Let's Trade III, by Sicktrader

JScott · Jul 30, 2009

Quote from sicktraderII:

I really think that Magna put me on ignore, he doesn't respond to my PM's anymore. Can someone please ask him about a thread that can be locked where I can post my trades without advice from the village trolls. Thanks.

Not possible. No self-moderation or special treatment happens on this board. Sorry to say. You'll have to start a blog for that.

JS

sicktraderII · Jul 30, 2009

Quote from JScott:

Not possible. No self-moderation or special treatment happens on this board. Sorry to say. You'll have to start a blog for that.

JS

Fine with that then. Will Proceed. Thanks for the spreadsheet.

PS: All that I could get is the 20 trades situation, not the 65 days. Please advise.

EMini-Player · Jul 30, 2009

If you wanna post real-time trade calls, I would highly recommend using Twitter. Way easier to post; people can easily "follow". Register on StockTwits.com and your calls get published to the ES feed on their site, so other S&P traders can also see what you're doing.

PM me if you want any info on getting that setup. It's the best way to go.

sicktraderII · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from Fast_Trader:

If you wanna post real-time trade calls, I would highly recommend using Twitter. Way easier to post; people can easily "follow". Register on StockTwits.com and your calls get published to the ES feed on their site, so other S&P traders can also see what you're doing.

PM me if you want any info on getting that setup. It's the best way to go.

Thanks, but ET gave me an interested audience, Magna hopefully won't ban me again, will accomodate them here. Maybe when I want to sell my "stuff".

See you in the am. Later.

EMini-Player · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from sicktraderII:

Thanks, but ET gave me an interested audience, Magna hopefully won't ban me again, will accomodate them here. Maybe when I want to sell my "stuff".

See you in the am. Later.

LOL...well, if you get banned again, consider using Twitter. I'm not even following your journal since there are too many BS posts (just added TraderZone to my ignore list). Following the calls on Twitter would be heck of a lot easier!

Good luck either way.

Later

adadadog · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from sicktraderII:

Thanks, but ET gave me an interested audience, Magna hopefully won't ban me again, will accomodate them here. Maybe when I want to sell my "stuff".

See you in the am. Later.

sicktraderII:
Your system can be mathematically proven sound:
3 points (15%) target profit and 2 points (10%) stop lose;
The probability of 3points gain > 50%.
Then the mean potential gain for every trade is 5%.
Disregard commision for easy computation.
Then to reach 17bagger, # of trades required:
1.05**60 = 18>17

You only need on trade per day to make it. Actually you probably can make 3 trades to have >50% win of 3 targets/3 stop trades.
so simple and so obvious.

adadadog · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from adadadog:

sicktraderII:
Your system can be mathematically proven sound:
3 points (15%) target profit and 2 points (10%) stop lose;
The probability of 3points gain > 50%.
Then the mean potential gain for every trade is 5%.
Disregard commision for easy computation.
Then to reach 17bagger, # of trades required:
1.05**60 = 18>17

You only need on trade per day to make it. Actually you probably can make 3 trades to have >50% win of 3 targets/3 stop trades.
so simple and so obvious.

One typo:
"3 targets/3 stop trades" should be "3 point target and 2 point stop trades".

ivanbaj · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from sicktraderII:

Fine with that then. Will Proceed. Thanks for the spreadsheet.

PS: All that I could get is the 20 trades situation, not the 65 days. Please advise.

Click on "260 Trades" on the bottom.

adadadog · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from adadadog:

One typo:
"3 targets/3 stop trades" should be "3 point target and 2 point stop trades".

Another thought on this. Because 2 points hit is more like than 3 points be everything else equal. None scientific guesstimate should be that the probability ratio between 2 point hit and 3 point hit is 6/4. Therefore the entry trade should offset the difference. Winning chance of each entry should be > 60%.

Specterx · Jul 31, 2009

Quote from sicktraderII:

First, I have a $5.50 RT, so that is a bit off against my favor. Second, once you all realize that nobody can predict the market, the better off everyone will be. I can't, I just hope to be right 50% of the time. Yes, a gamble, nothing more than guessing heads or tails. Just watch and see how I increase and decrease contracts, it will get me to my goal.

Well, you seem to focus on the money-management aspect of your strategy, when it seems that the critical factor is having an entry/exit method that hits that 3-point target more than 42.5% of the time, with consistency. Regardless of the amount of leverage used (and assuming you can always top up your account), the strategy will be profitable.

I mean, finding an edge like that is the real stumbling block to profitable trading. No amount of money management etc. will turn a basically losing strategy into a profitable one, at least not over the long term. Out of curiosity, how long did it take you to start trading the ES profitably from when you first started?