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London post-brexit as a financial center
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
A lot of the supposedly exodus of City workers to whereever hasn't happened.
Logical as there is still no Brexit. They wait for the final outcome, which is logical seen the costs and investments involved. They want to avoid that the Brexit will not happen after they moved.
HSBCboss Stuart Gulliver has said 1,000 roles will move to Paris in about two years, when Brexit becomes effective. Swiss bank UBS has indicated that 1,000 of its 5,000 staff could shift, possibly to Frankfurt or Madrid. US bank JP Morgan hassaid 4,000 UK jobs are at risk.
Estimates of the impact of Brexit on the City vary widely. Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, has warned that 230,000 finance jobs could disappear while Mark Carney, governor of the bank of England, has played down the risks. He described the City as “Europe’s investment banker” and said European economies could be damaged if their access was disrupted after Britain leaves the EU.
Goldman Sachs’ chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, admitted in January that the bank was holding back from moving new activities into London, as had been previously planned.
However, the bank is continuing to press on with building its new nine-storey London HQ, with the aim of moving in in 2019. The bank could take all the floors or subletto tenants.
It seems to be just a relocation, not additional activities.
But they are building a 9 storey block? Why would u build a 9 storey block if you are gonna transfer everyone to Europe?
You can google it: 630 jobs so far have left the City. Expectation are of 5000 by Brexit day. Your quote of 250k is scaremongering. Don't worry, we Brexit guys are used to it.
Dude, I hope they all leave. Gonna create plenty of opportunities for UK banks to move in.Logical as there is still no Brexit. They wait for the final outcome, which is logical seen the costs and investments involved. They want to avoid that the Brexit will not happen after they moved.
The U.S. and the EU have an agreement, hammered out after long negotiation and review of the two standards, that allows aircraft parts, pharma, and all other manner of things that were certified under U.S. certification regimes to be allowed in European products and vice versa because both have determined that the other's standard is at least as rigorous as their own. That's how world trade works, very basic stuff that. The U.K.'s products have been accepted in the U.S. because they're certified under the EU standards. Once they're no longer part of the EU two things happen. One, all their existing parts/pills/stuff are instantly no longer certified. That is admittedly a little silly, since they are the same as they were the day before, so it is probable they could sign a bunch of "quick" bilateral treaties with the 50 or so countries they sell most of their products in where this is needed. The far bigger issue is anything made after that day, since standards require not only the standards (which you no longer have and need to write) but also the certifying bodies that ensure things are being made to those standards for existing products, and certifying new products. You've got absolutely zero of that infrastructure and none of the bilateral agreements to allow for it, and until you do your industries are stuck in early 2019. I'm not convincing you here, I'm just telling you, this is how it is, full stop.Does the EU certify US aircraft and pharm products? So how come we need our products to be certified by the EU?
Um, I don't understand the issues? You are going to have no border with the EU, but you're going to have your own tax rates, immigration standards, customs...We don't even have that between the U.S. and Canada and until Trump came along that had to be one of the most friendliest borders in the world. I'm almost speechless that you would assert that I'm the one who doesn't understand this issue!We are not having a guarded border with Ireland, not on our side anyway. That's the fundamental question regarding the 'backstop'. We don't want one, the EU says they don't want one in which case that should be struck out of the Withdrawal Agreement but the EU refuses! You don't even understand the issues!
Why in the world would BMW "rethink" moving a factory that makes Mini's for sale in Europe to Europe once there's no longer free trade between the U.K. and the EU? That vague statement doesn't make a bit of sense! And you're willing to give up a chunk of 20% of your economy, do you have any idea what the human impact of that is?They can go if they want, I suspect they will rethink. We are primarily a services economy, 80%.
So first off GS sold their HQ in London in Aug, not most bullish of signs. I'm not in London to have an on the ground feel for finance job flow, I'll take your word for that but then again I never said that was happening so not sure why you're bringing it up with me?A lot of the supposedly exodus of City workers to whereever hasn't happened. Very few have left or are planning to leave. Goldman Sachs has just bought a new massive site for its European HQ in London.
So that deals with your concerns.
So no positives then? Apart from you can hop onto the Eurostar without a visa to hang out in Paris at the weekend? Ooops forgot Paris is burning!
Like I said, you have an absolutely zero sum mentality. You're displaying the kind of behavior I saw in my kids until they were in middle school, if I offered you $100 and you had to give $10 to your brother or $50 you could keep all for yourself would opt for the $50. The economic benefits of being part of the EU from the lack friction in every aspect of commerce is massive, only someone without any economics background would believe that tariffs and duplicated standards where there were none is a good thing! Again, I don't have a dog in this fight, I'm just observing someone who is so invested that they've thrown all logic out the window.
No, you just don't understand. We want the power to make our own laws, we don't want to subjected to the EU courts, we don't want to pay £10 billion a year to the EU in return for expensive food and other goods. We don't want to bailout the European banks again(we bailed out the Greek ones a few years ago). We don't want uncontrolled immigration here.
I appreciate your concern for our economic well being, but to put it mildly, it's not really your business.
I appreciate your concern for our economic well being, but to put it mildly, it's not really your business.
I think you were just bragging earlier that the U.S. is the U.K.'s biggest trading partner. So if you fuck your country's economy up, to put it mildly, it really is quite literally my business that suffers.No, you just don't understand. We want the power to make our own laws, we don't want to subjected to the EU courts, we don't want to pay £10 billion a year to the EU in return for expensive food and other goods. We don't want to bailout the European banks again(we bailed out the Greek ones a few years ago). We don't want uncontrolled immigration here.
I appreciate your concern for our economic well being, but to put it mildly, it's not really your business.
It's interesting that your point has shifted significantly though. Now that we showed what the benefits are you're moving to a sovereignty issue. Fair enough, if you want to screw your economy to avoid what I agree can be ridiculous EU directives, I guess that's a fair tradeoff to you. Just be aware that's what you're doing rather than couching it in the ridiculous and unsupportable "The only benefit of the EU is so some punter can go on vacation in Europe without a visa" terms. That's just senseless to an outside observer looking at the situation logically.
Jesus, can't anyone read on this forum? I said the US (yes, your country) is our biggest ALLY. Not our biggest trading partner.I think you were just bragging earlier that the U.S. is the U.K.'s biggest trading partner.
It's interesting that your point has shifted significantly though. Now that we showed what the benefits are you're moving to a sovereignty issue. Fair enough, if you want to screw your economy to avoid what I agree can be ridiculous EU directives, I guess that's a fair tradeoff to you. Just be aware that's what you're doing rather than couching it in the ridiculous and unsupportable "The only benefit of the EU is so some punter can go on vacation in Europe without a visa" terms. That's just senseless to an outside observer looking at the situation logically.
My POV has not shifted one iota. You mentioned basically frictionless trade between EU and the UK which would change without a (proper) deal. Is that a positive for remaining in the EU? Well, it certainly is for the EU! They can retain a nice trade surplus with us of £95 billion by, inter alia, sending us expensive food that inefficient EU farmers produce with subsidies paid for by us! We can't atm import food from outside the EU without having to pay very high tariffs. That will change once we leave the EU and can then set any tariff or preferably no tariff on food from outside the EU.
In any case, our trade in goods with the EU is shrinking. We are increasing our trade with the rest of the world. One irony is that Ireland, who the UK is their biggest trading partner, is hit hardest if there is a WTO Brexit, but they are ones who are playing this backstop issue to the hilt and siding with the EU. It's as if they want us to have a hard brexit.
I don't know how many times I have to explain the basic economic principle that just because you have a trade deficit with someone doesn't mean they took your precious share of a fixed tiny pie! Unfortunately we aren't able to have an intelligent discussion if you don't have a basic macro background.Jesus, can't anyone read on this forum? I said the US (yes, your country) is our biggest ALLY. Not our biggest trading partner.
My POV has not shifted one iota. You mentioned basically frictionless trade between EU and the UK which would change without a (proper) deal. Is that a positive for remaining in the EU? Well, it certainly is for the EU! They can retain a nice trade surplus with us of £95 billion by, inter alia, sending us expensive food that inefficient EU farmers produce with subsidies paid for by us! We can't atm import food from outside the EU without having to pay very high tariffs. That will change once we leave the EU and can then set any tariff or preferably no tariff on food from outside the EU.
In any case, our trade in goods with the EU is shrinking. We are increasing our trade with the rest of the world. One irony is that Ireland, who the UK is their biggest trading partner, is hit hardest if there is a WTO Brexit, but they are ones who are playing this backstop issue to the hilt and siding with the EU. It's as if they want us to have a hard brexit.
My bad on the "biggest trading partner" by the way, you did say ally and of course Europe is the U.K.s biggest trading partner.
But they are building a 9 storey block? Why would u build a 9 storey block if you are gonna transfer everyone to Europe?
You have the same disease as me: you cannot read too.
Where did I say that they are gone transfer everyone to Europe? OMG.
Your quote of 250k is scaremongering.
Again:
You have the same disease as me: you cannot read too.
Where did I say that? OMG. I posted an article and a man who is the chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, Xavier Rolet, has warned that 230,000 finance jobs could disappear.