Let Your Profits Run!

[expiated]

The global bias of EURJPY has been more or less neutral ever since the 4th of July, but given that the pair appears to have just ended a 24-day descent of the day-to-day trend, it might opt to rise over the next few days. I will therefore be looking for an opportunity to enter a long position on the next significant pullback.

EURJPY is in the midst of a moderate pullback, so I went ahead and entered a long position @ 128.24 in my two demo accounts. I commented to Onra that the reward-to-risk ratio on such trades should be more like 2:1 or 3:1 as opposed to 1:1, but for this to actually hold true I would need to be trading the system properly by refraining from executing trades until and unless my secondary trigger line confirms that a Bona fide reversal in the intraday trend has more likely than not just taken place.

But since I do not currently have the luxury of monitoring market conditions continuously, I have to execute trades prematurely or risk completely missing out on opportunities again and again. And since I have no idea when price might actually decide to go the other way, I have to give the rates enough leeway to make up their minds before stopping me out, thus rendering a 2:1 or 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio pretty much out of my grasp.

 

[expiated]

USDCAD was being very stubborn about going anywhere. So perhaps because my experiences with NZDUSD have weakened my resolve not to renegotiate my "nonnegotiable" take-profit targets, I lowered my USDCAD exit level in light of the pair's persistent consolidation.

Then, after dropping all the way down to 1.3109, USDCAD climbed all the way back up to where it was even above my original target at 1.3146. So the development of my self-discipline, or my facility at determining when and when not to stick to my guns, or both, clearly need a bit more work.

Somewhat to my surprise, EURJPY has already stopped me out, even with the little bit of wiggle room I provided. In fact, it has fallen so far that my day-to-day tend line is not even bullish anymore.

Nonetheless, I am now long CADJPY from around 85.87 and USDJPY from around 112.91.

 

[expiated]

I'm going to have to make a 35-pip stop loss standard fare if I'm going to continue with this pseudo-swing trade activity given that the market makers are going to be repeatedly stopping me out of my positions just before they take price in the direction I forecasted if I make it any less than that.

 

[expiated]

I was considering entering a long GBPJPY position about five hours ago, but the rate was not quite where it needed to be yet. That was an unfortunate decision however because within that same hour the pair took off like a rocket and within two hours hit what would have been my take-profit target.

 

[expiated]

The formation of a red daily candlestick in the midst of a bullish trend might constitute a nice opportunity to enter a USDCHF long position. However, this pair was turned back in this same region in November of last year, then again in May of this year, and then a third time in July. Consequently, I'm not going to mess with it unless the pair manages to break through, perhaps, the 1.0123 level.

 

[expiated]

Nonetheless, I am now long CADJPY from around 85.87.

Well what do you know? I finally had one of my trades pay off!

 

[expiated]

According to my numbers/data, for NZDUSD to continue pushing north past 0.6622 for any significant amount of time or for any substantial distance would be incredibly bizarre indeed. Couple that with the fact that, according to what I'm looking at, it's global bias is still bearish, and I have to conclude that, statistically speaking, if and when I get confirmation of a reversal south in the intraday trend, I should make every attempt to take advantage of it.

 

[expiated]

The grand sentiment has been relatively neutral for the past four months. Thirteen days ago the pair spent about five days trying to turn north, but has spent the next eight days since then heading south. Consequently, at this point the most promising scenario for an extended period of profiteering would be following a turning north of the day-to-day trend.

EURUSD rejected the 1.1310 level before on the 15th of August, so I need to be watching closely to determine whether or not this might be the perfect opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a fresh push north.

 

[expiated]

Somewhat to my surprise, EURJPY has already stopped me out, even with the little bit of wiggle room I provided. In fact, it has fallen so far that my day-to-day tend line is not even bullish anymore.

So after stopping me out, EURJPY has popped all the way up to 128.48+. I wish I could kick its butt! But once I return to day trading in March, this kind of stuff ain't gonna happen no moe! Or at least hopefully not as often.

 

[expiated]

Even if you're a day trader, you still make the majority of your profits from a small percentage of trades. The rest of the time, you get jerked around. To cope, you need to have knowledge and discipline. All kinds of ways to come up short.

I don’t agree with this 100%. It is obviously true for some, perhaps even true for almost all, but I don’t think it has to be true for everyone, not when it comes to day trading…