Let Your Profits Run!

[expiated]

Currently, the most recent calculated level of statistical support for NZDJPY is all the way down at 73.58.

Consequently, a more "sane" take profit target might be based on the intraday price range of 74.77.
But actually, it is not until the rate reaches 74.77 that there is even validation for entering a short position (though the validation level should rise over time).

 

[expiated]

It turns out that a 30-minute chart is the best time frame to use (in my opinion) for what I am currently trying to do with my system.

If I didn’t know what was going on here, this chart would look like a confusing jumble of moving averages to me, but every line on the chart has a specific role to fill, from tracking the exchange rate’s immediate path, to signaling intraday reversals, to confirming intraday reversals, to tracking the intraday trend, to conveying the day-to-day trend, to setting stop loss and take-profit levels, to defining the intraday price range, to approximating the day-to-day price range, to helping paint the big picture.

Knowing the job of each indicator means also knowing precisely when to enter positions, exit positions, and in which direction to do so. It all sounds good (to me) in theory, but I trust I am doing more than just speaking hypothetically. The main variable will be whether I can devote enough attention to the market while working on other projects to give the system a fair shot at being successful.

 

[expiated]

This week I will be testing whether the claim that price will tend to continue rising if positioned above the confirmation trendline, or to continue falling if positioned below it, is a valid contention.

For this reason, I am entering a USDCHF long position @ 1.0027. The other justification for such a move is that the slope of USDCHF's day-to-day trend remains bearish.

Arguments for NOT executing the trade (at least at this time) are that the candlesticks are currently positioned below the daily trendline as well as a down-sloping lagging indicator. Moreover, the shorter-term trendlines are in conflict with one another.

So the question is: Does the position of the exchange rate in relation to the confirmation trendline override all of the negative con factors, or is it better to wait for the "perfect" trade conditions (i.e., the first candlestick to open and close above ALL of the shorter-term trend lines).

 

[expiated]

GBPUSD's rate of exchange is positioned above ALL of the short-term indicators. Moreover, every single one of the longer-term moving averages is bullish with the exception of global bias and its corresponding early alert signal.

I therefore entered a long position @ 1.3002, even though that pair is already in the uppermost region of its daily price range, setting the stop loss and take-profit targets exactly where specified by the forecast model after crunching the numbers, without regard for standard reward-to-risk ratio guidelines.

 

[expiated]

I therefore entered a long position @ 1.3002, even though that pair is already in the uppermost region of its daily price range, setting the stop loss and take-profit targets exactly where specified by the forecast model after crunching the numbers, without regard for standard reward-to-risk ratio guidelines.

The candlesticks dropped below GBPUSD's confirmation trend line. Accordingly, I am now out of this trade.

 

[expiated]

For this reason, I am entering a USDCHF long position @ 1.0027.

I locked in some of my USDCHF profits already, but I'm still long since my take-profit target has not yet been hit.

 

[expiated]

NZDUSD has just made contact with its intraday trend lagging indicator, an early sign of a possible wholesale reversal. Given that the global bias is still bearish, the candlesticks are below ALL the short-term moving averages (including the confirmation trend line), and the pair is in the uppermost region of its daily price range, I entered a short position @ 0.6634

 

[expiated]

The exchange rate has risen above NZDUSD's shortest term trendlines. However, since my guidelines state that price has a tendency to continue falling as long as it remains below the confirmation moving average, I'm going to stay in the trade until and unless the candlesticks climb above this indicator.

UPDATE: I exited this position @ 0.6651.

 

[expiated]

Everything about USDJPY is bullish, so I just entered a long position. I had two options for where to place my stop loss, both of which constituted less than desirable reward-to-risk ratios, so I chose the "lesser of two evils" to test whether it would be sufficient to avoid being stopped out of what would otherwise be a profitable trade.

 

[expiated]

The candlesticks dropped below GBPUSD's confirmation trend line. Accordingly, I am now out of this trade.

GBPUSD is jerking me around, telling me to enter a long position after dropping below all my shortest-term trendlines four hours ago. However, I'm going to remain objective and dispassionate and simply follow the numbers. So I am once again long the pair from 1.3011.