom and gloom reasons as to why we must not leave.

I understand why the EU would prefer us not to leave...they want our money! £10 billion a year is very nice plus being able to stiff us Brits with overpriced cars and food as well. Some sort of wet EU dream!

* actually I don't know why he doesn't just go there now permanently.

 

[Sig]

Serious question...what benefits are there for the UK to remain in the EU?

I've asked this to die hard Remainers and all they can say is some guff about being able to live and work and retire in France! Or that the alternative of being out is beyond their comprehension and that the UK will self destruct. No-one I've spoke to seems to give any positive benefits about being in the EU (bar the chap* who wants to retire to France), only doom and gloom reasons as to why we must not leave.

I understand why the EU would prefer us not to leave...they want our money! £10 billion a year is very nice plus being able to stiff us Brits with overpriced cars and food as well. Some sort of wet EU dream!

* actually I don't know why he doesn't just go there now permanently.

So first off, I'm an American without business in the U.K., so I'm as close to an unbiased observer in this as there is. That said, the logic you're using here is a bit suspect, again to someone who doesn't have a dog in the fight and is just looking objectively at your logic. If I asked you for reasons not to put your hand in boiling water you'd list a lot of reasons why it's bad and there would be no need to list the reasons why refraining from such an action is good. That's essentially what you're doing with this line of thinking, claiming that any ill effect is irrelevant and that the opponents of Brexit haven't framed them as a positive. To not have all your pharmaceuticals and aircraft parts uncertified outside the U.K. the day of Brexit is a positive, if you demand it be stated that way, wouldn't you agree? To not have a guarded border with Ireland, or even worse somewhere internal like between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country is a positive, no? To not have the vast majority of your remaining auto manufacturing business go away because it no longer makes financial sense to leave it in the UK is a positive, isn't it? There are dozens and dozens of massive financial hits the UK takes from Brexit, but by your criteria apparently because a random dude on the street can't articulate them as positives to you they don't exist?

You also seem to be suffering from a particularly acute zero sum game mentality. In all your posts you assume that there is a fixed size pie and someone else is getting more than you deem is "fair" out of it. Trade and open borders doesn't work that way. You're essentially saying you'd rather have all of this:

instead of 90% of this:

As I tell my kids, life isn't "fair", and you sure as heck don't want it to be "fair" because often that's a suboptimal outcome for everyone including you.

 

[schweiz]

Serious question...what benefits are there for the UK to remain in the EU?

I've asked this to die hard Remainers and all they can say is some guff about being able to live and work and retire in France! Or that the alternative of being out is beyond their comprehension and that the UK will self destruct. No-one I've spoke to seems to give any positive benefits about being in the EU (bar the chap* who wants to retire to France), only doom and gloom reasons as to why we must not leave.

I understand why the EU would prefer us not to leave...they want our money! £10 billion a year is very nice plus being able to stiff us Brits with overpriced cars and food as well. Some sort of wet EU dream!

* actually I don't know why he doesn't just go there now permanently.

The only argument I hear from you is the 10 billion. So for you that's all that will change???
The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.
In 2017 the UK government paid £ 13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £ 4 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at nearly £ 9 billion.

A membership fee isn’t the same as the total economic cost or benefit of EU membership.

Being in the EU costs money but does it also create trade, jobs and investment that are worth more?

The UK can be pretty sure about how much cash they put in, but it’s far harder to be sure about how much, if anything, comes back in economic benefits.
£350 million is roughly what the UK would pay to the EU budget without the rebate. The slogan: "We pay every week £350 million to the EU." is a pure lie. £ 8,909 billion is only £171,32 million a week (£ 8,909 billion divided by 52). So that's already a big manipulation from the pro brexits. The reality is 50% less than the slogan that mislead the public.

The EU makes some payments directly to the private sector, for example to carry out research activities. These payments do not appear in public sector accounts. It is estimated that in 2015, these receipts were worth £1.5billion. Which will reduce the £ 8,909 billion to £ 7,409 billion. Or £142,48 million a week.

How big will be the loss of jobs in the City? Jobs lost, contributions for social security gone, paid taxes gone. Impact on real estate prices in London...
How much industrial production will leave the UK? Especially in the carbuilding sector.
There are still thousands of other changes that will impact the final bill.

 

[tsznecki]

Never knew there was so much hatred between UK people and Continent people.

12 pages of nothing but "I am better than you".

 

[Stockolio]

Serious question...what benefits are there for the UK to remain in the EU?

I've asked this to die hard Remainers and all they can say is some guff about being able to live and work and retire in France! Or that the alternative of being out is beyond their comprehension and that the UK will self destruct. No-one I've spoke to seems to give any positive benefits about being in the EU (bar the chap* who wants to retire to France), only doom and gloom reasons as to why we must not leave.

I understand why the EU would prefer us not to leave...they want our money! £10 billion a year is very nice plus being able to stiff us Brits with overpriced cars and food as well. Some sort of wet EU dream!

* actually I don't know why he doesn't just go there now permanently.

No offence, but I do not think you trade, you do not seem to understand what is going to happen to UK... Are you aware of the clearing house fiasco ? Ill link a few articles to read, use outline.com to open ft paywals

https://www.ft.com/content/045fc67a-db9f-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-moves-euro-clearing-from-london-to-frankfurt
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ess-warning-latest-news-updates-a7775856.html

This will be the biggest demise of a Western Country I have ever seen... The pound will be annihilated, large amount of Financial jobs will transfer out of England to Germany and elsewhere in EU, inflation will be rampant, money markets will slowly dry up and bleed to death, with mortgage delinquency's being high in UK already it will explode and get out of control, assets will depreciate at a fast rate due to worldwide recession by that point, it will be the end of powerful England... Talk about shooting yourself in the foot, brits are dumb as a sack of shit for voting a Brexit... But wait, God Bless the Queen right ? Hahahaha its PUTTING season coming up real soon!

 

[Sig]

Never knew there was so much hatred between UK people and Continent people.

12 pages of nothing but "I am better than you".

I know, I'm waiting to see them start the penis size comparisons, although they kinda already did with the whole "we've got the biggest military" thing.

 

[Visaria]

To not have all your pharmaceuticals and aircraft parts uncertified outside the U.K.

Does the EU certify US aircraft and pharm products? So how come we need our products to be certified by the EU?

o not have a guarded border with Ireland, or even worse somewhere internal like between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country is a positive, no?

We are not having a guarded border with Ireland, not on our side anyway. That's the fundamental question regarding the 'backstop'. We don't want one, the EU says they don't want one in which case that should be struck out of the Withdrawal Agreement but the EU refuses! You don't even understand the issues!

To not have the vast majority of your remaining auto manufacturing business go away because it no longer makes financial sense to leave it in the UK is a positive, isn't it?

They can go if they want, I suspect they will rethink. We are primarily a services economy, 80%.

A lot of the supposedly exodus of City workers to whereever hasn't happened. Very few have left or are planning to leave. Goldman Sachs has just bought a new massive site for its European HQ in London.

So that deals with your concerns.

So no positives then? Apart from you can hop onto the Eurostar without a visa to hang out in Paris at the weekend? Ooops forgot Paris is burning!

 

[schweiz]

Goldman Sachs has just bought a new massive site for its European HQ in London.

HSBCboss Stuart Gulliver has said 1,000 roles will move to Paris in about two years, when Brexit becomes effective. Swiss bank UBS has indicated that 1,000 of its 5,000 staff could shift, possibly to Frankfurt or Madrid. US bank JP Morgan hassaid 4,000 UK jobs are at risk.

Estimates of the impact of Brexit on the City vary widely. Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, has warned that 230,000 finance jobs could disappear while Mark Carney, governor of the bank of England, has played down the risks. He described the City as “Europe’s investment banker” and said European economies could be damaged if their access was disrupted after Britain leaves the EU.

Goldman Sachs’ chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, admitted in January that the bank was holding back from moving new activities into London, as had been previously planned.

However, the bank is continuing to press on with building its new nine-storey London HQ, with the aim of moving in in 2019. The bank could take all the floors or subletto tenants.

It seems to be just a relocation, not additional activities.